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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/2/17 at 5:49 pm to Duke
Posted on 9/2/17 at 5:49 pm to Duke
quote:
878 is plausable with the warmer than normal oceans, lack of shear, and expected shape and dynamics of the storm riding between a big high and a strong trough.
That being said the pressure is almost absurd for the Atlantic. I'd take it as saying an incredibly powerful hurricane at that point is likely but past that, expecting such a deep storm would be a mistake.
878 would be an Atlantic basin record. Typically, I dismiss the models when they show record solutions but we saw the models spit out record rainfall with Harvey. That verified.
2
Posted on 9/2/17 at 5:51 pm to HogX
quote:
After dismissing the 50+ inch rain forecasts as absurd for Texas, I'm not going to discount anything.
Exactly
Posted on 9/2/17 at 6:05 pm to cajunangelle
Supposed to be in Miami next weekend, will have to keep a very close eye (pun intended) on this one.
Posted on 9/2/17 at 6:07 pm to cajunangelle
quote:
Mike Wankum ?Verified account @MetMikeWCVB 19 minutes ago
Meteorologist WCVB-TV Boston.
Interesting extended projects for Hurricane Irma. U.S. model drives it inland. European is much closer to us. #wcvb
hehe... his name is Wankum
Posted on 9/2/17 at 6:08 pm to rds dc
Yeah, I'd typically just dismiss it. To me, the physics of that deep of a storm make enough sense to buy it as a possible solution. No shear, probably going annular by that point, positioning between trough and high.
Posted on 9/2/17 at 6:15 pm to rt3
Posted on 9/2/17 at 6:45 pm to rds dc
HMON gets down to 880, the HWRF isn't out that far but comes close to eliminating the northern Islands
Posted on 9/2/17 at 7:58 pm to rds dc
quote:
874 and finally starting to make the turn
Holy shite. God help anyone in this things path. It makes landfall it will be disastrous
Posted on 9/2/17 at 8:09 pm to rds dc
But approaching Tip?
It's almost unbelievable. Too bad physically it almost makes sense.
It's almost unbelievable. Too bad physically it almost makes sense.
Posted on 9/2/17 at 8:14 pm to deltaland
The thermo says possible. The transport phenomenon syas believe it when you see it.
Posted on 9/2/17 at 10:32 pm to Duke
our 2nd favorite time of the day... new GFS run time 
Posted on 9/2/17 at 10:34 pm to rt3
LSU game going right now. At my limit of six drinks to talk physics. Waiting for the GEFS to roll in to see the spread. And you know, to see where the GFS sends the latest doom cane.
Posted on 9/2/17 at 10:40 pm to Duke
Not really seeing any big changes so far on the 00z
Posted on 9/2/17 at 10:48 pm to rds dc
it's slipping just a tiny bit more south
definitely a bit more south than the 9/2 00z model
definitely a bit more south than the 9/2 00z model
Posted on 9/2/17 at 10:48 pm to rds dc
Slightly SW of 18z and the kicker trough is slightly faster.
Posted on 9/2/17 at 10:49 pm to rds dc
Don't care so much on one run but the split on ensambles. Still too far out to but a single model solution with all the variables past 7 days.
Posted on 9/2/17 at 10:52 pm to rds dc
quote:
Slightly SW of 18z and the kicker trough is slightly faster.
What does that mean? That the trough could potentially miss Irma?
Posted on 9/2/17 at 10:53 pm to Duke
this run has it brushing the Leeward Antilles
Posted on 9/2/17 at 10:55 pm to rt3
quote:
this run has it brushing the Leeward Antilles
That is a concern, the HWRF has been SW of the GFS, if that trend holds then the 00z HWRF will be into the Islands.
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