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Started By
Message
The beginning of the end?
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:16 pm
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:16 pm
PPI down to 9.8%
After 7 months of double-digit PPI, it's now finally dropped back into sub-10%. As the graph above shows, it's now trending downward. Under ideal circumstances, this should signal further drops in CPI coming over the next 30-60 days.
This is good news (and the market seems to agree) but this doesn't mean producer prices are decreasing, they just aren't increasing as fast as they had been. To add to this, we still have rising electricity prices to contend with.
LINK
Along with that, even though Inflation was lower for July, it's still rising and still outpacing wage growth.
Is this a light signaling the end of the tunnel or is that light an oncoming train?
After 7 months of double-digit PPI, it's now finally dropped back into sub-10%. As the graph above shows, it's now trending downward. Under ideal circumstances, this should signal further drops in CPI coming over the next 30-60 days.
This is good news (and the market seems to agree) but this doesn't mean producer prices are decreasing, they just aren't increasing as fast as they had been. To add to this, we still have rising electricity prices to contend with.
quote:
Now soaring natural gas and electricity prices are starting to hit the US industrial complex.
On June 22, 600 workers at the second-largest aluminum mill in America, accounting for 20% of US supply, learned they were losing their jobs because the plant can’t afford an electricity tab that’s tripled in a matter of months. Century Aluminum Co. says it’ll idle the Hawesville, Kentucky, mill for as long as a year, taking out the biggest of its three US sites.
LINK
Along with that, even though Inflation was lower for July, it's still rising and still outpacing wage growth.
Is this a light signaling the end of the tunnel or is that light an oncoming train?
This post was edited on 8/11/22 at 12:19 pm
7
Posted on 8/11/22 at 12:28 pm to Bard
quote:
s this a light signaling the end of the tunnel or is that light an oncoming train?
Well which is it?
Posted on 8/11/22 at 1:27 pm to Bard
quote:
Is this a light signaling the end of the tunnel or is that light an oncoming train?
I think inflation will be here for a while. We are going to start seeing job losses in data over the course of the next few months, which will help slow it (along with the fed). There is no going back on wage growth, though. That cat is out of the bag. In addition to energy, which you referenced, good prices are still rising.
The end of the tunnel for the stock market was when Apple beat. To me that was a risk on indicator.
This post was edited on 8/12/22 at 3:08 pm
Posted on 8/11/22 at 2:14 pm to Bard
It was always going to take some time for the money dump to work it's way through the economy.
Looks like maybe we are starting to turn the corner. But inflation is still stupid high.
But the money dump isn't going to leave the economy... so I think these higher prices are here to stay until we get technological evolution which lowers them.
Looks like maybe we are starting to turn the corner. But inflation is still stupid high.
But the money dump isn't going to leave the economy... so I think these higher prices are here to stay until we get technological evolution which lowers them.
Posted on 8/11/22 at 2:23 pm to Bard
So are we all pulling our Money out of the market again to prepare for the upcoming reset? If you are still sitting on your money you have missed some great opportunities. Hope you at least bought something: puts, Calls, stocks, Gold etc...
Posted on 8/11/22 at 10:08 pm to FLObserver
Don’t worry, you’ll get another chance to buy cheap. Oil is moving up fast, economy picks up, people start using more oil, oil goes back up, inflation rockets again due to high gas prices, economy crashes, stocks crash. It’s coming, and it won’t get better until oil supply is up.
Posted on 8/12/22 at 7:23 am to Bard
It's the dead cat bounce. They had to prove to Sinema and Manchin that inflation is under control now, and they will sign some more trillion dollar bills.
Posted on 8/12/22 at 7:38 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:. And they aren't finish dumping money
take some time for the money dump to work it's way through the economy.
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:05 am to Bard
I’m not too sure what everyone is celebrating over. The average citizen is still hurting and nothing has changed for them.
Revolving credit is exploding. It appears to be increasing at a faster pace than it was before the government imposed Covid crash. Wait for it……
Revolving credit is exploding. It appears to be increasing at a faster pace than it was before the government imposed Covid crash. Wait for it……
This post was edited on 8/12/22 at 8:30 am
Posted on 8/12/22 at 8:41 am to sawtooth
quote:
I’m not too sure what everyone is celebrating over. The average citizen is still hurting and nothing has changed for them.
Agree, 75% of voters in polls say the economy is shite. People are hurting and hurting bad.
Still waiting to see if there is a spike in defaults due to people ramping up their CCs to pay bills and gas.
Posted on 8/12/22 at 10:04 am to Bard
It’s always been the end
The us has been in a Great Depression my entire life but for most of it we were able to conceal it with computers and looking busy
Now that China has all of our technology the only jobs left for millenials is to deliver food
If y’all boomers wouldn’t have voted for nafta and the epa us millenials could have fun, enriching jobs at the factory or the mine but noooo y’all had to have cheap microwaves and less smog
The us has been in a Great Depression my entire life but for most of it we were able to conceal it with computers and looking busy
Now that China has all of our technology the only jobs left for millenials is to deliver food
If y’all boomers wouldn’t have voted for nafta and the epa us millenials could have fun, enriching jobs at the factory or the mine but noooo y’all had to have cheap microwaves and less smog
Posted on 8/12/22 at 2:49 pm to WhiskeyThrottle
quote:
Oil is moving up fast
Not really.
quote:
It's a dead Cat Bounce
Hell of a Bounce
Sitting on your cash while lots of people making cash
Posted on 8/12/22 at 3:05 pm to FLObserver
You got that right! Anybody who put on net bullish trading positions has to be happy. The ones who followed our pal Husss into the fallout bunker, maybe not so much.
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