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re: Investing In Tesla
Posted on 10/2/18 at 10:22 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 10/2/18 at 10:22 pm to LSURussian
Quite an interesting thread. I especially liked his idea that the price of oil, has little to no bearing on the demand for vehicles that don’t use oil, based solely on a few hundred thousand Tesla preorders.
Anyways, putting aside the benefit of hindsight, it seemed that one of his few posts to get some support was when he bragged about selling 100% of his shares that he bought at $244.00 for $326.50, the same shares that he argued would be worth upwards of $700 by now and worth almost 9 times THAT in the long term.
How does selling EVERY share for a before tax profit of $82.50, and paying short-term capital gains (probably between 30 and 40 percent), make any sense when he thinks those same shares will net a before tax profit of $456 at a much lower long-term capital gains tax rate (at most 20%) in just a year and a half, especially since his price projections would diminish the likelihood of a lower price point to get back in?
I get selling some to take a little profit here and there, and one can harvest losses to offset gains and maybe even buy back in at a discount, but I don’t get how selling 100% of his shares given his super optimistic outlook didn’t garner much criticism—especially given the tax implications.
Am I missing something here?
Anyways, putting aside the benefit of hindsight, it seemed that one of his few posts to get some support was when he bragged about selling 100% of his shares that he bought at $244.00 for $326.50, the same shares that he argued would be worth upwards of $700 by now and worth almost 9 times THAT in the long term.
How does selling EVERY share for a before tax profit of $82.50, and paying short-term capital gains (probably between 30 and 40 percent), make any sense when he thinks those same shares will net a before tax profit of $456 at a much lower long-term capital gains tax rate (at most 20%) in just a year and a half, especially since his price projections would diminish the likelihood of a lower price point to get back in?
I get selling some to take a little profit here and there, and one can harvest losses to offset gains and maybe even buy back in at a discount, but I don’t get how selling 100% of his shares given his super optimistic outlook didn’t garner much criticism—especially given the tax implications.
Am I missing something here?
This post was edited on 10/2/18 at 10:25 pm
1
Posted on 10/2/18 at 11:06 pm to buckeye_vol
Drove my dad’s Tesla P100D this morning in Ludicrous mode. A 6 passenger suv that goes 0-60 in 2.1 seconds. I think I still have a headache from the G-Forces. 
I’m no Tesla fanboy but that car is a work of art. Sound, driving, controls, interior and exterior.
No idea on long term value but that car is pretty damn awesome.
I’m no Tesla fanboy but that car is a work of art. Sound, driving, controls, interior and exterior.
No idea on long term value but that car is pretty damn awesome.
Posted on 10/3/18 at 12:14 am to Bullfrog
quote:My friend has a Tesla, and it's awesome. Although the huge screen would probably be a dangerous distactor for me if I had one.
I’m no Tesla fanboy but that car is a work of art. Sound, driving, controls, interior and exterior.
No idea on long term value but that car is pretty damn awesome.
Despite its detractors, and they aren't baseless in their stances, I think (or at least hope) it will ultimately succeed long-term. I just don't think the OP, really knows how and/or why it will (neither do I though
), despite knowing a lot about the company. In fact, it may be just that the OP is good at gathering useful information, but terrible at using it, given some of his outrageous projections, asinine interpretations (oil prices), emotional reasoning, and ridiculous arrogance.
Posted on 10/3/18 at 10:50 am to Bullfrog
Mo one has rally argues they were shite vehicles ( other than a few M3 issues), just that a company can not exist long term selling products at a loss.
At this point Tesla is bleeding cash on every single product it sells including solar and space.
The Musk fanboys may make this bounce around a while but Telsla is dead unless they find a partner to build their cars for them, pull the plug on solar city, and squeeze a bit of revenue out of SpaceX.
At this point Tesla is bleeding cash on every single product it sells including solar and space.
The Musk fanboys may make this bounce around a while but Telsla is dead unless they find a partner to build their cars for them, pull the plug on solar city, and squeeze a bit of revenue out of SpaceX.
Posted on 10/3/18 at 11:35 am to cave canem
quote:
No one has really argued they were shite vehicles (
FIFY. I'd take this much further. They are not bad vehicles, they aren't good vehicles, almost everyone I know that has one or has driven one says they are badarse vehicles.
I haven't looked into it, why are they not making money on Tesla yet? Too much money spent on growth still?
At some point they should be able to stop the crazy growth and simply get to just producing vehicles for an income right? Why is that not happening?
