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Started By
Message
re: Mortgage Rates Continue To Slide
Posted on 12/29/23 at 10:00 am to Tiger Prawn
Posted on 12/29/23 at 10:00 am to Tiger Prawn
I’m not saying it’s a buyers market, but if I was a buyer I’d be patiently throwing out lowball offers with the plan to refinance if rates drop and I get a good deal
2
Posted on 12/29/23 at 10:34 am to baldona
Plenty of reasonable commentary in this thread. But it's pretty simple: there is a shortage of ~4 Million dwelling units in this country. As long as that is the overhanging macro condition, you can expect a fairly strong housing market.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 10:36 am to PhiTiger1764
quote:
But it's still too early to claim "the real estate agents were right" until.. you know.. they actually become right.
There’s very little supply and prices aren’t budging in major metro areas even when rates hit 7%. The housing market hasn’t crashed despite years of predictions on here and my favorite comment “who would buy a home at these prices?” that has been posted on here since before I joined and was lurking in 2018. Well, anyone who bought in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 is sitting on a ton of equity and a very low rate if they refinanced. The idiots that have been renting waiting for housing market to ‘crash’ have lost buying power and equity and chance at historical low rates.
I don’t care what any real estate agent says or thinks. People who have been sitting the last several years out have screwed themselves. Will the market eventually correct or even ‘crash’? Absolutely but there isn’t a soul on here who knows when that will be and they can post all the graphs, charts, etc until they are blue in the face they have been dead wrong going on damn near 6 years now
Posted on 12/29/23 at 10:54 am to XenScott
quote:
If somehow magically interest rates immediately dropped to 5%, my lumber costs would double at least.
Can you explain this? Are you talking about mortgage rates or the all encompassing rates where they are all dropping? Wouldn't that bring down the cost of capital for lumber producers?
Posted on 12/29/23 at 11:29 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
As long as that is the overhanging macro condition, you can expect a fairly strong housing market.
Shortage of units is only half of the equation.
Employment is basically the dagger that hangs over the housing market.
If/when unemployment rises, people won't be confident to make such large purchases.
If/when unemployment rises, people who are overleveraged will foreclose or be forced to sell in any market (combining both additional supply with a decrease in demand).
I am making zero predictions on the employment market.
The point is that I do not forsee any real correction or reverse in housing prices until unemployment creeps.
Until then, we are debating fractions of a percent or numbers within the normal scale of inflation. Minimal change.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 11:39 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Plenty of reasonable commentary in this thread. But it's pretty simple: there is a shortage of ~4 Million dwelling units in this country. As long as that is the overhanging macro condition, you can expect a fairly strong housing market.
I'm not convinced of this at all. There will always be a "shortage" imagined by someone.
There's not 4 million people living on the streets with no where to live. They all live somewhere, just because they say they can't "buy" due to prices its almost always BS.
What's happened since Covid is that the 2nd home market has exploded. When people had no where to go and the stock market was questionable, it woke tons of upper middle class into looking into a 2nd home with some fresh air.
They market is what it is. I just don't see anything magically changing it anytime soon. As said, rates go down then prices go up and "people can't afford it". Rates go up, prices go down and "no one can afford it".
All that means to me is the market is probably pretty damn leveled out.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 12:42 pm to baldona
There is a shortage.
Us commonfolk have a difficult time with this one as we are used to commodities.
Throw all of the following together in the "non-commodity" category.
1) CEO
2) Athlete
3) Healthcare
4) location, location, location.
There is limited supply of numbers 1-4 for "greatness".
I'm sure there are 2B people in the world who could assume the duties of CEO (after all, what do we call self employed people). But how many are qualified for the Russell 2000? Fortune 500? Dow Jones firms?
There are probably 10,000,000 in the US today who have played QB at some level of football. How many can win a superbowl? How many have won a superbowl?
How many left handed pitchers can strike out Freddie Freeman?
Your mom is going in for routine surgery. Are you not looking for the best surgeon and best facility available? What about for your wife? Your child?
There are millions of homes for sale. But homebuyers take a microscope and search specific neighborhoods and communities. Developers ignore plenty of raw land outside of cities. Why? It isn't a commodity. There is limited supply in the property's uniqueness.
Us commonfolk have a difficult time with this one as we are used to commodities.
Throw all of the following together in the "non-commodity" category.
1) CEO
2) Athlete
3) Healthcare
4) location, location, location.
