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Posted on 8/5/21 at 9:23 am to jonnyanony
quote:
Apologies if you're not a native speaker, but ...
In addition to being a stats expert, you’re also super great in the verbal arts. So rather than questioning your native tongue, I’ll just chalk it up to what’s lost in text that you don’t follow nuance inthe written word well. It happens to us all.
I note that you don’t bother staying on point. Instructive, I’d say. I’m guessing it finally became clear that the ebb/flow of deaths relative to excess deaths is a real thing. But if you’re still confused by that, I recommend you do some reading on the links I pasted above. It isn’t that complicated, but maybe those guys explain it in a way you can understand.
This post was edited on 8/5/21 at 9:35 am
Posted on 8/5/21 at 9:28 am to Vastmind
quote:This does not mean that the test confuses flu for covid. It means that a test is coming out that tests for both with one swab. Quicker and more convenient.
that can’t distinguish between COV 19 and the flu
quote:
CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season.
Posted on 8/5/21 at 9:33 am to Jake88
Solid conversation in this thread. Bookmarked
Posted on 8/5/21 at 9:42 am to zatetic
Wait a minute, does this mean NC State should be Natty Champs?
Posted on 8/5/21 at 10:01 am to David_DJS
quote:
I note that you don’t bother staying on point.
I addressed your misunderstanding, I'm not sure what else to tell you. You misunderstood my clearly stating that a model wouldn't exclusively look at last year as saying a model wouldn't look at last year at all.
This, despite already talking about rolling windows.
quote:
I’m guessing it finally became clear that the ebb/flow of deaths relative to excess deaths is a real thing.
It has always been clear. You seem to be the only one that thinks this is novel or not known or not accounted for in the modeling.
You keep harping on it without accepting that trained statisticians absolutely know about this and it's in the model.
And yes, this is my field. And I'm sorry to be curt here, but you are out of your element.
Posted on 8/5/21 at 10:34 am to monstranceclock76
quote:
This HAS NOT been properly studied in humans, the old way has
It has now
ETA: if only for the last 10 months or so.
This post was edited on 8/5/21 at 10:35 am
Posted on 8/5/21 at 2:00 pm to jonnyanony
quote:
You misunderstood my clearly stating that a model wouldn't exclusively look at last year as saying a model wouldn't look at last year at all.
You really aren't good at this.
Do you understand that at that point of the discussion, all I needed to prove my point was that prior year actual deaths were inputs for the model in establishing the excess death threshold?
quote:
It has always been clear.
Wait, so when you posted -
quote:
This is nonsensical. Sorry.
In response to a post of mine that read, "Your mistake is believing this is about statistics. It’s not. It’s about how deaths from the perspective of the excess death metric comes/goes in waves."
You were actually acknowledging that, indeed, by the nature of how the model determines its excess death threshold, "waves" above/below the threshold can be seen due to the variability of the severity of a flu season year to year?
Nevermind your confusing posts, what are you arguing about then? If you understand how the severity of a flu season (as an example) nudges up or down the excess death threshold in ensuing years, and how when a few mild flu seasons lead into a harsh one, the excess death threshold is out of phase with actual deaths.
quote:
And yes, this is my field. And I'm sorry to be curt here, but you are out of your element.
You sound like Fauci, "I am science" or whatever that ignorant line was.
I don't care if it's your field. I'm not going to pretend to know how good you are at what you do. But you clearly are ignorant about the CDC's excess death metric and how it relates to real life, if you are arguing that 600K excess deaths over the Covid period is inconsistent with the statement that the majority of Covid deaths involve people that are already very unwell from diseases such as cancer, dementia, heart disease, wild obesity, etc. Even the CDC itself has reported that only 6% of Covid deaths involve a person with no apparent comorbidities. I believe they've also reported that the typical Covid death involves an average of 3 comorbidities.
So as I said a few times here, this isn't an argument about stats. You don't have to self-identify as a "stats expert" to understand how the CDC models - I mean, there's a big beautiful graph you can look at that tells the story very clearly.
The real argument here is about an 80 yo smoker that's 80 lbs overweight and with a medical history that includes COPD, diabetes and 4 heart attacks - who then dies when he suffers his 5th heart attack while fighting off the virus. If you've got to assign a principal cause of death, is it accurate to suggest he died of Covid, or is it more accurate to suggest he died because he was an obese smoker suffering from serious heart disease, biding his time for the big one?
If we're deciding whether to educate our kids or maintain means of production in our economy, do you think it makes sense to shut everything down because that guy, and hundreds of thousands of others like him, died while carrying a virus that is pretty tame for those not old/frail or already severely unwell?
