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Message
re: The U.S. Energy Independent
Posted on 1/19/21 at 9:48 pm to cwill
Posted on 1/19/21 at 9:48 pm to cwill
The US is down 2 mmbo/d YoY don’t think it’s going to get back to 12-13 mmbo anytime soon with most of production coming from high decline shale a lot of which were uneconomical
Really the US oil industry has been the largest most effective non-profit organization as far as benefiting the public with low energy prices
Really the US oil industry has been the largest most effective non-profit organization as far as benefiting the public with low energy prices
3
Posted on 1/19/21 at 9:51 pm to whikyncoke
That was going to be my question for you guys -- do you think that new peak in lostinbr's graph is sustainable or is it one last heroin blast shot in the arm from throwing a bunch of money at sources of production that will decline quickly?
Posted on 1/19/21 at 9:51 pm to billjamin
quote:
Nailed it. Which is why I feel like I keep flip flopping back and forth between them
I think the PE plan now is to fund a portfolio of alt-cos and pray a spac wings in and bails them out before they try to make their money back with a 6% ROR.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 9:54 pm to whikyncoke
quote:
Really the US oil industry has been the largest most effective non-profit organization as far as benefiting the public with low energy prices
There was an amazing guest on Slate Money who wrote a book about this. I can’t remember her name or book and can’t seem to find it, but she laid it out pretty well. Maybe someone else heard it and remembers.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 9:56 pm to trinidadtiger
What is your definition of independence? If you still have to go into the market and buy oil what’s the point?
Posted on 1/19/21 at 9:57 pm to cwill
quote:
I think the PE plan now is to fund a portfolio of alt-cos and pray a spac wings in and bails them out before they try to make their money back with a 6% ROR.
I finally gave up on the PE backed o&g and renewable startups mid year and just said screw it I’ll pretend to be retired early and play around with utility companies for a while.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 9:57 pm to Bunk Moreland
I think we’ll get down to 9-10 mmbo/d sometime this year and that’s probably sustainable at 50-60$/bbl, really need some higher prices to break out of that range
Associated gas will fall with falling oil but if we stay in the 2.50-3 range we can sustain 100 bcf/d
This is probably short-mid term eventually we will run out of locations but may find some more too
Associated gas will fall with falling oil but if we stay in the 2.50-3 range we can sustain 100 bcf/d
This is probably short-mid term eventually we will run out of locations but may find some more too
Posted on 1/19/21 at 9:57 pm to whikyncoke
quote:
Really the US oil industry has been the largest most effective non-profit organization as far as benefiting the public with low energy prices
Only winners were the early movers that flipped acreage and the American consumer. Shareholders got torched...billions incinerated.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 10:00 pm to whikyncoke
quote:
I think we’ll get down to 9-10 mmbo/d sometime this year and that’s probably sustainable at 50-60$/bbl, really need some higher prices to break out of that range
Associated gas will fall with falling oil but if we stay in the 2.50-3 range we can sustain 100 bcf/d
This is probably short-mid term eventually we will run out of locations but may find some more too
Don’t disagree, but I don’t see any bull case for gas. They’re turning on 4 well pads in the Haynesville at 200mmcf/d...at this dog price.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 10:04 pm to cwill
The PEs made out like robbers for sure. Same is now happening with the early movers on solar who invested right as the O&M (and panel) costs dropped dramatically.
Whoever is left investing in O&G, is going to be slapping monstrous rates on future investments.
Whoever is left investing in O&G, is going to be slapping monstrous rates on future investments.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 10:07 pm to cwill
Yea the only real short term bull gas case is how quickly does the demand rebound which its starting to vs drilling lag based on how cash strapped the companies that own the Marcellus/Haynesville are but if there is a run up it’ll be short lived unless India starts using propane instead of wood to cook
Posted on 1/19/21 at 10:12 pm to billjamin
quote:
There was an amazing guest on Slate Money who wrote a book about this. I can’t remember her name or book and can’t seem to find it, but she laid it out pretty well. Maybe someone else heard it and remembers.
I’d bet it was Bethany McLean...she broke the Enron story and coauthored “The Smartest Guys In The Room”.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 10:22 pm to cwill
quote:
I’d bet it was Bethany McLean
That’s her. It was a segment about her book Saudi America.
Posted on 1/19/21 at 11:33 pm to idlewatcher
Posted on 1/19/21 at 11:42 pm to RBTiger
quote:
This NEXT administration is about to take that away!
It was nice while it lasted. Hiden will make America dependent again. Hiden is MADA!
Posted on 1/19/21 at 11:57 pm to waiting4saturday
quote:
$3.50/gal for gas is sure going to be nice for my bonus in a few years.
What if nobody is buying gas, because they don't need it, because they don't have jobs to go to, and unemployment has run out, so they can't afford it?
Posted on 1/20/21 at 12:57 am to RBTiger
Posted on 1/20/21 at 1:05 am to kingfish225
Are you really trying to claim presidents play some huge role in energy deficits?
We have been on a path to independence for a looong time
Obama, Bush, Trump, etc....they didn’t do shite
We have been on a path to independence for a looong time
Obama, Bush, Trump, etc....they didn’t do shite
Posted on 1/20/21 at 1:06 am to cwill
If we can spin a (13ft tall by 40ft in length) rectangle craft end to end so fast that it flies and gives and illusion of a cube in a sphere, we don’t need oil.
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