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Started By
Message
re: Tropical Storm Cindy
Posted on 6/14/17 at 9:44 pm to rds dc
Posted on 6/14/17 at 9:44 pm to rds dc
This is a complex setup and the models are still struggling with what to do with it all.
Today the models seem to be keying on the trough lifting slowly northward out of CA and the wave that has just passed the islands and entered the Caribbean Sea. The two areas show up in the latest 850vort (low level spin) analysis and should over time start to interact. One may ultimately become the dominate area or they could slug their way NW as a sloppy mess.
The 12z model runs from today didn't really provide much in the way a clarity. The only thing that stands out is that the Euro EPS (ensemble model) shows two distinct clusters of members. One cluster stays weaker and slides off to the NW through the BOC and into Mexico. The other cluster, takes a more northerly or even NE track into the the Florida Panhandle.
The 18z GFS-para seemed to latch on to this solution:
The 18z GEFS also seems to like this solution and has a cluster in the northern Gulf now as well.
TL,DR
Probably still nothing to worry about.
Today the models seem to be keying on the trough lifting slowly northward out of CA and the wave that has just passed the islands and entered the Caribbean Sea. The two areas show up in the latest 850vort (low level spin) analysis and should over time start to interact. One may ultimately become the dominate area or they could slug their way NW as a sloppy mess.
The 12z model runs from today didn't really provide much in the way a clarity. The only thing that stands out is that the Euro EPS (ensemble model) shows two distinct clusters of members. One cluster stays weaker and slides off to the NW through the BOC and into Mexico. The other cluster, takes a more northerly or even NE track into the the Florida Panhandle.
The 18z GFS-para seemed to latch on to this solution:
The 18z GEFS also seems to like this solution and has a cluster in the northern Gulf now as well.
TL,DR
Probably still nothing to worry about.
1
Posted on 6/14/17 at 10:18 pm to rds dc
Flying out of Nola on Wednesday the 21st. Fingers crossed
Posted on 6/14/17 at 10:37 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
Flying out of Nola on Wednesday the 21st. Fingers crossed
Beach next week for me...
Posted on 6/14/17 at 10:40 pm to rds dc
Flying to VA early on the 22nd. God dammit.
Posted on 6/14/17 at 10:43 pm to rds dc
This is where science goes off the rails with predictions. There is just no way that they can guarantee that the red areas will be hit by hurricanes this year. I think I'll just wait and see what really happens. They are going to be so embarrassed if they don't get hit.
Posted on 6/15/17 at 2:20 pm to Dick Leverage
Bump.
Posted on 6/15/17 at 2:23 pm to jcaz
quote:Why would you bump? There ain't shite going on.
jcaz
Posted on 6/15/17 at 8:31 pm to HubbaBubba
2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the
southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Avila
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the
southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Avila
Posted on 6/15/17 at 8:34 pm to rds dc
In the battle of upgraded models (both the GFS and Euro are running parallel upgraded versions right now).
The 18z GFS Para
The 12z Euro Para looks like it moves in around the Houston area next Friday morning. (No public images)
The 18z GFS Para
The 12z Euro Para looks like it moves in around the Houston area next Friday morning. (No public images)
Posted on 6/15/17 at 8:37 pm to rds dc
As a climate whore, I'll be paying attention.
Posted on 6/15/17 at 8:40 pm to rds dc
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/29/17 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 6/15/17 at 8:42 pm to rds dc
I'm supposed to be in the redneck Rivera a week from today.. I hope this doesn't be screw it uo
Posted on 6/15/17 at 8:54 pm to Glock17
Looks like it's going to Mobile, AL
Posted on 6/15/17 at 8:57 pm to LSUTigersVCURams
quote:
Got to figure it's going to be an active season if they're already getting started in June..
There are June systems every 4 or 5 years, with most of the forming in the WCARB or Gulf. The EPAC is much more active early on and has already had 3 named storms.
For the Atlantic, early season activity isn't really a sign of things to come. It is looking more and more like there won't be an El Nino and that certainly raises some concerns for this season.
Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:02 pm to rds dc
Didn't Cindy in 2006 bubble up in the same place at about the same time.
Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:10 pm to Dizz
quote:
Didn't Cindy in 2006 bubble up in the same place at about the same time.
2005. Cindy snuck up on us and was a bitch. Obviously overshadowed 2 months later.
Posted on 6/15/17 at 9:21 pm to Loungefly85
Has peej made his prediction yet?
Posted on 6/16/17 at 7:12 am to rds dc
NHC up to 60%
Overnight models,
GFS Para:
Euro:
Take your pick
quote:
2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or two. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Overnight models,
GFS Para:
Euro:
Take your pick
Posted on 6/16/17 at 7:18 am to rds dc
I've got a dead pine tree that I need to have removed from my backyard. Guy is coming next week. This shite better wait.
This post was edited on 6/16/17 at 7:20 am
Posted on 6/16/17 at 7:20 am to rds dc
Well, that is one hell of a difference.
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