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Started By
Message
re: Mortgage rates surge over 7% as tariffs hit bond market
Posted on 4/11/25 at 7:15 pm to ronricks
Posted on 4/11/25 at 7:15 pm to ronricks
quote:
SDVCuck says that's not true and rates should be lower and you can't read a balance sheet and mortgage rates will be high 4's in a matter of time etc
You left out "you've never been right about anything"
0
Posted on 4/11/25 at 7:55 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Suddenly, people want our bonds less, and will dump them. “Eliminating the trade deficit” is tangent to removing reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar.
Or you end up with 36 trillion in debt and you don’t make anything.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 8:15 pm to dgnx6
We make a lot of stuff.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:19 pm to Clint Torres
quote:Japan
China is apparently dumping bonds causing rates to rise.
Posted on 4/11/25 at 10:49 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Probably because of the recent volatility of the 10 year bond rate. Just one week ago today the rate dipped below 4%.
At today's 4.4% it means the rate has gone up 10% in 5 trading days.
From what I have been reading about the basis trade is basically financiers and hedge fund guys buying bonds and using 100x leverage in futures deals on the same bonds to make a minimum spread. Then things get wonky and they have to unwind all of this stuff it causes problems.
It shows just how great a job again our SEC is at making sure these groups don’t do shite to blow up the world.
Posted on 4/12/25 at 7:16 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Spreads between the 10 year and average mortgage rate are higher.
Posted on 4/12/25 at 9:44 am to SDVTiger
quote:
I thought it was Chyna dumping but doesnt seem like it.
I heard it was Japan and AUS
Posted on 4/12/25 at 11:16 am to Chicken
quote:
Mortgage rates surge
quote:
That’s the highest rate since mid-February.
I must have missed the story where they surged down.
Posted on 4/12/25 at 11:58 am to OysterPoBoy
They plummeted for like a day
Posted on 4/12/25 at 1:02 pm to Hateradedrink
Clearly an attempt to dump treasuries could backfire as well. If the prices dropped and yields went up, many investors might find U.S. bonds a great bargain compared to negative yield bonds elsewhere and buy the bonds back quickly, leaving China with a capital loss and not much else to show for it.
Are China’s Treasuries an economic weapon or a political trump card? We will see.
Maybe our new partners will pick up the bonds as part of Trump's strategy.
Posted on 4/12/25 at 1:20 pm to QboveTopSecret
quote:
many investors might find U.S. bonds a great bargain compared to negative yield bonds
Investors had that opportunity Wed. at the 5% level and weren't interested which is why Trump paused tariffs. There is a real concern Japan and China could start a coordinated sell program that might overwhelm the market.
I can believe that part of some agreements will be countries stepping up purchases of treasury securities.
Posted on 4/12/25 at 2:15 pm to QboveTopSecret
Look at it this way. If the world were to dump our treasuries, it would suck for them but it would be the end of the U.S.-centric economic policy for the world.
China holds about 700b in treasuries.
If you’re China, would you consider 700b to bloodlessly topple US economic hegemony cheap, or expensive?
China holds about 700b in treasuries.
If you’re China, would you consider 700b to bloodlessly topple US economic hegemony cheap, or expensive?
Posted on 4/12/25 at 5:43 pm to Hateradedrink
If they topple the US economic hegemony, where do they sell their shite? They are not a consumer economy. They are an export economy. They reportedly have 20% youth unemployment now and most Chinese have their retirement funds in real estate. Housing is a bad investment generally in a population that is shrinking like China. The CCP have to keep propping the economy up or the country unravels. They can’t afford to fight Trump long on tariffs.
This post was edited on 4/12/25 at 5:44 pm
Posted on 4/12/25 at 5:47 pm to Drizzt
quote:
They can’t afford to fight Trump long on tariffs.
Doesn't look like they have too.
Posted on 4/12/25 at 7:03 pm to Drizzt
quote:That’s the rub on this entire situation. Nobody in the world can afford for the US to stop buying. If anyone “wins” an economic war with the US, they and everyone else still lose. It’s not good for anyone when the bank fails.
If they topple the US economic hegemony, where do they sell their shite?
This post was edited on 4/12/25 at 7:12 pm
Posted on 4/12/25 at 10:00 pm to beaverfever
China doesn’t think in terms of decades.
Posted on 4/13/25 at 12:58 am to Hateradedrink
quote:In the early 1970’s China’s Chairman Mao was intervewed by a French newspaper reporter.
China doesn’t think in terms of decades.
The reporter asked him, “Chairman Mao, what effect do you think the French Revolution of 1789 had on the concept of democracy?”
Mao replied,”It’s too soon to tell.”
This post was edited on 4/13/25 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 4/13/25 at 7:49 am to SquatchDawg
quote:
shows just how great a job again our SEC is at making sure these groups don’t do shite to blow up the world.
What do you want them to do? They’ve all been fired.
Seriously though, the federal govt is in complete paralysis from everything I’ve heard. A lot of people fired, a lot of bosses gone so no direction and confusion amongst employees, people just keeping their head low so not doing a lot so they don’t rock the boat, and high level appointees just putting out political initiatives every other day with no real direction.
Posted on 4/13/25 at 9:20 am to beaverfever
quote:quote:That’s the rub on this entire situation. Nobody in the world can afford for the US to stop buying. If anyone “wins” an economic war with the US, they and everyone else still lose. It’s not good for anyone when the bank fails.
If they topple the US economic hegemony, where do they sell their shite?
This. As rates go up though, eventually it brings buyers back in. The problem, of course, is this is debt being financed so higher yields means higher debt servicing.
Someone mentioned how the Chinese don't think as short-term as we do, that's true and we need to change. This has to start with Congress cutting spending to the point where we have budget surpluses so that marginal revenue can be used to start paying down the debt. Until we get to at least the point where the budget is balanced, we're doing nothing but kicking the fiscal can down the road and that road ends only in a cliff.
Posted on 4/13/25 at 9:33 am to Motownsix
Peter Schiff has been on point about this.
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