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re: This August downturn has cost me a comma
Posted on 8/18/23 at 11:31 am to Motownsix
Posted on 8/18/23 at 11:31 am to Motownsix
People on here are so against buying and holding stocks for long term periods like over 5 years and more.
I don’t understand why this buy and hold stocks long term is so frowned upon here.
I don’t understand why this buy and hold stocks long term is so frowned upon here.
2
Posted on 8/18/23 at 12:34 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
People on here are so against buying and holding stocks
Only a few folks regularly post that this is a bad idea.
Generally it's the doom and gloom folks who are always predicting the great depression is coming soon.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 12:46 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
Am I the only dumbass that thinks we are about to hit the recession?
I think the S&P looks ripe for a 20% correction, which would be great if it happens over about 3 months instead of 2 weeks. Then we can start up the next bull market.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 12:56 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
I think the S&P looks ripe for a 20% correction,
So pretty much where the bears sold everything preparing for the great buying opportunity that was coming.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:09 pm to FLObserver
My Treasuries mature October / November
Will I be too late
Will I be too late
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:18 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
People on here are so against buying and holding stocks for long term periods like over 5 years and more.
I don’t understand why this buy and hold stocks long term is so frowned upon here.
"Buy and hold" is not frowned upon. For most people it is encouraged.
The issue I have is the "buy and hold" people telling me that "buy and hold" and being a passive investor is the only way to make money. To hell with that.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:27 pm to FLObserver
quote:
Yikes on holding mostly cash with the nice run the market has had close to a year. Buy at the bottom.
Yep, I'm walking proof of the old adage that time in the market > timing the market. I've slowly started to buy in and just accept that there might be some short term losses.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:35 pm to frogtown
Nothing wrong with short term trading.
But that's a lot different than the stories of cashing out and waiting for some huge crash or recession, which we hear people predicting constantly on here.
People who do that get burned far more often than not.
But that's a lot different than the stories of cashing out and waiting for some huge crash or recession, which we hear people predicting constantly on here.
People who do that get burned far more often than not.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 2:34 pm to Thundercles
quote:
Government deficit is insane and we're throwing away over half a trillion dollars a year on interest and not slowing down.
That's a scary predicament. Back in the late 1960's NYC had spending binge with loads of "social projects." Servicing the massive debt left the city in tatters when there was no money for basic maintenance essentials.
Posted on 8/18/23 at 5:33 pm to Drizzt
Wrong guy
This post was edited on 8/18/23 at 5:42 pm
Posted on 8/18/23 at 9:39 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
TSLA 225 puts (currently up 96% after two days)
Shorted 500 at 264.11 on 8/4. Had a target of 218.95 that exited on the open this morning for 214.20. Happy with am 18.8% return over 11 days.
Posted on 8/19/23 at 9:43 am to CHGAR
Inflation should cause upward pressure on earnings numbers, right? In simple terms, a company that earned $100 a year in 2021 will earn $110 today and even though the real return is equal, the nominal return does show an increase in earnings and cause for a stock price increase.
In other words, the “rally” may be necessary just to keep pace with inflation.
In other words, the “rally” may be necessary just to keep pace with inflation.
Posted on 8/19/23 at 4:27 pm to Dandaman
Costs are way up too - salaries, materials etc.
Posted on 8/19/23 at 4:45 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Dumb. This first mutual fund available to the public was 1976.
Huh? Open end mutual funds have been around since the 20s.
Bogle created the First Index Investment Trust in 1975.
quote:
S&P also has a 100 + year history of going up over time.
This is also incorrect, technically. S&P has been around since 1957...66 years.
Posted on 8/19/23 at 5:16 pm to wutangfinancial
Check out a stock chart from the late 40's until 1982. It went basically nowhere.
Posted on 8/19/23 at 8:02 pm to bovine1
quote:
Check out a stock chart from the late 40's until 1982. It went basically nowhere.
Different times. There was no real access to trading back then other than probably a very small percentage of the population. These days many people have access to buying stocks online etc... Add in the fact 401ks were not really around back and these brokerages have to keep buying and selling. These days i see people buying stocks that are in their 90s and teens buying stocks. That was not done in the timeframe you mention. I'm not saying the stock market hits 50k in 10 years but odds are it hits that before it goes back to 10k.
Posted on 8/19/23 at 9:01 pm to FLObserver
Maybe you're right but check Japan out the last 25 years. Bonds and stocks have been in an uptrend since 1982 until bonds started down in the recent past. Markets go up and down and they historically revert to the long term mean. To an old contrarian value player hearing "this time it's different" is scary.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 4:56 am to bovine1
Not sure what you are referring to when you talk about japan in the last 25 years. They have pretty much followed most modern countries when it comes to stock markets minus 2009 to 2013.
Nikkei
US stock market
Nikkei
US stock market
Posted on 8/20/23 at 8:46 am to FLObserver
I got my time period a little wrong you got me. I'm getting old and think slower. On 3/2/90 the nikkei was at 34,057. Now it's 27385 ish. Dead money for 33 years. Markets don't always go up for long periods historically. That's my point. I'm not trying to start a data war because you young guys can outthink me all day long but I've invested since 1982 in many markets. Stocks, bonds, futures, and currencies. My only point is that I think it's very helpful to constantly question yourself and try to figure out what your missing that could hurt you in the market. That's it and it's my opinion only. Good investing to all here.
Posted on 8/20/23 at 10:04 am to bovine1
There's always a strategy for every market, bull or bear. Mine could be dead wrong, but this is the route I'm going. Right now, you're getting good returns on treasuries, etc. due to the interest rate hikes. Those hikes have probably leveled off. So, I would just keep the new money going into a mix of short term and stocks, for now. As we get closer to a recession, you keep the same strategy, but start to work in some bonds, up to the point rate cuts start to hurt the money market investments. Then, you'll likely see your bonds go up and stock prices get cheaper. Then, start to shift the money market stuff back into stocks. I would try to dollar cost average all these moves and make adjustments slower. I also don't ever really move out of stocks (could be a flaw). The only play we have is from the MM funds and any new money going in. So, right now, I don't mind going higher in MM funds, due to the interest rate and the realization that that's where I'll pull when stocks get cheaper.
Again, could be dead wrong, but this strategy makes the most sense to me. However, every time I think the market will do one thing, it usually does the other.
On a good note, a recession will give us some good prices on the big ticket items that the non-investors are sucking up in droves right now.
Again, could be dead wrong, but this strategy makes the most sense to me. However, every time I think the market will do one thing, it usually does the other.
On a good note, a recession will give us some good prices on the big ticket items that the non-investors are sucking up in droves right now.
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