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Message
re: Officials say Louisiana's growth trajectory similar to Italy
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:41 pm to SCTmo
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:41 pm to SCTmo
quote:
Correct me on one point though. Wouldn't this week's results be reflective of last week's tests? Thus, are we able to even see the effect of this week's actions until the following week?
That’s what JBE said
.
quote:
I feel like the lag time from testing really does us a disservice to determine how effective current practices are to stopping spread.
It does, but focusing on the number of cases and not those hospitalized with presumed cases and confirmed cases and the number if deaths. Those are more critical.
quote:
Anyone have guidance as to whether we should be able to expect this lag to tighten up in the near future?
I don’t believe that’s going to happen.
0
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:42 pm to boudinman
Isn’t it also identical to South Korea, which leveled off?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:42 pm to PrivatePublic
quote:
South Korea
From what I understand, the reason many aren't really looking at South Korea is that since they were hit hard by previous epidemic they had some measures that USA/Europe do not and probably would never want to adopt.
Not only did they employ total lockdown much, much faster, I read that they have stuff like telephone "spyware" for the government to collect data on movements and track down and isolate people who were just in close proximity to positive cases.
I think people are looking at Italy because the US response much more closely resembled theirs than South Korea's or even Germany's?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:43 pm to SulphursFinest
I'm not saying you're wrong about unhealthy our state is, but I think the bigger factor is Mardi Gras. Think about how crowded the French Quarter is during that time. Now add an infectious virus into that mix, with visitors from all over the country and all over the world. Hell, they were still going strong in the French Quarter until the State Police had to step in and shut it down.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:44 pm to SulphursFinest
quote:
The product of an unhealthy and uneducated population
This board the last few days is proof and reassures me of making the decision to stay home and not interact with anyone since you can't throw a rock around here without hitting 20 mouth breathers.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:46 pm to wm72
quote:
I think people are looking at Italy because the US response much more closely resembled theirs than South Korea's or even Germany's?
Italy is worst case scenario. That is why everyone wants to compare to them.
Everytime a trend is posted the lag behind time is changed so that America trends with Italy. Lag behind times from 6 days last week to 14 days this week.
No one compares an incoming Hurricane to Hurricane Jerry back in 1990. Hurricane Jerry in 1990 was a nothing hurricane you want do inflict fear by saying Camille, Ivan, Katrina...
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 6:48 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:47 pm to Salmon
quote:
and compared to Italy?
We are two weeks behind them in length of exposure time. That's why extreme measures are being called for to limit person to person contact NOW.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:49 pm to boudinman
quote:
We are two weeks behind them in length of exposure time
I'm aware.
quote:
That's why extreme measures are being called for to limit person to person contact NOW.
I'm aware.
You didn't answer my question though.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:49 pm to boudinman
quote:
We are two weeks behind them in length of exposure time.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:50 pm to boudinman
20 people, and everyone under 70 had other health conditions!!!!!!!
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:54 pm to tigerfan88
I am told our numbers are going to be very high next week simply because the turn around time on the test has been SO SLOW.
As the turnaround time speeds up old numbers will be mixed with new and the rate of true growth in the number of active cases will not be known.
There are a lot of people with the COVID in Louisiana---one doctor told me he doubts 10% have even gone to the doctor. He also says that some large health provider groups are going to mostly online doctor visits and will only perform tests if there is some way the results of the test would change treatments.
Basically the only stat that is real and is good enough to act on is the death toll.
Mardi Gras was a huge factor. One of the doctors I spoke too said every person he has seen here on the North Shore that he expects could have COVID attended Mardi Gras events on the South Shore.
As the turnaround time speeds up old numbers will be mixed with new and the rate of true growth in the number of active cases will not be known.
There are a lot of people with the COVID in Louisiana---one doctor told me he doubts 10% have even gone to the doctor. He also says that some large health provider groups are going to mostly online doctor visits and will only perform tests if there is some way the results of the test would change treatments.
Basically the only stat that is real and is good enough to act on is the death toll.
Mardi Gras was a huge factor. One of the doctors I spoke too said every person he has seen here on the North Shore that he expects could have COVID attended Mardi Gras events on the South Shore.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 6:59 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:55 pm to Golfer
Did you even watch the press conference?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:56 pm to keakar
Think you are over due for your dosage.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:57 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Italy is worst case scenario. That is why everyone wants to compare to them.
Yes, Italy would be a scenario if we did nothing. We didn’t do nothing so I don’t expect an Italy.
quote:
Everytime a trend is posted the lag behind time is changed so that America trends with Italy. Lag behind times from 6 days last week to 14 days this week.
JBE put up a graph indicating that we are on roughly the same course as Spain, Italy and SK. In about a week we should know if we got off the Spain/Italy track and flattened out into the SK track as desired.
quote:
No one compares an incoming Hurricane to Hurricane Jerry back in 1990. Hurricane Jerry in 1990 was a nothing hurricane you want do inflict fear by saying Camille, Ivan, Katrina...
Forecasters do their best to warn of a hurricanes’ potential impact by using another storm as a comparison.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:58 pm to boudinman
quote:
We are two weeks behind them in length of exposure time.
Where did you get this number? What is it based on?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:59 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
Basically the only stat that is real and is good enough to act on is the death toll.
That and the patient count in the hospitals.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:00 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Italy is worst case scenario. That is why everyone wants to compare to them.
The point still stands that South Korea is an awful comparison since the US wasn't employing wide scale testing and trying to track down every possible contact of those testing positive weeks ago like South Korea reportedly did.
At that point our leaders were saying stuff “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA”
“I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”
“The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
“We're going very substantially down, not up.”
Not saying we'll end up following Italy's trajectory --aside from maybe NY that seems to be on the way to one-upping it just in terms of positive cases so far. However, nothing at all suggests any reason to look at South Korea aside from perhaps how to handle something like this better in the future and Italy is the only example with a significantly longer trajectory than us.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:01 pm to boudinman
That doesn't say we are two weeks behind them.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:02 pm to wm72
quote:
Not saying we'll end up following Italy's trajectory --aside from maybe NY that seems to be on the way to one-upping it just in terms of positive cases so far. However, nothing at all suggests any reason to look at South Korea aside from perhaps how to handle something like this better in the future and Italy is the only example with a significantly longer trajectory than us.
The governor of La. used SK as an example of where he wants La. to be.
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