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Posted on 1/4/26 at 12:42 pm to stout
It will take time and money. And current prices will delay the investments needed. Here’s a good take. Canada has a few years to get it right ir lose long term.
Razor Oil
@RazorOil
As a heavy oil expert, with 18 patents in heavy oil production technology development and optimizations, and prior experience as a senior technical SME at a supermajor U.S. oil company that Venezuela still owes money to….I wanted to correct some of the misguided takes circulating on X.
While Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, those figures do not translate directly into immediate production flow rates or rapid incremental increases, which demand substantial time and investment.
With the next budget season not arriving until Q3, U.S. producers are currently committed to ongoing projects and contractual obligations. Venezuela's oil faces uniquely difficult geology, low ultimate recovery rates, and severe infrastructure deficits. From my work alongside Venezuelans who actually operated projects there, many cited rampant corruption and logistical nightmares as reasons they left the country.
At current oil prices, the massive capital required for meaningful production growth simply isn't justified—one leading expert and good friend, estimates it would take at least 3 years to double output, adding about 1 million bbl/d… so not by next week….Unlike Canada, Venezuela has zero SAGD projects ZERO !!; any greenfield heavy oil development there would require at least $30,000 per flowing barrel, meaning roughly $1 billion!! for every 30,000 bbl/d increment achievable in perhaps three years. They mainly produce cold production, which is cheaper I’ll admit!! But with slower flow rates and rely on diluents and polymers which are enhanced recoveries ( EOR) that require capital and supply of these chemicals and infrastructure… more money.
Finally, people seem to overlook the U.S. Midwest (PADD 2), which already processes around 4 million bbl/d of crude, predominantly from Canada ( see pic specifically on Canada) Venezuela lacks the logistical or practical means to displace that supply. Hope this clarifies things for everyone and helps the understanding of this volatile situation. Thx
Jorge Jraissati
@JraissatiJorge
Very smart comment. In Venezuela, our estimations is that to fully regain our 3 million daily oil barrel production, it would take us a decade. And your investment numbers coincide with us.
Adrian Wade
@DrAdrianPWade
So Canada is effectively on notice to start building its pipelines NOW because - while things will be "OK" for 2-3 years till the end of this Carney administration - thereafter the US won't need anywhere near as much Canadian oil as Venezuela will be back on-line?...
Razor Oil
@RazorOil
Yes
Jamie Nutt
@JamieNutt13
How much diluent per barrel do you think?
Mkt talk amongst crude traders is , Venz can get back to 1.1 quite easily then follow your path, as described .
Razor Oil
@RazorOil
For API 10 maybe 20-30% diluent to flow via pipe again lots of questions on volumes/material balance, logistics
Razor Oil
@RazorOil
As a heavy oil expert, with 18 patents in heavy oil production technology development and optimizations, and prior experience as a senior technical SME at a supermajor U.S. oil company that Venezuela still owes money to….I wanted to correct some of the misguided takes circulating on X.
While Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, those figures do not translate directly into immediate production flow rates or rapid incremental increases, which demand substantial time and investment.
With the next budget season not arriving until Q3, U.S. producers are currently committed to ongoing projects and contractual obligations. Venezuela's oil faces uniquely difficult geology, low ultimate recovery rates, and severe infrastructure deficits. From my work alongside Venezuelans who actually operated projects there, many cited rampant corruption and logistical nightmares as reasons they left the country.
At current oil prices, the massive capital required for meaningful production growth simply isn't justified—one leading expert and good friend, estimates it would take at least 3 years to double output, adding about 1 million bbl/d… so not by next week….Unlike Canada, Venezuela has zero SAGD projects ZERO !!; any greenfield heavy oil development there would require at least $30,000 per flowing barrel, meaning roughly $1 billion!! for every 30,000 bbl/d increment achievable in perhaps three years. They mainly produce cold production, which is cheaper I’ll admit!! But with slower flow rates and rely on diluents and polymers which are enhanced recoveries ( EOR) that require capital and supply of these chemicals and infrastructure… more money.
