Domain: tiger-web1.srvr.media3.us Updated betting market numbers - now the Senate | Page 2 | Political Talk
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re: Updated betting market numbers - now the Senate

Posted on 6/10/20 at 1:55 pm to
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora
Member since Sep 2012
74574 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 1:55 pm to
How can a run of the mill schmuck like me put money against those numbers?
Posted by indianswim
Plano, TX
Member since Jan 2010
21850 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 1:55 pm to
Why do you want higher taxes? We have it really fricking good in Texas without the stuff the rest of the country pulls. US jobs were skyrocketing because of tax breaks until the lockdown.

You're an idiot to cheer this on.
Posted by BACONisMEATcandy
Member since Dec 2007
46703 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 1:57 pm to
I don’t disagree, I’m just saying Gardner has a fighting chance at least now.

I think R’s go -1 (McSally and Gardner)

Peters is the one who could keep it even. I think that’s the R’s best chance to flip a seat outside Alabama.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
137214 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

What seats are flipping? If anything, the R's pick up more seats.
The math is not good for that. GOP will be defending 23 seats, the Dems just 12.

2018 was the year the GOP needed to make gains. The numbers were basically reversed then. Yet the GOP did nothing to help itself. Alabama should flip to R, meaning Dems will need to unseat 4-5 Repubs to take control.

57% seems high.
But unless Graham and Johnson get off their asses with some effective Russia reveals, odds are about 50:50 of the GOP losing the Senate.
This post was edited on 6/10/20 at 1:58 pm
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
39327 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 3:07 pm to
quote:


But even at 52 the GOP is neutered if a Supreme Court vacancy opens because I see easily 3 defectors.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
39327 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

Why do you want higher taxes? We have it really fricking good in Texas without the stuff the rest of the country pulls. US jobs were skyrocketing because of tax breaks until the lockdown.

You're an idiot to cheer this on.
Where in any thing I have posted have I "cheered" any of this? I want Trump to win and I want the Senate to stay republican. I also was one of THE most anti-shutdown voices on this board.
Posted by Rebel
Graceland
Member since Jan 2005
142770 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 3:09 pm to
quote:

What seats are flipping?


McSally will most likely lose.

Dems think they can also pick up, GA, NC, and CO.
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
14615 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 3:10 pm to


current battle ground Senate Map on 270-to-win

even if D's win all 4 battleground states (NC, CO, AZ, ME) then it is 50/50

Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
25803 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 3:18 pm to
President Hillary approves of these polls.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
39327 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 4:10 pm to
quote:

President Hillary approves of these polls.
They aren't polls.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138552 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

Start puckering for the tax increases that are coming.

That's the least of our worries.

And actually, taxes will go down for CA and NY
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
39327 posts
Posted on 6/10/20 at 4:15 pm to
quote:


And actually, taxes will go down for CA and NY
Depends on who you are. Certainly SALT reverting back to pre-2017 will help some people. Anyone making over $400K, they are definitely going up. And cap gains and corp likely going up too. Don't see how the market doesn't get hammered if this happens (except for the obvious infinite spending the Congress/Fed are poised to do.)
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
39327 posts
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:05 pm to
bump

quote:

Our (soon-to-be-published) national polling average over time:

March 1: Biden 49.7, Trump 45.6 (+4.1)
Apri 1: Biden 49.2, Trump 43.1 (+6.1)
May 1: Biden 49.5, Trump 43.4 (+6.1)
June 1: Biden 49.2, Trump 42.9 (+6.3)
June 15 (today): Biden 50.2, Trump 42.1 (+8.1)


quote:

So it's not like the race has actually swung *that* much. But 4 points vs. 8 points is sort of an inflection point where you go from "whoa, the Electoral College could still be close" to "whoa, Biden up everywhere". But things could easily enough swing back in Trump's direction.


quote:

Maybe also noteworthy that Trump has lost ground more than Biden has gained it. There may be some R-leaning voters who are just fed up with things right now but could come back to Trump later. Then again, Biden is >=50% right now, whereas Clinton peaked at 46% in national polls.


LINK

Posted by Magician2
Member since Oct 2015
14553 posts
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:11 pm to
I mean it's not up for debate the last month and last 2 months have been a real low point for trump. He's at his bottom basically

He can easily swing right back up.

Biden getting more in the public will not raise his number. No one can objectively state otherwise. Hence why trump is kicking off these campaign rallies earlier than expected. Force Biden out.
Posted by FlyingTiger1955
Member since Jan 2019
5765 posts
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:35 pm to
LOL you are crazy if you think the Republicans will pick up seats. They will lose CO, MT, AZ, ME, probably one of the GA seats and NC. They will pick up AL.
Posted by Kracka
Lafayette, Louisiana
Member since Aug 2004
42235 posts
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:42 pm to
quote:

Biden will lose worse than Clinton.


I'm starting to believe that it isn't even Biden's intent to be POTUS. I am almost at a point where I believe that whoever he chooses to be his running mate will become POTUS in a very short period of time after his inaguration. And yes, it will be an AA female. Probably just a conspiracy theory on my part, but I am starting to believe that.
Posted by Knight of Old
New Hampshire
Member since Jul 2007
12887 posts
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:45 pm to
Horse shite.

Here’s a poll: 100% chance the Sun comes up tomorrow...
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
39640 posts
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:47 pm to
quote:

Biden at 50.6% for pres and Senate at 57% to go Dem.

Keep dreaming. The Sharps love clown's like you.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
176513 posts
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:49 pm to
quote:

Then again, Biden is >=50% right now, whereas Clinton peaked at 46% in national polls.

Hillary was consistently over 50% in mid to late October. How did she end up doing?

Posted by Colonel Flagg
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
23467 posts
Posted on 6/15/20 at 4:52 pm to
quote:

There may be some R-leaning voters who are just fed up with things right now but could come back to Trump later.


What could someone be fed up with Trump right now? He hasn’t done anything controversial to be upset with.
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