- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Have we reached the bottom?
Posted on 10/4/22 at 1:19 pm
Posted on 10/4/22 at 1:19 pm
Really nice two days here. Maybe things will start grinding back up or do you guys think there is more pain and this is just a head fake?
15
Posted on 10/4/22 at 1:20 pm to Allthatfades
quote:
there is more pain and this is just a head fake
Posted on 10/4/22 at 1:28 pm to Allthatfades
I'd say just a bear market rally.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 1:32 pm to Allthatfades
Pretty much everything thinks this is just a bear market rally. Think about how costly that would be if it isn't.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 1:42 pm to Allthatfades
What has actually changed to make you think that this is a bottom? Geo political risk is as high as ever and as uncertain as ever this year, FX is worse than we thought when MSFT started warning on that. No sign the broken yoy inflation metrics that the fed watches are changing course. Commodities are on a sharp upswing.
Literally the only thing that happened is sentiment got more universally bad so people are trying to front run that; and Bank of England blinked and sent the scent of QE through the markets which made dollar take a quick breather.
This is all people inferring somehow that prints at the end of the week will improve and FED is closer to pivoting. I'm not feeling it. I know markets can look through things, but I don't see any significant upside to look through to still. Nothing appears to have structurally changed. Proceed with caution.
Even if the FED sees weakness and is planning on pivoting 1q 2023, they will probably still jawbone to the best of their abilities, because really that's all they can do with he amount of debt out there.
If your time horizon is 20 years and you dont care, then sure; you should already be averaging in; vix over 30, push some money in. Theres just too many tail risks for me still; see more possible downside than upside. I'm about 40% cash and 15% bonds at the moment; have enough equity exposure to handle fomo.
The nature of the the inflation prints being yoy and the mom numbers staying pretty stable, I kind of feel like you will have to reinvest before feb of next year regardless of where geopolitical is; but not yet imo.
Literally the only thing that happened is sentiment got more universally bad so people are trying to front run that; and Bank of England blinked and sent the scent of QE through the markets which made dollar take a quick breather.
This is all people inferring somehow that prints at the end of the week will improve and FED is closer to pivoting. I'm not feeling it. I know markets can look through things, but I don't see any significant upside to look through to still. Nothing appears to have structurally changed. Proceed with caution.
Even if the FED sees weakness and is planning on pivoting 1q 2023, they will probably still jawbone to the best of their abilities, because really that's all they can do with he amount of debt out there.
If your time horizon is 20 years and you dont care, then sure; you should already be averaging in; vix over 30, push some money in. Theres just too many tail risks for me still; see more possible downside than upside. I'm about 40% cash and 15% bonds at the moment; have enough equity exposure to handle fomo.
The nature of the the inflation prints being yoy and the mom numbers staying pretty stable, I kind of feel like you will have to reinvest before feb of next year regardless of where geopolitical is; but not yet imo.
This post was edited on 10/4/22 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 10/4/22 at 2:26 pm to Pendulum
Nibbled on some top companies about a week ago at their 52 week lows. The last 2 days have made me pretty happy . I will DCA only when they drop below where i bought them at their 52 week lows.
Trying to get stable dividend companies at or near their 52 week lows. I haven't bought anything since the rally except BA and DUK. BA doesnt pay a DIV now but figure in a few years they will reinstate it hopefully when they are over 200 a share.
Trying to get stable dividend companies at or near their 52 week lows. I haven't bought anything since the rally except BA and DUK. BA doesnt pay a DIV now but figure in a few years they will reinstate it hopefully when they are over 200 a share.
This post was edited on 10/4/22 at 2:29 pm
Posted on 10/4/22 at 2:31 pm to FLObserver
I typically only buy companies that pay a dividend but I made an exception and grabbed a little GOOG at $97. Bought some AAP and BAC too.
I'm long on anything I'm buying right now though. No clue where the market goes in the short term.
I'm long on anything I'm buying right now though. No clue where the market goes in the short term.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 2:42 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
grabbed a little GOOG at $97
i got the fomo on the split Annoucement and bought GOOGLE at 145 after split so i'm sitting with 24 shares . Bought a little more at 120 but dont want to sink anymore money into it. I dumped AAP a little while back. Would like to add in that sector but Oreilly and Autozone to expensive. GPC i believe is a better play then AAP. That 6.00 Div for AAP was the only thing keeping me there
Posted on 10/4/22 at 2:56 pm to FLObserver
I'm bullish on Americans driving more clunkers for some time
Posted on 10/4/22 at 3:09 pm to fallguy_1978
Well i'm guessing it will be a quiet day on the board today with all the doom and gloom folks seeing the last 2 big green days. My Div portfolio is looking pretty good with the last few days . My growth Portfolio still has a mountain to climb
Posted on 10/4/22 at 3:16 pm to FLObserver
Yeah I've still got some heavy bags from this year.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 3:24 pm to Pendulum
$1.73 T of already approved stock buybacks currently in the works. Inflation reduction act goes into place Jan 1, 2023 with a 1% tax on buybacks.
Companies are in blackout period for buybacks during earnings season, so that would be coming to an end pretty soon.
Companies are in blackout period for buybacks during earnings season, so that would be coming to an end pretty soon.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 3:25 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
I'm bullish on Americans driving more clunkers for some time
So Advance auto parts to the moon.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 3:37 pm to Wraytex
O'Reilly is up 3.7% YTD. Given this year, this is not bad at all. Some merit to your thought of automotive repair stocks being good plays.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 3:39 pm to Pendulum
quote:
What has actually changed to make you think that this is a bottom?
This. And oil going back up
Posted on 10/4/22 at 4:03 pm to Allthatfades
A rally spurred on the hope that the fed will slow down on raising interests rates.
There is a reason the fed is raising interest rates. That problem still exists.
I’m waiting for the next shoe to drop.
There is a reason the fed is raising interest rates. That problem still exists.
I’m waiting for the next shoe to drop.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 4:46 pm to Pendulum
All of your wisdom mic drops and the reality is…
When we hit the bottom there will still be a ton of negativity and plenty of headline news reasons why NOT to be a buyer.
When we hit the bottom there will still be a ton of negativity and plenty of headline news reasons why NOT to be a buyer.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 4:48 pm to LSUcam7
i do find it strange bonds and stocks just keep on moving together like different shades of the same tiger
when stocks rally bonds should go down
but nope
which does make one think another leg down will hurt even more considering most people's portfolios are 60/40 = ALL RISK
when stocks rally bonds should go down
but nope
which does make one think another leg down will hurt even more considering most people's portfolios are 60/40 = ALL RISK
Posted on 10/4/22 at 4:54 pm to Pendulum
quote:
What has actually changed to make you think that this is a bottom? Geo political risk is as high as ever and as uncertain as ever this year, FX is worse than we thought when MSFT started warning on that. No sign the broken yoy inflation metrics that the fed watches are changing course. Commodities are on a sharp upswing.
All accurate depictions of the Economy. The Market is not the Economy.
If there's any indication the Fed will halt interest rate raises this year (some are predicting that), or will continue as planned and halt in Q1'23, then you will see a bottom form and likely have stocks trend up.
That is unless another major world event happens, or if Q3 earnings across the board are abysmal. Some sectors will obviously be hurt but we'll see how that compares to guidance.
Posted on 10/4/22 at 5:03 pm to Allthatfades
Some of the best rally’s happen in a bear market
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News