Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us Historian who has correctly predicted every winner since 1984 | Page 3 | Political Talk
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re: Historian who has correctly predicted every winner since 1984

Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:31 pm to
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
139920 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:31 pm to
Since 1984 the only two elections that were difficult to pick 4 days out were GWB/Gore and Trump/Hillary. The rest were pretty easy to pick.
Posted by PUB
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2017
20795 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:33 pm to
Posted by hottub
Member since Dec 2012
3653 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 7:37 pm to
I watched that segment on Martha’s show and did a simple ddg search and saw it was false.... reason 1,529,509,248 not to trust the media
Posted by LSUAlum2001
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
48257 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:04 pm to
quote:

Says it was Trumps to lose, before Covid,


Covid was a Democrat plan to scuttle Trump’s 2020 re-election.
Posted by Fat Bastard
alter hunter
Member since Mar 2009
90020 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:10 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/30/20 at 8:18 pm
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
64144 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:11 pm to
Well there's always the first time.
Posted by LSURulzSEC
Lake Charles via Oakdale
Member since Aug 2004
79367 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:12 pm to
all streaks end...
Posted by SoFlaGuy
Fort Lauderdale
Member since Apr 2020
2865 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:21 pm to
Every team is on a winning streak until they lose. Bound to happen.
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12566 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:23 pm to
I thought Fox was pro-Conservatives ? Was there a recent change ? I have friends who are obsessed with Hannity and Tucker.
Posted by bbrownso
Member since Mar 2008
8985 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:59 pm to
Well I have these two who predict the opposite:

Professor Whose Economic Model Predicted Trump Win in 2016 Says President Will Beat Biden
quote:

John Antonakis, a professor of Organisational Behaviour from Switzerland's Lausanne University, said the model's projection for 2020 put Trump ahead of Democratic challenger Joe Biden in the race for the White House.

However, Antonakis cautioned the forecast—which takes into account economic conditions, incumbency effect and candidates' relative charisma levels—was presented "with humility" given the complicating "fog" produced by the coronavirus pandemic.


Model that predicted 5 of past 6 presidential elections has Trump in 2020 by 'landslide'
quote:

Helmut Norpoth, who teaches at Stony Brook University, is giving Trump "a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide," the Long Island, N.Y., school said in a recent press release.

Norpoth's "Primary Model" has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election since 1996, missing only George Bush's 2000 victory over Al Gore. (When the model is "applied to previous elections," Stonybrook said, it "correctly predicts an impressive 25 of the last 27.")
Posted by SOKAL
Member since May 2018
4124 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:09 pm to
2020 is a year like mo other.


What that translates too, IDK.
Posted by AggieHank86
Texas
Member since Sep 2013
44345 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:16 pm to
quote:

If he’s predicted every presidential winner correctly since 1984 he’s a fricking idiot because that means he either picked Mondale over Reagan or Carter over Reagan, depending on whether they mean his winning streak started in 1984 or that was the last time he missed.
Or maybe he did not make any predictions before 1984.
Posted by OweO
Plaquemine, La
Member since Sep 2009
121162 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:16 pm to
quote:

If he’s predicted every presidential winner correctly since 1984 he’s a fricking idiot because that means he either picked Mondale over Reagan or Carter over Reagan, depending on whether they mean his winning streak started in 1984 or that was the last time he missed.



That.. Or he didn't start picking the winner until 1984.
Posted by phutureisyic
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2016
3584 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:18 pm to
Sorry but nobody predicted Trump to win in 2016.
Posted by dafif
Member since Jan 2019
8166 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:19 pm to
Certainly there is a record of a prediction in 2016?
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
163914 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:22 pm to
quote:

Since 1984, historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman has correctly guessed who would win the presidency, even President Donald Trump's surprise victory in 2016.

Using keys or indicators to predict the nation's future leader, Lichtman's scale awards a true or false value to 13 statements. So long as six or more of these statements are true, the incumbent party stays in the White House. The keys factor in strength of the economy, incumbency, contests, policy changes, scandals, social unrest and even the charisma of the incumbents and challengers.
He measured the scandals as if they mattered, he measured impeachment as if it mattered. He also is judging a covid economy.

Whole different ballgame as never before in history-as usually a President is not impeached unless both parties agree and the charges are real.
Posted by OweO
Plaquemine, La
Member since Sep 2009
121162 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:25 pm to
quote:

Sorry but nobody predicted Trump to win in 2016.


3 people who correctly predicted Trump win in 2016
Posted by KinSemo
the woods
Member since Jun 2020
172 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:35 pm to
same old shite, Trump can win.....
Trump Landslide Comming
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26443 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:36 pm to
I can tell you every President that has won an election too and I say Trump wins this one. See, that wasn't hard
Posted by CheEngineer
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2019
4234 posts
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:56 pm to
Yeah this time is slightly different than the past elections Trump has this in the the bag.
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