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re: Trump blaming FED for economic slowdown is disingenuous
Posted on 10/24/18 at 2:30 pm to NC_Tigah
Posted on 10/24/18 at 2:30 pm to NC_Tigah
Correct but we should not expect 4% on going according to what industrial companies are saying in their third quarter earning releases. Both CAT and MMM, bellwether companies on the economy, lowered guidance and reported disappointing sales.
This post was edited on 10/24/18 at 2:31 pm
1
Posted on 10/24/18 at 2:36 pm to I B Freeman
I have never met a person like you before. You are AWESOME! Never change
Posted on 10/24/18 at 2:38 pm to NC_Tigah
Also the FED is predicting the long run forecast to be 1.8%. Less than half of the 4%.
Mr. Trump should like that the FED thinks the economy's growth is slowing down. That means they probably will not raise rates significantly. Of course he will not be able to blame the FED for the slowdown impacts of the tariffs either.
Mr. Trump should like that the FED thinks the economy's growth is slowing down. That means they probably will not raise rates significantly. Of course he will not be able to blame the FED for the slowdown impacts of the tariffs either.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 2:52 pm to I B Freeman
quote:How did that line go? . . . . Obamanomics is calling and wants its 1.8% growth policies back.
Also the FED is predicting the long run forecast to be 1.8%
You are talking about the same Fed projection models predicting 2.1% growth for 2018. Upper End of Range for '18 was 2.4%. LINK
Posted on 10/24/18 at 3:15 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Obamanomics is calling and wants its 1.8% growth policies back.
the 1.8 is a measure of potential GDP. if it's too low, it's not by more than a few tenths of a percentage-point. our population growth & productivity growth can not sustain faster than that on average
quote:
You are talking about the same Fed projection models predicting 2.1% growth for 2018. Upper End of Range for '18 was 2.4
not the same as the long-run estimate. those are short-run projections, pre-tax-cut & pre-spending-increase at that, and when inflation was still surprisingly low
Posted on 10/24/18 at 3:18 pm to I B Freeman
DJIA is off more than 600 right now at 24583 that is 9.1% off of it's high.
That is with one DOW component--Boeing--up 4% today. Some are taking huge hits.
Huge drop but not the worse we have seen.
That is with one DOW component--Boeing--up 4% today. Some are taking huge hits.
Huge drop but not the worse we have seen.
This post was edited on 10/24/18 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 10/24/18 at 3:20 pm to HeyHeyHogsAllTheWay
quote:
Trump didn't blame the Fed for anything. He merely gave his OPINION that raising the rates now would slow the economy down.
So Trump only blames him in his opinion? LOL. A little hackish, bud.
This post was edited on 10/24/18 at 3:21 pm
Posted on 10/24/18 at 3:23 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
UTX 122.11 -7.91 (-6.08 %) 1,353
CAT 112.34 -6.64 (-5.58 %) 3,014
MSFT 102.32 -5.78 (-5.35 %) 17,824
DIS 111.61 -6.24 (-5.29 %) 3,445
INTC 42.42 -2.08 (-4.67 %) 10,551
GS 209.18 -9.38 (-4.29 %) 1,105
MMM 184.51 -8.04 (-4.18 %) 772
WBA 74.20 -3.06 (-3.96 %) 3,497
PFE 42.48 -1.62 (-3.67 %) 6,592
DWDP 52.68 -2.00 (-3.66 %) 3,375
Rough day for these mainstays. NASDAQ is worse.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 3:23 pm to NC_Tigah
NC_, you know I respect you very much but your argument that the economy is booming along ignores the best forecaster of future economic activity and that's the stock market.
The stock market is clearly indicating a slowdown coming and it may even be a recession, i.e., two consecutive calendar quarters of negative GDP.
Both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 Index closed today well below where we ended 2017. To put it another way, we've now given back all of the market gains we enjoyed from the tax cut law.
Leading the way down has been the financials and industrial manufacturers.
Caterpillar, Inc. is forecasting a dead stop in large infrastructure construction. It's down from $153 just twelve trading days ago to close at $112.34 today. Cummins Engine, another reliable indicator of building and construction, is down from $153 just since October 9 to close at $128 today and is well off its 52-week high of $194 it reached in January.
We can debate whether it's because of the Fed raising rates or the tariffs (I happen to believe it's both) but it's not debatable that a slowdown is approaching if we listen to what stock investors are saying.
