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Mock drafts - do you think they help?
Posted on 8/26/24 at 7:56 am
Posted on 8/26/24 at 7:56 am
I do several mock drafts every year, set up as close as possible to each of my real leagues.
The mocks always go similarly, regardless of site and I start to learn which players I can wait on.
Then comes the real drafts and I seem to get sniped on all of those players I like but thought I could wait on based on adp and mocks.
I think a big part of the issue is that people sign up for mocks then immediately leave forcing too many auto picks which causes all of the mocks to follow the same pattern.
I’m starting to think I’m better off setting my rankings and forgetting mocks and adp.
Do y’all get much value out of mocks?
The mocks always go similarly, regardless of site and I start to learn which players I can wait on.
Then comes the real drafts and I seem to get sniped on all of those players I like but thought I could wait on based on adp and mocks.
I think a big part of the issue is that people sign up for mocks then immediately leave forcing too many auto picks which causes all of the mocks to follow the same pattern.
I’m starting to think I’m better off setting my rankings and forgetting mocks and adp.
Do y’all get much value out of mocks?
13
Posted on 8/26/24 at 8:04 am to BhamTigah
quote:
Do y’all get much value out of mocks?
Not really, it helped me a bit this year because I’ve been out of the loop for fantasy football for a few years, but in general my draft went much different than the mocks that I did.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 9:03 am to BhamTigah
Absolutely if you know which pick you are ahead of time. If you do enough of them you pretty much know exactly who you’re going to have to choose from each round and you won’t be caught off guard
Posted on 8/26/24 at 9:05 am to cfish140
quote:
If you do enough of them you pretty much know exactly who you’re going to have to choose from each round and you won’t be caught off guard
If you read my entire post, you'll see that over my many years of playing, I've often had the opposite experience.
So, most of your actual drafts go similar to the mocks? That's not my experience.
This post was edited on 8/26/24 at 9:06 am
Posted on 8/26/24 at 9:33 am to BhamTigah
quote:
So, most of your actual drafts go similar to the mocks? That's not my experience.
Yep. It narrows it down to about 4-5 players I know I’ll be choosing from especially in the first few rounds. Every now and then a higher ranked player will fall that never fell in the mocks which makes it an easy choice
For example I’m 1st pick in my 14 man. I know I’ll have CMC then when it comes back around to the 2/3 turn I’ll have to choose between Evans, Nico, DK, and London at WR. White, Mixon, or cook for rb. OR I can get kelce or laporta and one of the previous WRs or RBs. Or I can get Josh Allen with 1 of those picks. My team comes out best when I go WR-WR on that turn.
I understand not everybody wants to narrow it down round by round like this but I’m just a nerd and enjoy doing mocks and being prepared. Nothing worse than that clock ticking down and having a last second pick on someone you really didn’t want
Posted on 8/26/24 at 9:55 am to cfish140
Yeah, I get that but don't really need mocks to do what you're saying. There are always plenty of guys I like and I can use ADP to kind of figure that out.
My bigger issue is when there is that middle to late rounder you like and you're trying to decide how long you can wait. I'll get it to where I get him 100% of the time in mocks, then I'll get sniped in the real drafts.
Every year since mock drafts were created, and I still keep doing it.
My bigger issue is when there is that middle to late rounder you like and you're trying to decide how long you can wait. I'll get it to where I get him 100% of the time in mocks, then I'll get sniped in the real drafts.
Every year since mock drafts were created, and I still keep doing it.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 9:59 am to BhamTigah
Mocks are not all that useful for specific player availability but are very valuable for trying out different "strategies" and seeing what you think of your team at the end of it.
The first time you go zero RB or draft a QB in the first 4 rounds should not be in an actual draft with money on the line IMO
The first time you go zero RB or draft a QB in the first 4 rounds should not be in an actual draft with money on the line IMO
Posted on 8/26/24 at 10:31 am to BhamTigah
quote:
So, most of your actual drafts go similar to the mocks? That's not my experience.
The overwhelming majority of the time, yes. But, as we always state, you must be able to pivot. The mock drafts for me help mainly with roster construction because at least I get some idea of what i can expect to be available in the middle rounds.
So, I pretty much am prepared for almost any way that the draft unfolds.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 10:33 am to BhamTigah
They can give you an idea, but they can't replicate what the people in your league think. For example, if you have a league-mate who is a big Texans fan, Nico Collins might go earlier than you're expecting.
They can help with strategy like some other posters have said (i.e. if I go RB at 1.3, who could be around in the second round). The people who enter and then leave causing auto-drafts basically make it a rankings list. You're better off looking at multiple ranking sites and trying to take advantage of people who only use the platform you play on by using composite rankings.
