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re: Inherited Money. Worried about crash.
Posted on 10/6/25 at 8:09 am to Lsu05
Posted on 10/6/25 at 8:09 am to Lsu05
The market has always been on a long term upward trajectory. By avoiding ATH you're more likely to wait and buy at a higher point than today. Historically for S&P 500 you are better off investing at an ATH than a random day.
The key is sticking to your strategy and not panicking (a FA may help stay course though I hate paying fees so I DYI.) The 2022 peak S%P500 was 4,796.56 it is now 6,715.79. Thats up 40% in less than 4 yrs (plus 1.16% yield) if you bought at worst moment before it declined. You only lost $ by panic selling.
The key is sticking to your strategy and not panicking (a FA may help stay course though I hate paying fees so I DYI.) The 2022 peak S%P500 was 4,796.56 it is now 6,715.79. Thats up 40% in less than 4 yrs (plus 1.16% yield) if you bought at worst moment before it declined. You only lost $ by panic selling.
This post was edited on 10/6/25 at 8:11 am
0
Posted on 10/6/25 at 8:49 am to Lsu05
quote:
You can’t time the market, but I think you can be diligent about when cash is deployed and buying when the market is at all time highs isn’t being diligent IMO.
“You can’t time the market”
Very next sentence
“Time the market”
Posted on 10/6/25 at 1:07 pm to tgerb8
You run the show. You tell him what you want. It's YOUR risk tolerance, not his. If he doesn't like it, he can fire you.
While you're right in saying if you were going to take less risk, you want to take it at all time highs, where your wrong is if this is the fourth turning, the market will be the place to hide in the event of a dollar crash. Not the bond market. And certainly not the same cash you think is crashing shortly.
All that said, I wouldn't take it all out, but if you're feeling worried, go ahead and back down a level of risk (ie. if you're 80% stock, go down to 60%, etc). Ask your advisor what he thinks would do well if you were right and say you want to do 20% that way.
While you're right in saying if you were going to take less risk, you want to take it at all time highs, where your wrong is if this is the fourth turning, the market will be the place to hide in the event of a dollar crash. Not the bond market. And certainly not the same cash you think is crashing shortly.
All that said, I wouldn't take it all out, but if you're feeling worried, go ahead and back down a level of risk (ie. if you're 80% stock, go down to 60%, etc). Ask your advisor what he thinks would do well if you were right and say you want to do 20% that way.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 10/6/25 at 3:52 pm to TheOcean
I apologize.
Age 43
Net Worth: close to 3 mil
We spend about 120 a year.
I inherited about 2 mil.
We're trying to get it out from under the tax burden and 1.5 remains (and grows) that we need to move out if the inherited IRA.
We're close to 45/55 in terms of bonds/CDs and stocks (mainly just S&P 500 and some real estate and gold ETFs).
We're taking out 8k a month.
My parents hired and worked with this FA for decades. I do trust him and it would take a LOT to make me move away from him..
What does the phrase "deploy cash" mean? Is this in reference to buying more into the market?
I certainly agree with the "time in the market" vs "timing the market" and of course my FA stresses this. I just can't get over the feeling that our entire financial system is a house of cards and cracks are forming.
Age 43
Net Worth: close to 3 mil
We spend about 120 a year.
I inherited about 2 mil.
We're trying to get it out from under the tax burden and 1.5 remains (and grows) that we need to move out if the inherited IRA.
We're close to 45/55 in terms of bonds/CDs and stocks (mainly just S&P 500 and some real estate and gold ETFs).
We're taking out 8k a month.
My parents hired and worked with this FA for decades. I do trust him and it would take a LOT to make me move away from him..
What does the phrase "deploy cash" mean? Is this in reference to buying more into the market?
I certainly agree with the "time in the market" vs "timing the market" and of course my FA stresses this. I just can't get over the feeling that our entire financial system is a house of cards and cracks are forming.
Posted on 10/6/25 at 4:25 pm to tgerb8
quote:
I just can't get over the feeling that our entire financial system is a house of cards and cracks are forming.
“There is nothing new under the sun.”
Ecclesiastes
Read some history about financial markets. Then study what has happened over time in US stock market.
If you are not comfortable being invested in stocks, then I guess you should not invest more than you are willing to lose.
Always remember, taxes and inflation are twin thieves of wealth. Taxes they take every time you win. Inflation just makes all of your money worth less year after year.
Long term investing in equities can help mitigate the theft by the taxman and inflation.
You have a trusted CFP so make sure he understands your personal risk tolerance.
Posted on 10/6/25 at 4:31 pm to tgerb8
10% Bonds
40% GameStop
50% Fartcoin
Diversification reduces risk
40% GameStop
50% Fartcoin
Diversification reduces risk
This post was edited on 10/6/25 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 10/6/25 at 4:38 pm to tgerb8
If $3m is actually your net worth (not just investment portfolio) $120k is a pretty aggressive withdrawal rate. Is much of that your home equity or other non liquid assets you dont intend to spend? Does the $120k include taxes?
