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Discussion thread - Why Hillary Clinton could win the 2020 Dem nomination
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:35 pm
I kind of want this to be a living thread as her potential candidacy evolves. Feel free to chip in and I'll curate.
Hypothesis: Hillary Clinton has a much better chance of winning the Dem nomination than most people think (should she choose to run).
Reasons for: The sheer number of candidates will dilute the field, she has a rock solid base of middle aged white women who vote, her name recognition is off the charts compared to other candidates, she has access to the top minds and many of the top donors (although likely much less than in 2008 or 2016)
Reasons against: Clinton fatigue, desire for a fresh face, desire for a minority, stench of failure, age, health
Assumed candidates:
Hillary Clinton (for the sake of this thread)
Joe Biden (100%)
Kamala Harris (100%)
Corey Booker (67%)
Elizabeth Warren (67%)
Bernie Sanders(50%)
Mitch Landrieu (50%)
Martin O'Malley (50%)
Michael Bloomberg (50%)
Michael Avenatti (50%)
Hypothesis: Hillary Clinton has a much better chance of winning the Dem nomination than most people think (should she choose to run).
Reasons for: The sheer number of candidates will dilute the field, she has a rock solid base of middle aged white women who vote, her name recognition is off the charts compared to other candidates, she has access to the top minds and many of the top donors (although likely much less than in 2008 or 2016)
Reasons against: Clinton fatigue, desire for a fresh face, desire for a minority, stench of failure, age, health
Assumed candidates:
Hillary Clinton (for the sake of this thread)
Joe Biden (100%)
Kamala Harris (100%)
Corey Booker (67%)
Elizabeth Warren (67%)
Bernie Sanders(50%)
Mitch Landrieu (50%)
Martin O'Malley (50%)
Michael Bloomberg (50%)
Michael Avenatti (50%)
This post was edited on 10/23/18 at 4:50 pm
17
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:36 pm to SirWinston
I hope she does
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:36 pm to SirWinston
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/27/23 at 2:14 am
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:37 pm to SirWinston
Hillary definitely needs to run again. I hope she runs every 4 years until she dies
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:37 pm to SirWinston
I’ll chime in with facts:
When she lost Michigan and your state Wisconsin she did so because a shite ton of voters sat out. The realty is that trump hardly added additional voters from McCain and Romney’s numbers in these 2 states.
She has no chance to win because voters legitimately did not like her and sat home.
2010 Wisconsin
McCain 1,262,000
Obama 1,677,000
2012 Wisconsin
Romney 1,407,000
Obama 1,620,000
2016 Wisconsin
Trump 1,405,000
Hillary 1,382,000
2010 Michigan
McCain 2,044,000
Obama 2,867,000
2012 Michigan
Romney 2,115,000
Obama 2,564,000
2016 Michigan
Trump 2,279,000
Hillary 2,268,000
This is why she won’t ever win.
When she lost Michigan and your state Wisconsin she did so because a shite ton of voters sat out. The realty is that trump hardly added additional voters from McCain and Romney’s numbers in these 2 states.
She has no chance to win because voters legitimately did not like her and sat home.
2010 Wisconsin
McCain 1,262,000
Obama 1,677,000
2012 Wisconsin
Romney 1,407,000
Obama 1,620,000
2016 Wisconsin
Trump 1,405,000
Hillary 1,382,000
2010 Michigan
McCain 2,044,000
Obama 2,867,000
2012 Michigan
Romney 2,115,000
Obama 2,564,000
2016 Michigan
Trump 2,279,000
Hillary 2,268,000
This is why she won’t ever win.
This post was edited on 10/23/18 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:38 pm to SirWinston
She won’t sniff the nomination, unfortunately.
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:38 pm to SirWinston
If HIllary Clinton wins Iowa or New Hampshire, she would be the frontrunner for the Dem nomination regardless of what anybody says.
In a potential field of Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Corey Booker, Hillary Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, Michael Avenatti, and Martin O'Malley, it is Clinton who has by far the largest loyal base of voters.
It could very well play out like the Trump effect in 2016. Sure there are people in that list above capable of beating her, but can they coalesce enough votes and momentum to knock her off in Iowa or New Hampshire and prevent her from becoming the frontrunner before it's too late?