Finally, people seem to overlook the U.S. Midwest (PADD 2), which already processes around 4 million bbl/d of crude, predominantly from Canada ( see pic specifically on Canada) Venezuela lacks the logistical or practical means to displace that supply. Hope this clarifies things for everyone and helps the understanding of this volatile situation. Thx
Jorge Jraissati
@JraissatiJorge
Very smart comment. In Venezuela, our estimations is that to fully regain our 3 million daily oil barrel production, it would take us a decade. And your investment numbers coincide with us.
Adrian Wade
@DrAdrianPWade
So Canada is effectively on notice to start building its pipelines NOW because - while things will be "OK" for 2-3 years till the end of this Carney administration - thereafter the US won't need anywhere near as much Canadian oil as Venezuela will be back on-line?...
Razor Oil
@RazorOil
Yes
Jamie Nutt
@JamieNutt13
How much diluent per barrel do you think?
Mkt talk amongst crude traders is , Venz can get back to 1.1 quite easily then follow your path, as described .
Razor Oil
@RazorOil
For API 10 maybe 20-30% diluent to flow via pipe again lots of questions on volumes/material balance, logistics
Posted on 1/4/26 at 12:46 pm to stout
So…truck nuts?
Posted on 1/4/26 at 1:25 pm to jmarto1
I like all the downvoted like Louisiana has done so well in the past. Broke arse state with a ton of resources
Posted on 1/4/26 at 1:27 pm to stout
Posted on 1/4/26 at 2:02 pm to stout
That boon was once a happening thing for all those refiners listed until the Venezuelan dictators cratered it.
Take back assets in Venezuela which refiners built and get the profit spread going again.
Take back assets in Venezuela which refiners built and get the profit spread going again.
Posted on 1/4/26 at 2:08 pm to Icansee4miles
quote:
Shocked that Citgo Lake Charles and Corpus aren’t on this list. At one time, they got virtually all their crude from Venezuela, as they were owned by their national oil company PVDSA.
I had to make sure my memory was correct...
Citgo Petroleum Corporation is primarily owned by Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), which is the state-owned oil company of Venezuela.
Posted on 1/4/26 at 2:10 pm to stout
Great read.
How about how long and how much investment would be needed to start getting meaningful natural gas into market? They have a shite tom of that too.
How about how long and how much investment would be needed to start getting meaningful natural gas into market? They have a shite tom of that too.
Posted on 1/4/26 at 2:12 pm to stout
quote:
These refineries include massive delayed coking and hydrocracking units that:
• Break down thick, asphalt-like crude
• Remove sulfur and metals
• Convert “junk” barrels into high-value gasoline, diesel, and jet fue
RIP Shell Convent
Posted on 1/4/26 at 2:16 pm to loogaroo
From Grok (comparing light/sweet to heavy/sour oil):
I actually though there would be a bigger price gap with the extra effort needed to refine the heavy stuff.
quote:
Light sweet crude oil, such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is generally priced higher than Venezuelan heavy sour crude, exemplified by the Merey blend. This difference arises because light sweet crude (low density, low sulfur) is easier and cheaper to refine into high-value products like gasoline, while heavy sour crude (higher density, higher sulfur) requires more complex processing and desulfurization, leading to a discount.As of early January 2026:WTI (light sweet benchmark) trades around $57–58 per barrel.
Venezuelan Merey (heavy sour) has historically traded at significant discounts, often $10–15 per barrel below Brent (or similar relative to WTI) in recent periods when sanctions affected flows.
Heavy sour crudes like Merey or Mexico's Maya typically sell at $10–20 per barrel below light sweet benchmarks, depending on market conditions, refinery demand, and geopolitics. Recent geopolitical events involving Venezuela (e.g., U.S. actions and supply disruptions) have created short-term tightness in heavy crude markets, potentially narrowing differentials temporarily, but oversupply pressures in 2026 are expected to keep heavy sour grades discounted.For the most precise real-time comparison, check sources like Oilprice.com, which lists prices for both WTI/Brent and Merey among many global blends. The exact difference fluctuates daily based on supply, demand, and quality spreads.
I actually though there would be a bigger price gap with the extra effort needed to refine the heavy stuff.
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