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Keeper selection: David Johnson or Pat Mahomes - 14 team PPR
Posted on 8/21/19 at 11:24 am
Posted on 8/21/19 at 11:24 am
I am in a 14-team league with fairly standard PPR scoring. Our lineup is
1 QB
1 RB
2 WR
1 TE
2 Flex
1 D/ST
1 K
As of right now, we can keep a single player for as long as we want but there is a 2-round penalty for each year kept after the first year.
I got DJ in round 13 in 2015 and has been my keeper since, so I would forfeit my 7th rounder this year.
Last year I got Mahomes in round 13, so I would forfeit my 13th rounder this year if I select him.
It seems like Mahomes is the easy answer, but getting a RB1 in round 7 is nice. I'm thinking DJ gets back to his 2015-2017 form with Kyler Murray now at QB. Am I overthinking this?
1 QB
1 RB
2 WR
1 TE
2 Flex
1 D/ST
1 K
As of right now, we can keep a single player for as long as we want but there is a 2-round penalty for each year kept after the first year.
I got DJ in round 13 in 2015 and has been my keeper since, so I would forfeit my 7th rounder this year.
Last year I got Mahomes in round 13, so I would forfeit my 13th rounder this year if I select him.
It seems like Mahomes is the easy answer, but getting a RB1 in round 7 is nice. I'm thinking DJ gets back to his 2015-2017 form with Kyler Murray now at QB. Am I overthinking this?
6
Posted on 8/21/19 at 11:29 am to lsufan_26
Where do you pick in R1? Do you expect some guys (who draft behind you) to keep WRs or possibly Kelce?
This post was edited on 8/21/19 at 11:31 am
Posted on 8/21/19 at 11:29 am to lsufan_26
Ya you gotta go DJ
That’s your DJ
That’s your DJ
Posted on 8/21/19 at 11:30 am to lsufan_26
Damn, that's a tough one. Interesting league/lineups, I like it.
Standard PPR meaning 1 point PPR?
4 point pass tds?
I think i'd go DJ. Lock down another RB1 in the first, get a tight end earlyish then hammer rbs/wrs. With a team of studs around him, Jameis could be a great cheap grab this year.
Standard PPR meaning 1 point PPR?
4 point pass tds?
I think i'd go DJ. Lock down another RB1 in the first, get a tight end earlyish then hammer rbs/wrs. With a team of studs around him, Jameis could be a great cheap grab this year.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 12:02 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Where do you pick in R1? Do you expect some guys (who draft behind you) to keep WRs or possibly Kelce?
I get first selection in draft slot. I'm thinking it is going to be pretty heavy RB keepers (Kamara, Conner, D. Williams, Chubb), but I doubt Kelce will be kept.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 12:08 pm to MickeyLikesDags21
quote:
Damn, that's a tough one. Interesting league/lineups, I like it.
Standard PPR meaning 1 point PPR?
4 point pass tds?
I think i'd go DJ. Lock down another RB1 in the first, get a tight end earlyish then hammer rbs/wrs. With a team of studs around him, Jameis could be a great cheap grab this year.
Thanks, we've been making minor adjustments throughout the years. I liked switching from 2 RB/2 WR/1 Flex to 1 RB/2 WR/2 Flex because it's hard enough with teams switching to RB by committee - having to field 2 RBs each week in a 14 team league was tough.
Yes, full point PPR but 6 points for passing TDs.
I'm also trying to think about future seasons too. Keeping DJ could get me him in round 5 in 2020 and round 3 in 2021.
But keeping Mahomes I could get him in round 11 in 2020, round 9 in 2021, round 7 in 2022, and maybe round 5 in 2023.
This post was edited on 8/21/19 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 8/21/19 at 12:47 pm to lsufan_26
Any idea who will be kept by other owners? This would affect who I keep and also what draft slot I choose.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 1:14 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
Any idea who will be kept by other owners? This would affect who I keep and also what draft slot I choose.
1) D. Adams in R10
2) Possibly CMC in R1 or R. Woods in R4
3) Conner in R14
4) Kamara in R7
5) Probably D. Freeman in R4
6) Probably Mixon in R3
7) Probably Anthony Miller in R14
8) Probably Cohen in R12
9) Probably Ekeler in R14
10) Chubb in R8
11) Probably JuJu in R3
12) D. Williams in R14
13) Watson in R11
Posted on 8/21/19 at 1:25 pm to lsufan_26
DJ. With him you’re spending a 7th for the equivalent of a mid 1st. Incredible value
Posted on 8/21/19 at 2:03 pm to lsufan_26
Mahomes for me.