They can help with strategy like some other posters have said (i.e. if I go RB at 1.3, who could be around in the second round). The people who enter and then leave causing auto-drafts basically make it a rankings list. You're better off looking at multiple ranking sites and trying to take advantage of people who only use the platform you play on by using composite rankings.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 11:20 am to BhamTigah
Depends I guess. I've been in a league with mostly the same group of guys for 2 decades. Our drafts normally don't go like most of the mocks that I see go - especially in the later rounds. I still do a few mocks, though - for me it helps to kind of narrow down who might be available in the early couple of rounds. Once we get past round 5 or 6, though, our drafts tend to look nothing like the mocks that I usually do.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 11:52 am to TigerLunatik
It’s definitely going to vary with who you’re drafting with. We do a live draft that is not computer assisted, so people there have their own rankings. I did a ton of mocks leading up to the draft, even in the same position that I was going to draft from and something happened in the first round of my draft that didn’t occur once in the dozens of mocks that I did (CeeDee dropped to me at 12 in my superflex draft). I went into the draft dead set on going QB/QB at the turn from round 1 to 2, but had to reevaluate when CeeDee dropped to me.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 12:02 pm to BhamTigah
Quarterbacks are over drafted in every 1QB mock I’ve ever done. Some schmuck always takes Pat Mahomes way too early.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 12:32 pm to BhamTigah
I think they do. There's usually a handful of players I expect. I love to rapid fire picks. It throws off the other person picking after you if they aren't ready.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 1:41 pm to Epic Cajun
quote:
I did a ton of mocks leading up to the draft, even in the same position that I was going to draft from and something happened in the first round of my draft that didn’t occur once in the dozens of mocks that I did (CeeDee dropped to me at 12 in my superflex draft). I went into the draft dead set on going QB/QB at the turn from round 1 to 2, but had to reevaluate when CeeDee dropped to me.
Did you do any where a WR was there when you did your mocks? It's the same principle pretty much regardless of what WR you take there. You should try multiple different forms of roster construction to see what works best.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 2:38 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
Did you do any where a WR was there when you did your mocks? It's the same principle pretty much regardless of what WR you take there. You should try multiple different forms of roster construction to see what works best.
I didn't, because I would've only considered going WR in the first round if Tyreek or Lamb were there, and I didn't figure that was possible (super flex league so the majority of the first round is QB). I like the way my team turned out, but I would feel differently if I had the same roster construction but not one of the top 3 PPR players fall to me in the first round. IMO, what you're saying is that my "roster construction" had CMC fallen to me is the same as if I drafted Gibbs. I mean sure, but I'd like my team a hell of a lot more if I have CMC rather than Gibbs, even though I went RB first in both scenarios.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 3:00 pm to BhamTigah
Mock against the AI
ESPN has practice draft and Draft Wizard is an app. They go a lot faster and you don't have dipshits picking QBs in the top 5.
If you like a mid round guy though, my only advice is go down and get him. They're just projections. If you like a receiver with an ADP of 55 better than a receiver with an ADP of 44, then draft the guy you like or risk him getting sniped before your next pick. Same thing could be said for round 1. Whether you're picking 2nd or 12th, you are only likely to get one of those guys. If you think Jahmyr Gibbs will outperform Bijan Robinson, pick Gibbs. He's not making it back to you
ESPN has practice draft and Draft Wizard is an app. They go a lot faster and you don't have dipshits picking QBs in the top 5.
If you like a mid round guy though, my only advice is go down and get him. They're just projections. If you like a receiver with an ADP of 55 better than a receiver with an ADP of 44, then draft the guy you like or risk him getting sniped before your next pick. Same thing could be said for round 1. Whether you're picking 2nd or 12th, you are only likely to get one of those guys. If you think Jahmyr Gibbs will outperform Bijan Robinson, pick Gibbs. He's not making it back to you
Posted on 8/26/24 at 4:06 pm to Epic Cajun
quote:
what you're saying is that my "roster construction" had CMC fallen to me is the same as if I drafted Gibbs
I'm saying that if you go into a mock draft and try a bunch of different combinations of outcomes you'll get a good idea of what will be available later in the draft. Obviously CMC and Gibbs are completely different players that would cause different strategies. But, at the end of the first round are players like AJ Brown, Puka, Garrett Wilson and there's even a chance that people will fade Jefferson. IMO I would have been prepared to take a WR there if someone fell to me.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 9:00 pm to BhamTigah
You have to know your league.
My league likes QBs. They’re going to go earlier but I account for that.
I look at ADPs for a baseline of this is where they typically go and when they’ll be on the front page when people are drafting (makes them much more likely to be picked). But I also factor in what I know. Some of it is a guessing game as they obviously don’t tell me who they like/dislike. But I also know the owners who typically go standard strategy and which ones don’t. Why they’ve liked/disliked certain players before and who they’ve been burned by in the past.
It’s no fun if you know exactly where you can get guys though. Sometimes I’ll say to myself I can wait another round before picking him then he goes very next pick.
My league likes QBs. They’re going to go earlier but I account for that.
I look at ADPs for a baseline of this is where they typically go and when they’ll be on the front page when people are drafting (makes them much more likely to be picked). But I also factor in what I know. Some of it is a guessing game as they obviously don’t tell me who they like/dislike. But I also know the owners who typically go standard strategy and which ones don’t. Why they’ve liked/disliked certain players before and who they’ve been burned by in the past.
It’s no fun if you know exactly where you can get guys though. Sometimes I’ll say to myself I can wait another round before picking him then he goes very next pick.
Posted on 8/26/24 at 10:13 pm to Riseupfromtherubble
quote:
They're just projections. If you like a receiver with an ADP of 55 better than a receiver with an ADP of 44, then draft the guy you like or risk him getting sniped before your next pick.
That's exactly my point. My problem is that a guy has ADP of 65 and you do several drafts and notice he goes in the late 5th pretty often. I try a dozen mock drafts taking him at 5.02 and get him every time. Then, in my real draft, he goes at 5.01. Seems to happen every year, after spending a ton of time honing in on where I should be almost guaranteed to get my guy without reaching any farther than I have to.
It's not a huge deal, but it is frustrating.
Posted on 8/27/24 at 5:39 am to BhamTigah
You can also do live public drafts. Those usually go more like a real draft. Only problem with that is you don't get to choose your draft position. You can still keep an eye on who is available at whatever draft picks you have.
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