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re: Severe Weather Thread: 4/17 --Extra Bonus Easter Edition-- North LA and Northshore
Posted on 4/10/22 at 12:02 am to Duke
Posted on 4/10/22 at 12:02 am to Duke
The 00z NAM doesn't clear much up, other than to reaffirm that the GFS is faster than everything else. Gotta love it.
Wed morning in NW Arkansas:
Wed morning in NW Arkansas:
This post was edited on 4/10/22 at 12:05 am
2
Posted on 4/10/22 at 12:12 am to LegendInMyMind
And SE TX Tuesday afternoon:
Posted on 4/10/22 at 12:24 am to LegendInMyMind
If anyone is wondering, Duke finally finished his homework:
GumboWX
GumboWX
Posted on 4/10/22 at 1:49 am to LegendInMyMind
Thanks, Duke and Legend
Posted on 4/10/22 at 3:52 am to Duke
quote:yea frick all that. I feel like we’ve been lucky since I’ve been here with being able to mostly avoid severe storms. I was kinda worried we’d be overdue for this.
Ive seen some model soundings in eastern kansas with the STP line at the top of the EF4 box.
Which, you know, not the best.
Posted on 4/10/22 at 3:54 am to LegendInMyMind
Dat Cape 
Posted on 4/10/22 at 8:01 am to LegendInMyMind
What sites do you use to pull those upper air soundings? I remember being able to find them when getting my degree but haven’t done it in so damn long
Posted on 4/10/22 at 8:47 am to Pedro
those hodos sure are spinny
Posted on 4/10/22 at 9:00 am to Pedro
pivotalweather and college of dupage have em for a lot of models.
Posted on 4/10/22 at 9:04 am to Pedro
quote:
I remember being able to find them when getting my degree but haven’t done it in so damn long
Posted on 4/10/22 at 9:05 am to LegendInMyMind
Predictability too low
Posted on 4/10/22 at 9:32 am to The Boat
Don’t need cape for high school algebra 
Posted on 4/10/22 at 9:32 am to Duke
College of dupage was the site I think I used. That seems to be ringing a bell
Posted on 4/10/22 at 9:57 am to Pedro
Both College of DuPage and pivotal have a python package that does a similar readout on the soundings to NOAA. So you get all the little details that you'll remember from mesoscale.
Posted on 4/10/22 at 12:00 pm to Duke
Even tomorrow could be a sneakily interesting day/evening for Arkansas. It mostly stays capped, but if they see some sun and convection isn't too messy, they could get something. Hence, the Slight Risk, I guess.
Posted on 4/10/22 at 4:07 pm to LegendInMyMind
Yep. It is safe to say that the HRRR hates Arkansas tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Posted on 4/10/22 at 4:50 pm to LegendInMyMind
working on a top down for tomorrow and yeah, Arky in the best combo of parameters for severe tomorrow.
Posted on 4/10/22 at 5:27 pm to Duke
What am I likely looking at here Wednesday on a scale of nothingburger to April 27, 2011
Posted on 4/10/22 at 5:30 pm to Duke
quote:
working on a top down for tomorrow and yeah, Arky in the best combo of parameters for severe tomorrow.
Interesting that the CAMs believe in the cap. They keep things subdued into the evening. HRRR is the exception with supercells blowing up. NAM isn't a believer as much.
Posted on 4/10/22 at 5:32 pm to LegendInMyMind
The cap should be there, but a front from the NW could end up giving enough of a kick to fire storms off.
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