Posted on 10/3/18 at 1:53 pm to baldona
quote:
At some point they should be able to stop the crazy growth and simply get to just producing vehicles for an income right? Why is that not happening?
Same reason Solar City will never make money, they can not produce a cost competitive product compared to what exist.
Had FedGov not thrown bucketloads of cash at them as well as provided massive tax credits for their customers under the last administration this saga would have been over long ago.
Posted on 10/3/18 at 2:06 pm to cave canem
quote:
Same reason Solar City will never make money, they can not produce a cost competitive product compared to what exist.
I have no idea on the costs of Solar Panels. I disagree on Tesla though. They are selling $50k plus vehicles. Companies can make money on vehicles for under half of that.
So why can't Tesla? The batteries aren't $40k. The rest of the vehicle is not that much different than your average $50-75k vehicle as far as pricing goes.
So it is their manufacturing is too high? Their payroll, their subcontracting, what?
Posted on 10/3/18 at 2:45 pm to baldona
quote:
Companies can make money on vehicles for under half of that.
So why can't Tesla? The batteries aren't $40k. The rest of the vehicle is not that much different than your average $50-75k vehicle as far as pricing goes.
The former GM CEO says this:
quote:
“They will never make money on the Model 3 because the cost is way too high. He’s got 9,000 people in that assembly plant producing less than 150,000 cars a year. The whole thing just doesn’t compute. It’s an automobile company that is headed for the graveyard,” Lutz said during an interview.
Posted on 10/4/18 at 9:51 am to baldona
Because it cost them 70 grand to build a car that they sell for 58 grand, and no one is happy with Model 3 build quality.
Those numbers are an approximation because I am not looking it up on my phone but they will be damn close
Those numbers are an approximation because I am not looking it up on my phone but they will be damn close
Posted on 10/4/18 at 11:17 am to LSURussian
I'll admit, I sold my TSLA because I didn't like watching it froller coaster like a cryptocurrency.
Would it compute if the capacity increased? Because recent reports have production higher than 150,000 a year.
quote:
He’s got 9,000 people in that assembly plant producing less than 150,000 cars a year. The whole thing just doesn’t compute.
Would it compute if the capacity increased? Because recent reports have production higher than 150,000 a year.
Posted on 10/4/18 at 4:42 pm to Cdawg
I heard on the radio that the idiot put out a text taunting the SEC. Such a clown.
quote:
The tweet, which is missing a word and appears to take a sarcastic tone, says "the Shortseller Enrichment Commission is doing incredible work" and commends the agency on a name change that did not occur.
This post was edited on 10/4/18 at 4:45 pm
Posted on 10/4/18 at 5:44 pm to Janky
the board has to step in now, right? Right?
Posted on 10/4/18 at 8:44 pm to Janky
He also tweeted out some cryptic rap song on Monday morning.
Posted on 10/4/18 at 9:26 pm to Janky
Musk may be having a mental breakdown.
Posted on 10/4/18 at 9:27 pm to southernelite
It's amazing it has carried on this long. He is not fit to be the face of a massive company.
Posted on 10/4/18 at 9:49 pm to LSURussian
this thread delivered. “the electric car is better in every way”
lulz
lulz
Posted on 10/4/18 at 10:37 pm to texag7
I just went back and reread the 1st page this thread. Entertaining for sure.
Posted on 10/4/18 at 10:49 pm to southernelite
What happened to rocket btw?
Posted on 10/5/18 at 8:14 am to LSURussian
quote:
The former GM CEO says this: quote: “They will never make money on the Model 3 because the cost is way too high. He’s got 9,000 people in that assembly plant producing less than 150,000 cars a year. The whole thing just doesn’t compute. It’s an automobile company that is headed for the graveyard,” Lutz said during an interview.
I’m sorry but I’m not going to take the government motors ceo’s Advice here.
That’s 16.67 Cars per person. At $4,000 profit each that’s $64,000 per person. Let’s say they can bump that to 200k cars a year and now we are looking at $89kper person.
At what point do they become profitable is what I’m saying? Tesla’s avg price has to be the highest or near the top in the industry though right?
Is it harder or easier to make their cars? I have no idea.
But again I haven’t seen any specific reasons why they aren’t making money.
Posted on 10/5/18 at 9:33 am to baldona
quote:
That’s 16.67 Cars per person. At $4,000 profit each that’s $64,000 per person. Let’s say they can bump that to 200k cars a year and now we are looking at $89kper person.
Thats strictly labor cost, doesn't include any capital cost which have to been insane with all the automation.
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