DJ line still stinks and value will be determined on how hes used in the passing game. He has no business going in the 1st round of drafts.
DJ line still stinks and value will be determined on how hes used in the passing game. He has no business going in the 1st round of drafts.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 2:13 pm to dj30
14 teamer, PPR, 1 RB and 2 FLEX spots to fill. Mahomes aint the answer here D
Posted on 8/21/19 at 2:19 pm to dj30
quote:
6 points for passing TDs
It's Mahomes for me as well.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 3:08 pm to papz
Great value for each, but I think long term you gotta keep Mahomes. 13th, 11th, 9th, 7th, 5th rounds for the next 5 years. That is potentially the #1 QB each year for great value until year 5.
DJ is insane value now, but the decline is much more aggressive. 7th, 5th, 3rd, 1st.
I think Mahomes is a much safer bet long term to get your value, however, if you think that you might hit on someone else that late in the near future, then DJ is probably the answer. QB is so deep right now, so short term, go DJ, that's my DJ.
DJ is insane value now, but the decline is much more aggressive. 7th, 5th, 3rd, 1st.
I think Mahomes is a much safer bet long term to get your value, however, if you think that you might hit on someone else that late in the near future, then DJ is probably the answer. QB is so deep right now, so short term, go DJ, that's my DJ.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 3:08 pm to papz
Mahomes.
You then have the entire draft to just load up including the rounds where the qbs normally go.
You then have the entire draft to just load up including the rounds where the qbs normally go.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 3:33 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
14 teamer, PPR, 1 RB and 2 FLEX spots to fill. Mahomes aint the answer here D
Let’s try to convince them another way
If you take DJ, you give up a 7th rounder. Not a big deal in a 14 teamer, that’s probably a bench player or a TE or QB. But you either have 2 1st round players, a RB/WR or RB/RB combo to solidify your team really hard
If you take Mahomes, you give up a 13th rounder. Obviously doesn’t matter. Now you go through the draft and take RBs and WRs and don’t worry about QB. But you lose the star power of two 1st round players at the cost of a 7th.
In a 14 team league if you get two top 14 players you’re way ahead of the game. Talent is tough to come by and you’re suddenly loaded. With that talent, you still have the option of drafting Mahomes with a 2nd or 3rd, and your 2nd or 3rd player is still better than most of the league. Or you just keep loading up and wait on a QB. If you take Mahomes there’s no option to get two 1st round players for low cost. If you take DJ you can have two 1st round players and Mahomes at low cost
Edit: yes there’s possibly good keeper value in the future for Mahomes. But if he falls off this year, he’ll probably go 5th round or worse next year. Would you want to save a guy going in the 5th? Probably not
This post was edited on 8/21/19 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 8/21/19 at 3:48 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
Upperdecker
Everything he said.
You are crazy not to take that, unless you just absolutely feel DJ will not be anywhere near the RB1 conversation. Even if he falls on the RB2 line, you still win.
Barkley taken first and then DJ, and you are set.
You can easily get you another QB much later (maybe even Mahomes) that can still give you great points from the QB position. You won't have the chance to get two top RBs though.
DJ ALL DAY!!
Posted on 8/21/19 at 3:49 pm to Upperdecker
If you have DJ with a 1st round grade, then yea. I dont. Hes has a 5th round grade in my book, while I have Mahomes as a 3rd.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 3:49 pm to Upperdecker
14 team PPR, you gotta fill 5 skill position players, everyone is keeping a top tier skill guy
QB pool will be strong. I think DJ’s possible struggles are being overstated. He goes off like he could and he’s still a steal of a keeper
That’s the way i see it. Of course it’s a good problem to have
QB pool will be strong. I think DJ’s possible struggles are being overstated. He goes off like he could and he’s still a steal of a keeper
That’s the way i see it. Of course it’s a good problem to have
Posted on 8/21/19 at 4:25 pm to lsufan_26
DJ/Saquon combo if you take the 1st draft slot?
Posted on 8/21/19 at 4:37 pm to Upperdecker
This was my rationale in wanting to keep DJ. Over the past 3 years, getting him late and grabbing an elite WR (2016 Julio, 2017 OBJ, 2018 AB) has helped me finish 3rd, 2nd, and 1st over that stretch. I just need to start taking some flyers in the later rounds the next couple drafts before DJ starts costing me a 3rd or 1st rounder.
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