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re: LSU Baseball 2025 (and beyond) Recruiting Thread
Posted on 8/12/25 at 9:28 pm to WJP23
Posted on 8/12/25 at 9:28 pm to WJP23
Not sure if anyone likes to nerd out on advanced stats in college basball. But if so, robert frey posted sole correlation factors of team stats to runs scored. Most of it is as expected, but i find some parts interesting. Gonna drop a link if anyone wants to see.
LINK
LINK
3
Posted on 8/13/25 at 7:40 am to josh336
For a long time, OPS was the most correlated to scoring runs, at least with the majors. It makes sense that WRC+ has surpassed it though since it was kind of reverse engineered to find what is actually creating runs.
OPS is such a weird stat. It's mathematically bad. You're adding up two percentages with different denominators. The two parts are equally weighted in the formula but in real life one is way more important than the other, like 4x more important.
But it's amazingly good as a shorthand for how productive a player is. It just works.
OPS is such a weird stat. It's mathematically bad. You're adding up two percentages with different denominators. The two parts are equally weighted in the formula but in real life one is way more important than the other, like 4x more important.
But it's amazingly good as a shorthand for how productive a player is. It just works.
Posted on 8/13/25 at 7:56 am to josh336
Pretty interesting more K's and even DPs is a better indicator of runs scored than sac bunts
Putting ball in play or attempting to (and even failing with a K) leads to more runs than sac bunting does, at least by these metrics for college.
But sac bunts still have some situational uses, I think these stats show teams who use it as a main offensive "weapon" though are in the wrong. Like when some west coast teams used to get someone on 1st/2nd with no outs and almost automatically at times try to bunt them over to 2nd (or 3rd) to give up the out to get them in better scoring position.
Putting ball in play or attempting to (and even failing with a K) leads to more runs than sac bunting does, at least by these metrics for college.
But sac bunts still have some situational uses, I think these stats show teams who use it as a main offensive "weapon" though are in the wrong. Like when some west coast teams used to get someone on 1st/2nd with no outs and almost automatically at times try to bunt them over to 2nd (or 3rd) to give up the out to get them in better scoring position.
This post was edited on 8/13/25 at 7:59 am
Posted on 8/13/25 at 8:13 am to josh336
I'd like to see the raw stats separated, but will save this for next season the 1st time LSU bunts. lol
Posted on 8/13/25 at 8:28 am to ProjectP2294
Yeah wRC as the top indicator makes sense to me. OPS obviously too, and it is funny how simplistic that formula is.
My main takeaway is how damaging strikeouts are at the college level compared to the pros. Which just further points out to me how bad college defenses are in comparison to the pros
My main takeaway is how damaging strikeouts are at the college level compared to the pros. Which just further points out to me how bad college defenses are in comparison to the pros
This post was edited on 8/13/25 at 8:31 am
Posted on 8/13/25 at 8:29 am to Lester Earl
I figured you’d like that. Ill also be saving it for next season when lsu does it later in the season when they dont need a single run in the later innings
Posted on 8/13/25 at 4:26 pm to josh336
Posted on 8/13/25 at 4:51 pm to WJP23
Posted on 8/14/25 at 5:48 am to nicholastiger
quote:
Pence should probably just go ahead and reclassify to get to MLB draft sooner
Especially since he was held back. You’re 6’6 and throwing 100. Go back to your correct class, he should be a 2027.
Posted on 8/15/25 at 10:30 am to AtlantaLSUfan
Yeah, he will be nowhere near a college campus
Posted on 8/15/25 at 10:36 am to mikejsjr0912
BA did a write up on East Coast Pro. Here is the commentary on our only Louisiana guy in the upcoming class:
Looks like a guy that will give a different look and be a good bullpen lefty for us.
quote:
Bradyn Cupit, LHP, West Monroe (La.) HS
Commit: LSU
BA Rank: NR
If Phinn Waters showed the best swing-and-miss fastball of the event, Cupit couldn’t have been too far behind. The 5-foot-11, 211-pound lefthander has a physical frame and works from the third base side of the rubber with a quick arm that comes from a lower, three-quarter slot. He struck out five of the nine batters he faced in two innings of work, with solid control in his first inning before his touch and feel backed up a bit in the second.
Cupit threw his fastball in the 91-94 mph range, and it featured a bit of armside run and played nicely at the top of the zone, where Cupit did a nice job keeping the ball throughout. He racked up 11 whiffs on 16 swings against the fastball and used the heater to finish four of his five strikeouts. While he used the fastball nearly 75% of the time, Cupit did flash a 79-83 mph slider with impressive spin in the 2,600-2,800 rpm and great sweeping life that could give it above-average potential. He didn’t show a third pitch in this look, but does have a mid-80s changeup, as well.
Looks like a guy that will give a different look and be a good bullpen lefty for us.