In a potential field of Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Corey Booker, Hillary Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, Michael Avenatti, and Martin O'Malley, it is Clinton who has by far the largest loyal base of voters.
It could very well play out like the Trump effect in 2016. Sure there are people in that list above capable of beating her, but can they coalesce enough votes and momentum to knock her off in Iowa or New Hampshire and prevent her from becoming the frontrunner before it's too late?
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:38 pm to SirWinston
I think even her most loyal operatives would likely work with other campaigns
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:39 pm to lsu480
They are for sure damn short on viable options... I really don't hope she runs. She did get her arse kicked in the electoral colleges but she did win popular vote. She would commit unfathomable horrors to the country... And i want to see Bill go down via Juanita Broderick one day.. she wins, that will never happen.
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:40 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
HHTM, explain to me how anyone from this field beats Hillary Clinton in the Iowa Caucus: Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Corey Booker, Michael Bloomberg, Michael Avenatti, and Martin O'Malley.
Hillary starts with a floor of 25%. It's white Democrats. who tops 25% with that field? Is there enough time for a Harris or a Bloomberg to catch fire and win 26%?
I'd say this is how the field would start in April 2019 leading up to the late 2019 Iowa Caucus:
Clinton 25%
Sanders 20% (he won't run IMO)
Biden 18%
Harris 10%
Warren 13%
Others below 10%
Hillary starts with a floor of 25%. It's white Democrats. who tops 25% with that field? Is there enough time for a Harris or a Bloomberg to catch fire and win 26%?
I'd say this is how the field would start in April 2019 leading up to the late 2019 Iowa Caucus:
Clinton 25%
Sanders 20% (he won't run IMO)
Biden 18%
Harris 10%
Warren 13%
Others below 10%
This post was edited on 10/23/18 at 4:42 pm
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:40 pm to SirWinston
I'd love to agree with you, but I think the DNC is ready to put the Clintons out to pasture.
I wouldn't be shocked if she got the nomination, but I would bet money on it going to a minority such as Booker or Kamala. They're so desperate for the Obama 2.0 turnout and they just aren't going to get it with anyone other than Obama on the ticket (and I think a lot of idiots finally woke up to him, too).
I wouldn't be shocked if she got the nomination, but I would bet money on it going to a minority such as Booker or Kamala. They're so desperate for the Obama 2.0 turnout and they just aren't going to get it with anyone other than Obama on the ticket (and I think a lot of idiots finally woke up to him, too).
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:41 pm to SirWinston
She could easily win. They already alienated Bernie. They don't really have anyone else. Booker? Harris? Chief Warren?
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:41 pm to SirWinston
Didn’t Clinton also beat Obama early on?
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:42 pm to SirWinston
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:42 pm to SirWinston
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Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:43 pm to boosiebadazz
quote:
Didn’t Clinton also beat Obama early on?
Yeah I'm not arguing that her winning Iowa or NH means she wins. She'd probably lose NH TBH. But it would make her a 50 50 shot in my opinion.
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:43 pm to boosiebadazz
quote:
Didn’t Clinton also beat Obama early on?
Yeah but nobody else was in that race b/c it was obvious that Hillary was going to emerge.
John Edwards and Hillary were going to duke it out, and Obama was there for practice for a future run. Until he caught fire and wasn't.
This time there might be 10 candidates (7 of them being "big name") and it will be a very crowded field, which is why Hillary could win.
I'm not arguing she is a good candidate, I'm arguing that her name recognition and her rock solid 50 to 80 year old women voter base gives her a lifeline that many aren't taking into account.
This post was edited on 10/23/18 at 4:45 pm
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:43 pm to SirWinston
Even if Hilldawg was the Devil she ain’t sniffin the White House.
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:47 pm to m2pro
I think there's a good chance Hillary ends up with the Dem nomination if she actually goes after it. I don't think they have anyone else with enough of a following.
The only way Hillary beats Trump 2020 is if the economy somehow crashes hard between now and then.
The only way Hillary beats Trump 2020 is if the economy somehow crashes hard between now and then.
This post was edited on 10/23/18 at 4:49 pm
Posted on 10/23/18 at 4:50 pm to Magician2
I agree with your arguments, but she's stubborn and doesn't care, and this isn't really relevant to her winning the Democrat nomination.
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