There is limited supply of numbers 1-4 for "greatness".
I'm sure there are 2B people in the world who could assume the duties of CEO (after all, what do we call self employed people). But how many are qualified for the Russell 2000? Fortune 500? Dow Jones firms?
There are probably 10,000,000 in the US today who have played QB at some level of football. How many can win a superbowl? How many have won a superbowl?
How many left handed pitchers can strike out Freddie Freeman?
Your mom is going in for routine surgery. Are you not looking for the best surgeon and best facility available? What about for your wife? Your child?
There are millions of homes for sale. But homebuyers take a microscope and search specific neighborhoods and communities. Developers ignore plenty of raw land outside of cities. Why? It isn't a commodity. There is limited supply in the property's uniqueness.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 2:23 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
is still just a prediction by some guy.
Its a prediction by everyone not some guy
quote:
US pending home sales stuck at 22-year low despite dip in rates
Home sales just increased this last month
Once the media hypes 5% rates (which are here) its going to get wild
Posted on 12/29/23 at 3:33 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Once the media hypes 5% rates (which are here) its going to get wild
Huh? Rates are still in the mid 6's unless you have impeccable credit or some other benefit.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 3:54 pm to skewbs
Is there still going to be a shortage when all the boomers start to die off or go to old folks homes?
What happens to the market then?
What happens to the market then?
Posted on 12/29/23 at 4:20 pm to baldona
quote:
I’m not saying it’s a buyers market, but if I was a buyer I’d be patiently throwing out lowball offers with the plan to refinance if rates drop and I get a good deal
Had someone offer me 6% less than ask 2 months ago and I didn't take it on my house. I offered 3% less than ask 2 months ago on a house and they said I offended them
This post was edited on 12/29/23 at 4:22 pm
Posted on 12/29/23 at 4:21 pm to skewbs
quote:
Huh? Rates are still in the mid 6's unless you have impeccable credit or some other benefit.
Thats what the media is telling you which isnt true
Posted on 12/29/23 at 4:27 pm to Rize
quote:
Had someone offer me 6% less than ask 2 months ago and I didn't take it on my house. I offered 3% less than ask 2 months ago on a house and they said I offended them
No doubt its blindly throwing darts. But at some point you gotta jump into the market and if you are unsure, then at least feel decent about your price.
Did you end up selling?
Purchasing and selling real estate is not a business for the easily offended.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 4:28 pm to baldona
No doubt its blindly throwing darts. But at some point you gotta jump into the market and if you are unsure, then at least feel decent about your price. Did you end up selling? Purchasing and selling real estate is not a business for the easily offended.
Not yet. House is still for sell in Baton Rouge.
Not yet. House is still for sell in Baton Rouge.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 4:29 pm to SDVTiger
Lowest I'm seeing rn is 6.125%
Was a little lower earlier this week.
Was a little lower earlier this week.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 4:35 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Par is 5.920
Fha is 5.375 + .5 mi is 5.875
Fha is 5.375 + .5 mi is 5.875
Posted on 12/29/23 at 4:43 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Par is 5.920 Fha is 5.375 + .5 mi is 5.875
I’m loving these rates coming down.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 5:04 pm to JusTrollin
quote:Well, I can tell you there's been a slaughter in senior living assets as "aging in place" has become MUCH more common than anyone had predicted. The average age of first entry into a retirement home has gone up.
Is there still going to be a shortage when all the boomers start to die off or go to old folks homes?
In theory, the market is well aware of any coming increase in supply of any size.
Posted on 12/29/23 at 5:44 pm to ronricks
Buy the house you can afford when you can afford it. Someone will always get the benefit when you feel you were screwed and vice versa.
Posted on 12/30/23 at 11:52 am to baldona
quote:quote:
Plenty of reasonable commentary in this thread. But it's pretty simple: there is a shortage of ~4 Million dwelling units in this country. As long as that is the overhanging macro condition, you can expect a fairly strong housing market.
I'm not convinced of this at all.
You may be looking at it from too high a vantage point. It sounds like you are looking at it from the very generalized view of "# of homes vs # of homeless".
If so, you're missing that the problem isn't that there are too few homes available for sale, it's that there are too few available where people want to live at price points they can handle. For instance, there are many homes available in and around Bastrop, LA, but fewer and fewer people want to live there.
It all goes back to the three most important things in real estate: location, location & location.
This post was edited on 12/30/23 at 11:54 am
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