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Message
re: Updated betting market numbers - now the Senate
Posted on 6/10/20 at 1:55 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 6/10/20 at 1:55 pm to Big Scrub TX
How can a run of the mill schmuck like me put money against those numbers?
Posted on 6/10/20 at 1:55 pm to Big Scrub TX
Why do you want higher taxes? We have it really fricking good in Texas without the stuff the rest of the country pulls. US jobs were skyrocketing because of tax breaks until the lockdown.
You're an idiot to cheer this on.
You're an idiot to cheer this on.
Posted on 6/10/20 at 1:57 pm to Presidio
I don’t disagree, I’m just saying Gardner has a fighting chance at least now.
I think R’s go -1 (McSally and Gardner)
Peters is the one who could keep it even. I think that’s the R’s best chance to flip a seat outside Alabama.
I think R’s go -1 (McSally and Gardner)
Peters is the one who could keep it even. I think that’s the R’s best chance to flip a seat outside Alabama.
Posted on 6/10/20 at 1:57 pm to BugAC
quote:The math is not good for that. GOP will be defending 23 seats, the Dems just 12.
What seats are flipping? If anything, the R's pick up more seats.
2018 was the year the GOP needed to make gains. The numbers were basically reversed then. Yet the GOP did nothing to help itself. Alabama should flip to R, meaning Dems will need to unseat 4-5 Repubs to take control.
57% seems high.
But unless Graham and Johnson get off their asses with some effective Russia reveals, odds are about 50:50 of the GOP losing the Senate.
This post was edited on 6/10/20 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 6/10/20 at 3:07 pm to Magician2
quote:
But even at 52 the GOP is neutered if a Supreme Court vacancy opens because I see easily 3 defectors.
Posted on 6/10/20 at 3:08 pm to indianswim
quote:Where in any thing I have posted have I "cheered" any of this? I want Trump to win and I want the Senate to stay republican. I also was one of THE most anti-shutdown voices on this board.
Why do you want higher taxes? We have it really fricking good in Texas without the stuff the rest of the country pulls. US jobs were skyrocketing because of tax breaks until the lockdown.
You're an idiot to cheer this on.
Posted on 6/10/20 at 3:09 pm to BugAC
quote:
What seats are flipping?
McSally will most likely lose.
Dems think they can also pick up, GA, NC, and CO.
Posted on 6/10/20 at 3:10 pm to Big Scrub TX
current battle ground Senate Map on 270-to-win
even if D's win all 4 battleground states (NC, CO, AZ, ME) then it is 50/50
Posted on 6/10/20 at 3:18 pm to Big Scrub TX
President Hillary approves of these polls.
Posted on 6/10/20 at 4:10 pm to Auburn1968
quote:They aren't polls.
President Hillary approves of these polls.
Posted on 6/10/20 at 4:13 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Start puckering for the tax increases that are coming.
That's the least of our worries.
And actually, taxes will go down for CA and NY
Posted on 6/10/20 at 4:15 pm to upgrayedd
quote:Depends on who you are. Certainly SALT reverting back to pre-2017 will help some people. Anyone making over $400K, they are definitely going up. And cap gains and corp likely going up too. Don't see how the market doesn't get hammered if this happens (except for the obvious infinite spending the Congress/Fed are poised to do.)
And actually, taxes will go down for CA and NY
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:05 pm to Big Scrub TX
bump
LINK
quote:
Our (soon-to-be-published) national polling average over time:
March 1: Biden 49.7, Trump 45.6 (+4.1)
Apri 1: Biden 49.2, Trump 43.1 (+6.1)
May 1: Biden 49.5, Trump 43.4 (+6.1)
June 1: Biden 49.2, Trump 42.9 (+6.3)
June 15 (today): Biden 50.2, Trump 42.1 (+8.1)
quote:
So it's not like the race has actually swung *that* much. But 4 points vs. 8 points is sort of an inflection point where you go from "whoa, the Electoral College could still be close" to "whoa, Biden up everywhere". But things could easily enough swing back in Trump's direction.
quote:
Maybe also noteworthy that Trump has lost ground more than Biden has gained it. There may be some R-leaning voters who are just fed up with things right now but could come back to Trump later. Then again, Biden is >=50% right now, whereas Clinton peaked at 46% in national polls.
LINK
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:11 pm to Big Scrub TX
I mean it's not up for debate the last month and last 2 months have been a real low point for trump. He's at his bottom basically
He can easily swing right back up.
Biden getting more in the public will not raise his number. No one can objectively state otherwise. Hence why trump is kicking off these campaign rallies earlier than expected. Force Biden out.
He can easily swing right back up.
Biden getting more in the public will not raise his number. No one can objectively state otherwise. Hence why trump is kicking off these campaign rallies earlier than expected. Force Biden out.
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:35 pm to BugAC
LOL you are crazy if you think the Republicans will pick up seats. They will lose CO, MT, AZ, ME, probably one of the GA seats and NC. They will pick up AL.
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:42 pm to BugAC
quote:
Biden will lose worse than Clinton.
I'm starting to believe that it isn't even Biden's intent to be POTUS. I am almost at a point where I believe that whoever he chooses to be his running mate will become POTUS in a very short period of time after his inaguration. And yes, it will be an AA female. Probably just a conspiracy theory on my part, but I am starting to believe that.
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:45 pm to Big Scrub TX
Horse shite.
Here’s a poll: 100% chance the Sun comes up tomorrow...
Here’s a poll: 100% chance the Sun comes up tomorrow...
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:47 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Biden at 50.6% for pres and Senate at 57% to go Dem.
Keep dreaming. The Sharps love clown's like you.
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:49 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Then again, Biden is >=50% right now, whereas Clinton peaked at 46% in national polls.
Hillary was consistently over 50% in mid to late October. How did she end up doing?

Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:52 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
There may be some R-leaning voters who are just fed up with things right now but could come back to Trump later.
What could someone be fed up with Trump right now? He hasn’t done anything controversial to be upset with.
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