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Started By
Message
3
Posted on 7/25/20 at 1:35 pm to TxWadingFool
quote:
Still there.
Of course, nothing can bring down blue shed.
Posted on 7/25/20 at 1:41 pm to CharlesLSU
quote:
What’s the anticipated location of 92L in, say, two weeks?
Too early to really say. GFS has 92L as an issue for the east coast of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina in about a week and a half. Other models also take it on a track toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, meaning it would probably be an east coast threat.
Posted on 7/25/20 at 1:45 pm to CharlesLSU
Who knows with certainty for now. Today it looks like it could be a bigger threat for the East Coast but still 10+ days out. A lot will change between now and then. Lets see what they say when it's near the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday/Thursday.
Posted on 7/25/20 at 1:56 pm to lsuman25
Hanna still strengthening as it approaches land
still a Cat 1 but winds increased to 85 mph (also... Gonzalo downgraded to a tropical depression)
still a Cat 1 but winds increased to 85 mph (also... Gonzalo downgraded to a tropical depression)
quote:
Hurricane Hanna Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
200 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER
RADARS FINDS HANNA HAS STRENGTHENED...
A TCOON observing station at Laguna Madre, Texas, recently reported
a sustained wind of 63 mph (102 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph (128
km/h).
Data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the minimum central pressure inside the eye of Hanna is 973 mb
(28.73 inches).
SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 96.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Stewart
quote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Hanna Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
100 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
...EYE OF HANNA GETTING CLOSER TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE PADRE ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 96.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barra el Mezquital Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* Mesquite Bay to Sargent Texas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should
monitor the progress of Hanna. Interests in northeastern Mexico
should also monitor the progress of this hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Hanna
was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and buoy data near
latitude 27.0 North, longitude 96.7 West. Hanna is moving toward the
west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-southwest
is expected by late afternoon and tonight, and that motion should
continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna
should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane
warning area by late afternoon or early this evening.
Data from Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight
strengthening is still possible before Hanna makes landfall later
today. Rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km). A TCOON observation station at Laguna Madre, Texas,
recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (91 km/h) and a gust to
70 mph (113 km/h).
Reports from NOAA buoy 42020 located near the center of Hanna's eye
indicate that the minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas including Corpus Christi Bay...4-6 ft
Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay...2-4 ft
North of Port Aransas to Sargent including Copano Bay , Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1-3 ft
North of Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can
vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in
portions of the warning area and will spread inland through the
afternoon and evening.
RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with
isolated maximum totals of 18 inches through Sunday night in south
Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash
flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to
moderate river flooding in south Texas.
3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and
Louisiana coasts.
SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect
much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and overnight over
parts of the lower to middle Texas coastal plain.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
This post was edited on 7/25/20 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 7/25/20 at 2:02 pm to lsuman25
GFS and Euro generally agree on track of 92L 10 days out...If they continue to agree for the next few days, the threat to the US east coast, or elsewhere if the track changes, will be real.
Posted on 7/25/20 at 2:13 pm to CharlesLSU
quote:
What’s the anticipated location of 92L in, say, two weeks?
Posted on 7/25/20 at 2:15 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Looks familiar
Posted on 7/25/20 at 2:20 pm to supadave3
Yeah, and these storms the past 2 months have trended towards the lower probability ends so that's not a good trend to follow even if they haven't amounted to anything but nothingburgers. We might end up going into greek this year. It looks like an active season.
Posted on 7/25/20 at 2:21 pm to NorthEndZone
They have trended towards the east coast the past 2 months too so not really hard to believe.
Posted on 7/25/20 at 2:22 pm to NorthEndZone
103 mph gust measured at Rincon Del San Jose NOAA station.
Pressure of 986 millibars
Google translate tells me that means "Corner of Saint Joseph" is in a hurricane.
LINK
Pressure of 986 millibars
Google translate tells me that means "Corner of Saint Joseph" is in a hurricane.
LINK
Posted on 7/25/20 at 2:40 pm to NorthEndZone
Looks like we have landfall:
Posted on 7/25/20 at 2:43 pm to NorthEndZone
TWC quoting NWS: "significant structural damage in Port Mansfield"
Posted on 7/25/20 at 3:02 pm to rt3
wonder if they'll bump it up to 90 mph right at landfall?
still cat 1... but just for effect
still cat 1... but just for effect
quote:
Hurricane Hanna Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
300 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
...WESTERN EYEWALL OF HANNA BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE
COAST OF TEXAS...
A TCOON observing station at Laguna Madre, Texas, recently reported
a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust to 104 mph (167
km/h).
NOAA buoy 42020 recently measured a gust to 87 mph (141 km/h) at a
height of 12 ft (3.7 m) in the eastern eyewall of Hanna.
The most recent observations from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure
inside the eye of Hanna is 973 mb (28.73 inches).
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 97.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Posted on 7/25/20 at 3:07 pm to rt3
They may, but it would be a stretch. It probably has a gust of 90, I would imagine.
Posted on 7/25/20 at 3:14 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
They may, but it would be a stretch. It probably has a gust of 90, I would imagine.
I feel if that 5 mph was the difference between Cat 1 & Cat 2 they'd definitely pull the trigger and bump it up
Posted on 7/25/20 at 3:56 pm to rt3
cold water continuing to work on Hurricane Douglas... now down to a Cat 1 storm... and still has another 12 hours or so before impacting the Hawaiian Islands
Posted on 7/25/20 at 3:56 pm to rt3
Gonzalo is dead
now just a remnant low... no longer a tropical system
now just a remnant low... no longer a tropical system
Posted on 7/25/20 at 3:59 pm to rds dc
James Spann is saying on FB that dual polarization radar captured bird and insects trapped in the eye of the hurricane.
Any of you mets want to comment on that phenomenon?
Any of you mets want to comment on that phenomenon?
Posted on 7/25/20 at 4:01 pm to rt3
they did it... they bumped Hanna up to 90 mph winds
quote:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Hanna Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
...HANNA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT NEARS THE TEXAS COAST...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON PORTIONS OF PADRE ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 97.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning has been replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning
north of Port Aransas, Texas.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Port
O'Connor, Texas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Port Aransas Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barra el Mezquital Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* Port Aransas to Port O'Connor Texas
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property
should have already been completed.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring within the warning areas.
Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should
monitor the progress of Hanna. Interests in northeastern Mexico
should also monitor the progress of this hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hanna was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 97.2 West. Hanna is moving
toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within
the hurricane warning area later this afternoon or early this
evening. After landfall, the center of Hanna will move inland over
south Texas tonight and move into northeastern Mexico on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is still possible before Hanna
makes landfall in a few hours. Rapid weakening is expected after
Hanna moves inland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km). A TCOON observation station at Laguna Madre, Texas,
recently reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) and a gust
to 76 mph (122 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas including Corpus Christi Bay...4-6 ft
Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay...2-4 ft
North of Port Aransas to Sargent including Copano Bay , Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1-3 ft
North of Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can
vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
occuring in portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread inland through this evening.
RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches through
Monday in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila,
Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain will produce
life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and
isolated minor to moderate river flooding.
Hanna is also expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along the
upper Texas and Louisiana coasts.
SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect
much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and
overnight over parts of the lower to middle Texas coastal plain.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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