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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 7/13/22 at 10:03 am to Hussss
There's always hope.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 10:09 am to Lsut81
It's more a vagary of the calculation - the 12th month that was dropped from last year was replaced by a higher one. This will keep going for another few months. But inflation is clearly going the opposite direction in a lot of markets - oil is way down from the highs. Wheat is down more than 30%. Car prices have finally started coming down - and used cars will crash when the chip shortage ends eventually.
My real fear is deflation within the next year - and of course the Fed will be fighting yesterday's war. Could get ugly.
My real fear is deflation within the next year - and of course the Fed will be fighting yesterday's war. Could get ugly.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 10:19 am to Hussss
quote:
The market is still pricing in Fed hikes, hence the deflation in commodities and risk assets. Once the market has its WTF moment when theFed can no longer hike and inflation is out of control, look out!
We get it Guy you a big bear but if the bottom falls out then no one benefits. Do we really want another great depression Scenario? I'm all for the Market to get cheaper but watching people lose Jobs, houses, retirement etc... is not worth it. I'm hoping something can change for the positive by end of year.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 10:25 am to FLObserver
quote:
We get it Guy you a big bear but if the bottom falls out then no one benefits. Do we really want another great depression Scenario? I'm all for the Market to get cheaper but watching people lose Jobs, houses, retirement etc... is not worth it. I'm hoping something can change for the positive by end of year.
HELLLLLL NO. I want NOBODY to lose their job(s).
All I WANT is for the criminals that have put us in this mess to be prosecuted to the fullest extent, law and order to be enforced for the TOP, and THEN and only then can confidence be restored in our system.
ETA: Dr. Robert Malone NAILS it!
LINK
This post was edited on 7/13/22 at 10:48 am
Posted on 7/13/22 at 11:20 am to Lsut81
Rate hikes aren’t going to fix the supply side issues so at this point the Fed just has to nuke demand
Posted on 7/13/22 at 11:25 am to TigerTatorTots
I just bought a BBQ sandwich, fries, slaw, and coke for $17. Jesus.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 11:34 am to slackster
quote:
Y’all act like the US is in a vacuum with its problems.
As bad as things are here we are still in one of the best positions in the world.
That doesn’t change that the Federal Reserve has royally fricked this up.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 11:35 am to Lsut81
I remember when all the PT guys came over here looking for stock/mutual fund/ETF recommendations for their Trump AND Biden handout checks. And now they’re wondering why the the economy has gone south…
Posted on 7/13/22 at 11:35 am to Shepherd88
quote:
You ever been duck hunting and your hands get frozen? Do you then say frick it and stick them in boiling water?
Good one! Mind if I borrow that from you for future use?
Posted on 7/13/22 at 11:49 am to Hussss
Yeah, except the dollar is King.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 12:02 pm to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
Yeah, except the dollar is King.
(For now)
Posted on 7/13/22 at 12:26 pm to Lsut81
quote:
So what happens now? Fed hikes rates .75 the same week Q2 GDP comes in that we’re in a recession?
I don't think they have the balls to go a full point but another .75 is probably on deck.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 12:43 pm to Lsut81
quote:
Guess those looking to buy homes are F’d
Yeah, we're about to turn that search off. It's literally knocking us down almost a couple $100,000 in our pricing limit search.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 12:54 pm to TheWiz
We're looking right now, were just quoted 6% 30-year fixed and we both have excellent credit scores. We need to buy a house but I don't know if I can stomach it. We would've ended up paying over 900,000 dollars in interest if we paid the full duration of the loan. Not sure what we're going to do...
Posted on 7/13/22 at 1:19 pm to vuvuzela
quote:
We need to buy a house but I don't know if I can stomach it. We would've ended up paying over 900,000 dollars in interest if we paid the full duration of the loan. Not sure what we're going to do...
If you can afford to wait it out, do so. Rates first have to go up, then prices have to fall as sellers get more competitive to sell and then rates have to come back down again (although I doubt we'll see 2%-3% again unless there's some other massive calamity).
Posted on 7/13/22 at 1:41 pm to Bard
quote:
prices have to fall as sellers get more competitive to sell
Seeing some significant price drops already.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 1:46 pm to TheWiz
These “drops” aren’t fast enough. They either make a major monetary policy mistake or lock down again to fight this.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:36 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
Good one! Mind if I borrow that from you for future use?
Not at all, it’s yours to use my friend
Posted on 7/13/22 at 2:40 pm to thegreatboudini
quote:
I would love to see them absolutely crash everything.
When you are 60-65 or even 70 and some 35 year old says this I suspect you will feel differently. There will not be a quick 6 month recovery from this like the last time the market tanked. They have 1/2 a generation of retirees and future retirees, including themselves, that they have to consider, too, not just those of us with 20-40 more years in the market.
This post was edited on 7/13/22 at 7:14 pm
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