4% rule of thumb for SWR was based on 50/50 US large cap stocks/bond portfolio and only a 30 yr retirement. You are projecting a longer retirement and proposing a more conservative allocation both reduce likelihood of longterm.success. Recently Bengen increased SWR to 4.7%. To achieve this, he added five asset classes to his original model of U.S. large-cap stocks and U.S. bonds: international, small-cap, mid-cap and micro-cap stocks, and Treasury bills.
4% rule of thumb for SWR was based on 50/50 US large cap stocks/bond portfolio and only a 30 yr retirement. You are projecting a longer retirement and proposing a more conservative allocation both reduce likelihood of longterm.success. Recently Bengen increased SWR to 4.7%. To achieve this, he added five asset classes to his original model of U.S. large-cap stocks and U.S. bonds: international, small-cap, mid-cap and micro-cap stocks, and Treasury bills.
Posted on 10/6/25 at 5:02 pm to tgerb8
Peter Lynch on Risk....join in at 18:30 mark.
The whole interview is good. I watched last night. He handled my money during his tenure at Fidelity Magellan.
The whole interview is good. I watched last night. He handled my money during his tenure at Fidelity Magellan.
Posted on 10/6/25 at 6:04 pm to tgerb8
Uh... it's free money, not next year's mortgage payments.
And the market goes up in the long run.
And the market goes up in the long run.
Posted on 10/6/25 at 6:32 pm to tgerb8
Don’t know your whole situation, but… Assuming the $2MM in inherited assets are part of your $3MM net worth, I would not feel comfortable retiring at age 43.
Posted on 10/6/25 at 7:09 pm to tgerb8
quote:
I retired because of a type of adult onset muscular dystrophy that I also inherited. The job I left is still asking me to come back but I honestly don't know how effective I am any longer.
Is part time an option?
Posted on 10/7/25 at 7:15 am to tgerb8
Right before the GFC in 08-09 we invested $50K in a 529. The market crashed and it went down to a low of about $21K. Now it’s worth about $160K. The only time you lose money in the market is when you take it out.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 10:44 am to Lsu05
quote:What? Have you seen what the market has done since that time frame
personally wouldn’t invest in equities right now. My FA bought at all time highs back in 22 right before the post covid bubble popped and interest rates shot up. I got absolutely crushed by bonds and equities almost immediately after most of my money was invested. For me personally, it was a very unpleasant experience and in some ways my portfolio still hasn’t fully recovere
Posted on 10/7/25 at 12:32 pm to tgerb8
quote:what does he know? Pfffftttt
My financial advisor continues to tell me he would not suggest going more conservative.
quote:you’ll regret it if you don’t trust your gut
i feel like we're at a precipice. and things are going to go bad soon. for whatever reason.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 12:56 pm to tgerb8
You are talking like a scared 70 year old man who is fearful of losing everything he owns. Be smart. Diversify. FA's are tuned into the market more than we are. Watch out for one that only wants to put you in investments because he gets a high commission. Feel free to shop around and interview multiple FA's. Don't be a tool.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 1:00 pm to tgerb8
quote:
45/55 in terms of bonds/CD and stocks
If your FA recommended that at your age, you need a new FA.
Posted on 10/7/25 at 2:15 pm to Lsu05
quote:
Will it recover over time, yes.
Will recover? The S&P is up like 30% from the peak in 2022
Posted on 10/7/25 at 2:39 pm to tgerb8
quote:
I'm 43. I retired when my parents passed and weve been able to sustain with interest and not eat into principal.
And yes. I think the FA is suggesting that based on my age. but I retired because of a type of adult onset muscular dystrophy that I also inherited.
You need a better financial advisor. You need someone to manage your money and ensure you have enough to stay retired and keep your health as good as possible. Kick this guy to the curb and go to Morgan Stanley or another reputable firm and tell them your situation. It will cost something, but it will nearly ensure you are successful. You don’t have a chance to play around and learn the market here
Posted on 10/7/25 at 2:50 pm to tgerb8
quote:
Age 43
Net Worth: close to 3 mil
We spend about 120 a year.
I inherited about 2 mil.
We're trying to get it out from under the tax burden and 1.5 remains (and grows) that we need to move out if the inherited IRA.
We're close to 45/55 in terms of bonds/CDs and stocks (mainly just S&P 500 and some real estate and gold ETFs).
If you've had millions for some period of time that have been largely hanging out in bonds/CDs at your age, you need to buy a time machine and go whip your FA's arse years ago.
Can your wife still work? If your job wants you back, I'd go back in some capacity, even if not full time. I would be very worried to retire at 43, especially if it sounds like you will have some significant healthcare costs in years to come. Those prices aren't coming down. Not to be morbid, but does your medical condition give you a much shorter life expectancy?
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