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Started By
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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:32 pm to alabamabuckeye
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:32 pm to alabamabuckeye
quote:
Can someone explain that graphic to me? Do the bigger circles correlate to higher confidence or something?
Bigger circles = more titty milk
0
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:32 pm to lsugolfredman
12z running way slower and weaker
Only a TS as it approaches the Yucatán
Only a TS as it approaches the Yucatán
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:32 pm to alabamabuckeye
quote:
Hm okay, so if we are aggregating, looks like lower MS/AL/panhandle get it?
No
No model has any fricking clue
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:35 pm to Cosmo
So the Euro is running now. What is the EC-Cast then another version of the Euro?
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:36 pm to LegendInMyMind
Ok weather geeks, as an avid offshore fisherman let me ensure you the surface waters in the Northern Gulf are ridiculous hot, the only time in my life that I remember surface water this hot was when Katrina hit. I seriously doubt the models can even account for it.
So any storm going over that is going to develop quickly right? Are there any systems or fronts with wind sheer or something that could weaken a storm that gets into the Northern Gulf next week or we just totally screwed.
Sorry I am wrong it’s only 85
So any storm going over that is going to develop quickly right? Are there any systems or fronts with wind sheer or something that could weaken a storm that gets into the Northern Gulf next week or we just totally screwed.
Sorry I am wrong it’s only 85
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:36 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
Ok weather geeks, as an avid offshore fisherman let me ensure you the surface waters in the Northern Gulf are ridiculous hot, the only time in my life that I remember surface water this hot was when Katrina hit. I seriously doubt the models can even account for it.
Well, you are wrong
SSTs in northern gulf are normal
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:38 pm to Cosmo
bullshite, not what we are seeing
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:38 pm to TutHillTiger
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:39 pm to Cosmo
If you want to follow a trend that matters right now, watch the strength and approach to Cuba. Cuba will play a big role in the future of this system. As it has been over the past few operational runs (GFS and Euro) the likelihood of a glancing blow to Cuba is high.
With this trend, Cuba will be the only significant land interaction for this storm.
With this trend, Cuba will be the only significant land interaction for this storm.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:41 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
If you want to follow a trend that matters right now, watch the strength and approach to Cuba. Cuba will play a big role in the future of this system. As it has been over the past few operational runs (GFS and Euro) the likelihood of a glancing blow to Cuba is high.
With this trend, Cuba will be the only significant land interaction for this storm.
On the current operational Euro run we see it clip the far western end of Cuba, but it emerges off of Cuba still strengthening. Like you said, with the right path there is very little land interaction before it enters the Gulf.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:42 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Normally with it's launch angle over Cuba i would be nervous but looks to be moving north north west after it exits Cuba.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:43 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Like you said, with the right path there is very little land interaction before it enters the Gulf.
The starting point of this system as always been problematic for that reason. Coupled with the better environment out in front of it, the potential on this one is higher than we've seen this season.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:43 pm to lsuman25
Isn’t this wave invest 99L instead of 98 L . ? I haven’t seen I99L for wave east of windwards.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:43 pm to Cosmo
quote:
SSTs in northern gulf are normal
Yep
Far from being unusually warm
We’ve had weeks of cooler nights
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:43 pm to LegendInMyMind
Will it pass through Hebert’s boxes?
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:44 pm to Klingler7
This is 98L. TD 8 will be gaston at 4pm
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:44 pm to SlidellCajun
12z Euro valid next Wednesday afternoon:
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:44 pm to UpToPar
GFS has always sucked
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:44 pm to michael corleone
quote:
Will it pass through Hebert’s boxes?
This is a family friendly board, sir. Take that talk to the aggy board.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 2:45 pm to Cosmo
quote:
No
No model has any fricking clue
The models have plenty of clues, it's just pointless to read too much into outcomes or drive yourself mentally ill with this much time and uncertainty left in play on a storm that haven't fully formed yet. GFS/EURO operational runs both developing it, within a week, for multiple consecutive runs is definitely "a clue", it's just not a guarantee.
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