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re: Latest Nate Silver model shows Trump by almost 21
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:47 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/8/24 at 11:47 pm to rds dc
just a few days later, as of today, he has Trump up by 28 now in odds. 64-36%
Trump is doing what no republican has done in forever if he’s polling this well with the youth. Should be a runaway in reality:
Trump is doing what no republican has done in forever if he’s polling this well with the youth. Should be a runaway in reality:
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Posted on 9/9/24 at 12:09 am to Night Vision
Nate Silver is getting attacked for being a conservative. I’m pretty sure he is a liberal at least in his political beliefs.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 2:26 am to Night Vision
The debate could make a huge change in his model. His model has Trump with 277.1 and Harris 260.9 electoral votes. That’s a tight electoral college victory. It also has Harris with a 58% chance of winning the popular vote.
If the debate causes 1 state to flip a different direction it could help Trump win by a bigger margin or it could flip the electoral college in favor of Harris.
Tuesday night should be entertaining
If the debate causes 1 state to flip a different direction it could help Trump win by a bigger margin or it could flip the electoral college in favor of Harris.
Tuesday night should be entertaining
Posted on 9/9/24 at 2:34 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Trump is doing what no republican has done in forever if he’s polling this well with the youth. Should be a runaway in reality:
The data is all over the place
If that’s the same poll someone posted about a few hours ago Siena with the NYT it has Harris winning the election.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:07 am to TigerCoon
quote:
Wait. I'm a Trump guy, but these numbers look made up.
Nate Silver doesn’t publish poll numbers. Those are odds to win the election.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:26 am to FlexDawg
quote:
Now we just have to guess what they’re going to try to do to stop this.
Well, that's obvious. All they have left is to try to kill him again.
Or maybe they'll take out Kamala instead if they can't get to Trump, then they can blame Trump for it, do yet another replacement and hope for better results.
Both Trump and Kamala better have their security details working at full capacity.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:46 am to AulderMagee
Nate Silver getting roasted on Reddit
Posted on 9/9/24 at 6:22 am to Rebel
what are the odds based on if not poll numbers?
Posted on 9/9/24 at 6:24 am to Night Vision
Posted on 9/9/24 at 6:51 am to TigerCoon
The chance of winning.
But the polls and even who polls are figured in, Nate isn’t suggested Trump is up 21.
He just have greater odds of winning the EC. Trump wins 60 times in simulations Kamala wins 40 times.
Nate still has Kamala winning popular vote
But the polls and even who polls are figured in, Nate isn’t suggested Trump is up 21.
He just have greater odds of winning the EC. Trump wins 60 times in simulations Kamala wins 40 times.
Nate still has Kamala winning popular vote
Posted on 9/9/24 at 1:34 pm to Rebel
quote:Exactly. I feel like the median poster in the threads on this topic believes Trump is "up" 21 points.
The chance of winning.
But the polls and even who polls are figured in, Nate isn’t suggested Trump is up 21.
He just have greater odds of winning the EC. Trump wins 60 times in simulations Kamala wins 40 times.
Nate still has Kamala winning popular vote
Posted on 9/9/24 at 1:37 pm to FlexDawg
quote:
Now we just have to guess what they’re going to try to do to stop this.
Yep. Probably looking for a silver bullet this time.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 1:47 pm to MizzouBS
quote:
If that’s the same poll someone posted about a few hours ago Siena with the NYT it has Harris winning the election.
The latest NYT/Siena poll has Trump up by 1 point head to head in the general election, and up by 2 with 3rd parties factored in.
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Posted on 9/9/24 at 1:48 pm to SDVTiger
Most everybody who posts on their board hopes Trump wins. Give it up VD. Be a man.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 1:52 pm to Sofaking2
quote:
Nate Silver is getting attacked for being a conservative. I’m pretty sure he is a liberal at least in his political beliefs.
He's the epitome of a smug shitlib, but he appears to be honest at least.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:18 am to Bamatab
quote:
The latest NYT/Siena poll has Trump up by 1 point head to head in the general election, and up by 2 with 3rd parties factored in.
The poll has Trump up nationally, but down in Mich, Wisc, PA, NC, and NV and up in GA and Arizona.
That’s why the data is all over the place
NYT/Sienna poll
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 7:22 am
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