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Message
re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:14 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:14 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Heck, with this Euro there might be a better chance of severe weather in the southeast than winter weather.
It'll probably change again, though.
Euro sticks with a delayed cold to the Sun/Mon timeframe. I'm always skeptical when this modeling situation plays out.
1
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:17 pm to BallsEleven
quote:
Are half of us on Stormcast too?
Yup....
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:23 pm to BRIllini07
Looks like shorts and flip flops 
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:27 pm to lsugolfredman
quote:
Euro sticks with a delayed cold to the Sun/Mon timeframe. I'm always skeptical when this modeling situation plays out.
Yep, when the timeframe starts to change that's usually a sign that confidence is decreasing.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:27 pm to BallsEleven
quote:
Are half of us on StormCast too?
I saw someone called somebody baw on Stormcast the other day and assumed it was one of you.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:47 pm to LSUGrad9295
quote:May have been a different one. I know I was living behind that Methodist Church on Dalrymple. If I had to guess, it would have been a year or two earlier.
I don't recall it snowing for this event.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 1:50 pm to AlxTgr
So either an Artic Tundra or shorts??
Posted on 2/5/21 at 2:22 pm to Impotent Waffle
Posted on 2/5/21 at 2:25 pm to GEAUXmedic
I remember Exxon. I lived in Dutchtown and my parents had a copper pan hanging on the wall and it shook when the blast happened.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 2:25 pm to GEAUXmedic
Hahahaha, anywhere from 15 degrees to 64 degrees in Birmingham. That shows the total lack of any consensus between the models today.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 2:29 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I have a hard time believing the polar vortex will be sitting along the U.S. border and the Arctic air isn't all the way down to the Gulf Coast. The density of the air mass is just too heavy and will try to ride right down the Plains.
I’m gonna need a translation on that.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 2:34 pm to PillageUrVillage
Basically saying he believes that the Euro model is incorrect and it will be much colder than it’s showing.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 2:38 pm to PillageUrVillage
quote:
quote:
I have a hard time believing the polar vortex will be sitting along the U.S. border and the Arctic air isn't all the way down to the Gulf Coast. The density of the air mass is just too heavy and will try to ride right down the Plains.
I’m gonna need a translation on that.
He means that when a polar vortex of this magnitude is sitting at the US border, the bitter cold is usually going to make its way down to the Gulf coast. The EURO model shows it sitting at the border but holding the bitter cold much further north. He believes the arctic air makes its way down here.
Just as before, run to run will vary and it's important to read between the lines over multiple runs to get a good idea of what to expect. Right now between the lines is pointing at a big cold snap with potential ice/snow.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 2:55 pm to TDsngumbo
Thank you. 
I’ll prepare accordingly.
I’ll prepare accordingly.
This post was edited on 2/5/21 at 2:56 pm
Posted on 2/5/21 at 2:56 pm to TDsngumbo
quite the warming trend today 
Posted on 2/5/21 at 3:05 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Just as before, run to run will vary and it's important to read between the lines over multiple runs to get a good idea of what to expect. Right now between the lines is pointing at a big cold snap with potential ice/snow.
Check out the EURO ens members.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 3:17 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Check out the EURO ens members.
Those ensembles are about as bipolar as my wife one week of the month.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 3:17 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
So either an Artic Tundra or shorts??
Margin of error + or - 50 degrees
Posted on 2/5/21 at 3:20 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
According to this model, BR stays under 25 degrees from 6:00am Friday thru at least 6:00am Monday when the run ends
The Canadian model has a major cold bias for surface temps. With that said, the 500mb pattern that run shows is pretty crazy and would generate legit cold. Chance of verifying? Probably zero
Posted on 2/5/21 at 3:22 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Those ensembles are about as bipolar as my wife one week of the month.
Only one week? Lucky bastard
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