The stock market is clearly indicating a slowdown coming and it may even be a recession, i.e., two consecutive calendar quarters of negative GDP.
Both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 Index closed today well below where we ended 2017. To put it another way, we've now given back all of the market gains we enjoyed from the tax cut law.
Leading the way down has been the financials and industrial manufacturers.
Caterpillar, Inc. is forecasting a dead stop in large infrastructure construction. It's down from $153 just twelve trading days ago to close at $112.34 today. Cummins Engine, another reliable indicator of building and construction, is down from $153 just since October 9 to close at $128 today and is well off its 52-week high of $194 it reached in January.
We can debate whether it's because of the Fed raising rates or the tariffs (I happen to believe it's both) but it's not debatable that a slowdown is approaching if we listen to what stock investors are saying.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 3:26 pm to LSURussian
CAT specifically cited tariffs and F said earlier tariffs would cost them $1 billion.
But LSURussian is right and some blame should be directed at both.
But LSURussian is right and some blame should be directed at both.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 3:27 pm to I B Freeman
quote:Lots of beats today though after hours. International and tariffs are a major concern though.
Rough day for these mainstays. NASDAQ is worse.
This post was edited on 10/24/18 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 10/24/18 at 3:50 pm to LSURussian
quote:Absolutely. No question. I took The OP economic reference as not to our future economy, but rather the present.
the best forecaster of future economic activity and that's the stock market.
quote:Two things:
but your argument that the economy is booming along ignores
(1) Again, the OP economic reference was not to the future economy. It was to the present. An implication we are in a present economic slowdown would indicated the markets should have been a forecast harbinger several months ago.
(2) Exogenous and potentially correctable forces (tariffs and the "blue wave" election) are a drag on present markets, but market performance could flip quickly if one or both of those concerns are resolved.
So if current downward market performance proves transient, odds of economic downturn would dissipate.
ETA: None of that assumes increased Fed rates are not impacting as well. They are. Fears of excessive rate increase are mentioned every time the markets dip. That causation, unlike others above, would portend an economic slowdown.
This post was edited on 10/24/18 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 10/24/18 at 3:57 pm to I B Freeman
Stocks are down because of the behavior of the Democratic Party. If there is a Red Wave, BOOM!
Posted on 10/24/18 at 4:04 pm to FLTech
quote:How so?
Stocks are down because of the behavior of the Democratic Party.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 4:08 pm to LSURussian
The market is down because uncertainty = sell. The market is uncertain how the midterms will go.
The fed raising rates is ridiculous. Let the economy run hot for a bit. Inflation is low. There is no rush to raise rates.
The fed raising rates is ridiculous. Let the economy run hot for a bit. Inflation is low. There is no rush to raise rates.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 4:10 pm to LSURussian
quote:With the Senate no longer in play, the impact of a narrowly-controlled Dem House would not seem to be something causing a selloff. Yet the "blue-wave" potentially unwinding Trump's economic policies (Tax and Reg cuts) gets routine mention during market declines.
How so?
Posted on 10/24/18 at 4:38 pm to I B Freeman
quote:If the Fed honestly believes that projection, yet is aggressively raising rates, Powell probably needs to be removed.
Fed keeps its long-run forecast for economic growth unchanged at 1.8%
Posted on 10/24/18 at 4:39 pm to Man4others
quote:Just to be clear, exactly as many shares were bought today as were sold.
The market is down because uncertainty = sell.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 4:41 pm to NC_Tigah
Cited time and time again this week by talking heads on CNBC are the fact that more and more companies are looking at the tariffs being more long term than short term and most people are pessimistic that Trump will resolve anything with the Chinese this year. It is amazing how dedicated he seems to be to protecting steel from everybody. He did a deal with Mexico and Canada and left the 25% tariffs in place. Now they are talking about doing quotas with both instead of tariffs--even worse.
Uncertainty over his actions have IMHO contributed much more to this correction in the markets than anything the FED has done.
When companies like F start saying tariffs will have a $1 BILLION impact on their bottom line it is a huge deal. (Even smaller companies like NWL say they will cost them $200 million on the bottom line.)
Uncertainty over his actions have IMHO contributed much more to this correction in the markets than anything the FED has done.
When companies like F start saying tariffs will have a $1 BILLION impact on their bottom line it is a huge deal. (Even smaller companies like NWL say they will cost them $200 million on the bottom line.)
This post was edited on 10/24/18 at 4:43 pm
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