Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us Hurricane Season - July - TS Emily | Page 5 | O-T Lounge
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re: Hurricane Season - July - TS Emily

Posted on 7/9/17 at 5:24 pm to
Posted by LakeViewLSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2009
17730 posts
Posted on 7/9/17 at 5:24 pm to
Is this going to mess up my trip to Gatlinburg on the 19th?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21271 posts
Posted on 7/9/17 at 10:00 pm to
The media hype with this would be off the charts, luckily it is the long range GFS.

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21271 posts
Posted on 7/9/17 at 10:03 pm to


The Euro EPS from today picked up a little on this but pretty low chances, like 10% or so. It gives about the same amount of attention to potential future 95L.
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
41125 posts
Posted on 7/9/17 at 10:05 pm to
What time does the new GFS run tonight? 11?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21271 posts
Posted on 7/9/17 at 10:07 pm to
quote:

What time does the new GFS run tonight? 11?


10:30 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21271 posts
Posted on 7/9/17 at 10:08 pm to
18z GEFS favors the Gulf over an EC grinder like the OP

Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
130419 posts
Posted on 7/9/17 at 10:10 pm to
Buckle up buckaroos
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 7/9/17 at 10:13 pm to
Geez, that would rough up some shorelines from the Bahamas through New England.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21271 posts
Posted on 7/9/17 at 10:21 pm to
The new hurricane model, HMON, is now running in the test environment and appears to have done pretty well with Eugene in the EPAC.



Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
41125 posts
Posted on 7/9/17 at 11:48 pm to
Posted by Ba Ba Boooey
Northshore
Member since May 2010
4729 posts
Posted on 7/10/17 at 12:02 am to


Hope this is the last time I see this in a forecast model
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
114024 posts
Posted on 7/10/17 at 5:05 am to
Yeah. frick that.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21271 posts
Posted on 7/10/17 at 8:06 am to
quote:


Hope this is the last time I see this in a forecast model


The good thing is that none of the other models are supporting this kind of solution. The Euro, Euro Para, & Euro EPS have nothing right now.
Posted by bamarep
Member since Nov 2013
52499 posts
Posted on 7/10/17 at 8:17 am to
Looks like this may be an active year.


Thanks guys for all the work you do with this stuff.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43362 posts
Posted on 7/10/17 at 8:18 am to
Well the westbank would be gone if something like that happened
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52535 posts
Posted on 7/10/17 at 8:20 am to
quote:

Hope this is the last time I see this in a forecast model

the 06z GFS now has it making landfall around Brownsville Texas

Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36491 posts
Posted on 7/10/17 at 8:20 am to
Yep. No need to really concern yourself with a potential storm until both the Euro and GFS are on it to develop.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21271 posts
Posted on 7/10/17 at 8:33 am to
quote:

Yep. No need to really concern yourself with a potential storm until both the Euro and GFS are on it to develop.



The GFS showing something crazy and Euro not isn't really a surprise. However, the disconnect between the GEFS and Euro EPS right now is a bit odd.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21271 posts
Posted on 7/10/17 at 9:32 am to
What used to be TD4 is still hanging around.



The 00z Euro EPS shows some signs of redevelopment

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21271 posts
Posted on 7/10/17 at 10:23 am to
Models running for old TD4 again. Maybe we get some HMON runs later today?

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