Posted on 8/15/25 at 11:10 am to ProjectP2294
A couple notes I saw on the MILB transactions this morning:
Austin Nola has elected free agency. He was recently sent to Triple A by the Rockies, but is out of options. That gives him the choice of accepting the assignment or electing free agency and signing with a different org.
River Hamilton was just put on the full season injured list by the Tigers. With so little time left in the minor league season, it's likely they didn't have a plan for him to pitch anyway. This takes him off the active minor league roster which is capped at like 165 players for each org.
Austin Nola has elected free agency. He was recently sent to Triple A by the Rockies, but is out of options. That gives him the choice of accepting the assignment or electing free agency and signing with a different org.
River Hamilton was just put on the full season injured list by the Tigers. With so little time left in the minor league season, it's likely they didn't have a plan for him to pitch anyway. This takes him off the active minor league roster which is capped at like 165 players for each org.
Posted on 8/15/25 at 11:51 am to ProjectP2294
quote:
But it's amazingly good as a shorthand for how productive a player is. It just works.
I think it makes good sense
How often are you on base + what base are you usually on basically.
The bigger that number the better.
it exists in its own frame of reference
Posted on 8/15/25 at 2:35 pm to SammyTiger
the rumor was that Hamilton was having injury concerns - I doubt he would have been healthy enough to contribute in 2026 for LSU, maybe that played into his draft decision if the MLB club would handle his injury or not
Posted on 8/17/25 at 1:14 pm to SammyTiger
Brayden Jobert got released by the Cardinals today.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 9:38 am to ProjectP2294
That was quick
Minors don't play around anymore
Minors don't play around anymore
Posted on 8/19/25 at 5:09 pm to ProjectP2294
LSUE has updated their roster for the fall and it includes Marshall Louque, which we knew but was never officially announced anywhere.
They also have like 5 other freshmen that were committed to D1s at some point, like Marcus Gradney, Jacob Froelich, and Gavin Nix.
They should be strong again this year, but with what seems like a little more recruitable talent than normal. A lot of years they have guys that are good for that level but not always projectable beyond that.
They also have like 5 other freshmen that were committed to D1s at some point, like Marcus Gradney, Jacob Froelich, and Gavin Nix.
They should be strong again this year, but with what seems like a little more recruitable talent than normal. A lot of years they have guys that are good for that level but not always projectable beyond that.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 8:29 am to ProjectP2294
Figured people in this thread would be more interested in this.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 8/20/25 at 8:56 am to TigerCub
I read that yesterday and enjoyed it.
There are generally two tracks for development, at the individual, team, and org level in the pros.
Depending on how much time you have with the player you might be able to do both, improve the weaknesses and strengthen the strengths. With less than one year with Eyanson, they chose to strengthen his strengths.
And I still think (and they probably do too), that even with that there is still a lot of developmental meat on the bone. Because of his athleticism, his ceiling is pretty high. His floor is also pretty high. I was wishing the Cardinals would have gotten him, he was a couple picks away from them when the Red Sox drafted him. Because I think he's a mid rotation starter.
There are generally two tracks for development, at the individual, team, and org level in the pros.
Depending on how much time you have with the player you might be able to do both, improve the weaknesses and strengthen the strengths. With less than one year with Eyanson, they chose to strengthen his strengths.
And I still think (and they probably do too), that even with that there is still a lot of developmental meat on the bone. Because of his athleticism, his ceiling is pretty high. His floor is also pretty high. I was wishing the Cardinals would have gotten him, he was a couple picks away from them when the Red Sox drafted him. Because I think he's a mid rotation starter.
Posted on 8/20/25 at 9:39 am to nicholastiger
speaking of Area Code Games, Both of the top 2 2027 guys from Barbe where there and had really good showings
Jordin Griffin- top ranked outfield in the class, #2 in the state for pbr, #5 overall in class by PG
Twitter Link
Twitter Link
Twitter Link
Twitter Link
hit 93 from the OF, 91 from the IF. recently ran a laser timed 6.4 60y dash which puts him as one of the fastest in the nation
LINK
also just did an episode of no days off
Twitter Link
still same sweet swing he had at 12
Twitter Link
Twitter Link
not sure he makes it to campus or not being ranked #5 in the class now. Explosive athlete biggest thing for him is going to be height and handling elite pitching. Struggled in HS ball with that but has excelled against the best in the country on the travel circuit.
Jordin Griffin- top ranked outfield in the class, #2 in the state for pbr, #5 overall in class by PG
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Twitter Link
Twitter Link
Twitter Link
Twitter Link
hit 93 from the OF, 91 from the IF. recently ran a laser timed 6.4 60y dash which puts him as one of the fastest in the nation
LINK
also just did an episode of no days off
Twitter Link
still same sweet swing he had at 12
Twitter Link
Twitter Link
not sure he makes it to campus or not being ranked #5 in the class now. Explosive athlete biggest thing for him is going to be height and handling elite pitching. Struggled in HS ball with that but has excelled against the best in the country on the travel circuit.
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