This post was edited on 8/5/21 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 8/5/21 at 2:05 pm to Jake88
quote:
This does not mean that the test confuses flu for covid. It means that a test is coming out that tests for both with one swab. Quicker and more convenient.
Yes, the flu disappeared.
Posted on 8/5/21 at 4:00 pm to David_DJS
quote:
o you understand that at that point of the discussion, all I needed to prove my point was that prior year actual deaths were inputs for the model in establishing the excess death threshold?
That is not what you said at all. Hence your "ebb and flow" not being accounted for nonsense. You have jumped all over the place and to this point, been embarrassingly wrong the whole time.
quote:
You were actually acknowledging that, indeed, by the nature of how the model determines its excess death threshold, "waves" above/below the threshold can be seen due to the variability of the severity of a flu season year to year?
Nope. Read better. The model accounts for this, but standard deviation is how we adjust for it. Basic stats stuff.
quote:
You really aren't good at this.
The irony.
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:03 pm to jonnyanony
quote:
That is not what you said at all. Hence your "ebb and flow" not being accounted for nonsense. You have jumped all over the place and to this point, been embarrassingly wrong the whole time.
You're borderline retarded. Whether liberal or not, you argue like one - the more wrong/lost you are, the louder, more self-righteous and indignant you become. My arguments have been consistent, and the only aspect that someone could argue I'm wrong about is an opinion - mine being that an 85 yo suffering with late stage cancer in hospice that dies while positive for Covid didn't die from Covid, they died with it. You can argue otherwise, but that's an opinion. I'm comfortable with mine, and in the real world am confident it's the more defensible/appropriate position. This is more and more clear as the Covid shitshow plays out.
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:07 pm to David_DJS
I'm not a liberal, take that shite elsewhere.
You fundamentally misunderstand basic statistics and frankly at this point I think you're too embarrassed to just save face.
Your "ebb and flow" argument is one of the dumbest things I've ever read.
Congrats.
You fundamentally misunderstand basic statistics and frankly at this point I think you're too embarrassed to just save face.
Your "ebb and flow" argument is one of the dumbest things I've ever read.
Congrats.
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:08 pm to Jake88
quote:
This does not mean that the test confuses flu for covid.
Which base pair is the PCR identifying? And how does that guarantee the test isn’t sending false positives via conflating?
Be specific.
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:30 pm to theunknownknight
Wouldn't it be comical if the covid19 virus was a modified cold or not even modified!!!
I don't know what the truth is here but the idea that covid19 is all a lie seems implausible. But it also seems I plausible that the aren't hiding something. This is the fourth place I have heard the story of them hiding the virus info.
Couple that with all the obvious lies and misinformation they have been spreading and all the coverups and Cuomo type shite that it is painfully obvious that something nefarious is going on!
I don't know what the truth is here but the idea that covid19 is all a lie seems implausible. But it also seems I plausible that the aren't hiding something. This is the fourth place I have heard the story of them hiding the virus info.
Couple that with all the obvious lies and misinformation they have been spreading and all the coverups and Cuomo type shite that it is painfully obvious that something nefarious is going on!
Posted on 8/5/21 at 8:47 pm to jonnyanony
quote:
I'm not a liberal, take that shite elsewhere.
You fundamentally misunderstand basic statistics and frankly at this point I think you're too embarrassed to just save face.
Your "ebb and flow" argument is one of the dumbest things I've ever read.
Congrats.
I didn't say you're liberal. I said you argue like one. And you do.
My understanding of statistics is fine, and I am smart enough to realize the points actually being debated here aren't statistics.
"Ebb and flow" isn't an argument, and it's hardly my explanation of how deaths/the excess death threshold relate to each other. If you want to educate yourself, go read the material I linked earlier in the thread - written by people recognized as experts by their work, rather than self-identifying as one on an internet message board.
Posted on 8/6/21 at 3:58 pm to stuntman
quote:
To be clear, I’m not saying that viruses don’t exist, and it’s quite clear that the Wuhan Institute of Virology colluded with Fauci, Daszak, the NIH, Baric and others to develop a weaponized spike protein
This has been my stance since i read about Fauci's connection to the Wuhan lab. Which means the government is either absolutely complicit in the making of this virus or at the very least ignorant in not knowing how their lab donations are being spent. But Fauci, he is 100% complicit and needs to be executed as an enemy of our country, along with every other motherfricker in that lab.
Posted on 8/6/21 at 3:59 pm to zatetic
Hey David Icke said the same thing in April 2020, man he's crazy.
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