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Message
re: Will the Bitcoin selling start accelerating?
Posted on 2/6/26 at 9:32 am to go ta hell ole miss
Posted on 2/6/26 at 9:32 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
As with many things, when the masses start thinking it is time to buy, it’s usually a top. When the masses start thinking selling will accelerate, the bottom is probably in. I have no way to value BTC because there is no business model and the thesis seems to change. It is certainly not a hedge on inflation, not a storer of value and even after mainstream acceptance, it is subject to 50% declines over six months periods. All that to say, I decided to gamble and buy at $63k. If it falls to $50k I’ll buy more. If it goes below $35k, I’ll be like emu farmers of the 1980s and MMM investors is 1990. I’ve spent money on worse things.
Agree with most of this. I don't see a reliable way to value it. I bought a small amount of ibit when btc was around 90k. May never see a profit, but not sweating it. Went from 0% stake to less than 1/2 of 1%.
I have heard your first comment many times, but have made a lot of money doing the opposite.
quote:
As with many things, when the masses start thinking it is time to buy, it’s usually a top.
I seldom have gotten in on the ground floor of big winners. I have made a lot of money by jumping in to high risers after they have proven themselves. One doesn't have to outsmart the market to do well. I got in to the majority of my individual stock winners after they were already clearly winners. I am up on Nvda over 1000%, but this is small relative to what it is up for the past 10 years. Same story for Appl, Goog, Amzn, Wmt, ... Many years ago, it was Qcom, Amat, Wmt. I tell my kids they don't need to be expert stock pickers to make money. I am a bona-fide "coat-tail chaser" as an investor.
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Posted on 2/6/26 at 9:38 am to T1gerNate
Bitcoin was a good investment early on along with a few other cryptocurrencies that appeared to have some utility
Turns out they don’t. It’s not secure for anonymous transactions and the costs of a transaction make regular purchases not worth it. It’s not feasible in its current state as a currency alternative for daily expenditures.
If you’re looking to jump into bitcoin now you’ve missed your chance, you’ll likely be holding the bag. Maybe you can time it to catch a dead cat bounce but that’s always risky
Turns out they don’t. It’s not secure for anonymous transactions and the costs of a transaction make regular purchases not worth it. It’s not feasible in its current state as a currency alternative for daily expenditures.
If you’re looking to jump into bitcoin now you’ve missed your chance, you’ll likely be holding the bag. Maybe you can time it to catch a dead cat bounce but that’s always risky
Posted on 2/6/26 at 10:09 am to Pendulum
quote:All you're describing is momentum trading a meme stock.
I was reading this thread yesterday evening right after work, and scrolled past just one too many "going to zero" posts and antibtc knights taking victory laps; it peaked out in this thread almost exactly as btc bottomed at 60k and violently bounced of 60k on the dot. Kept going to the chart and then back to this thread for another victory post and i couldnt stop myself, I bought some btc at 62k and just sold it for a nice 7-8%. I already have alot and I havent sold anything I owned before yesterday.
This board is an amazing anti-sentiment indicator, you can find bottoms on any asset in real time. By the time you read any sentiment here in concentrated volume, its time to take the other side of the trade.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 10:17 am to Big Scrub TX
Take a massive short btc position and post pics. I would respect the hell out of it.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 10:27 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Probably in the mid-to high hundreds of dollars as an industrial metal.
If you absorbed all the bullion (not to mention jewelry) into industrial applications somehow, it would not be sniffing a price of mid-to-high hundreds of dollars. To take up that kind of volume, it would have to displace copper, silver, nickel and aluminum in applications, so it would have to be cost competitive with those metals.
quote:
Actual scarcity of something that cannot be reproduced.
But no intrinsic value.
quote:
A printing press and the most powerful military in the history of civilization.
But no intrinsic value.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 10:29 am to beaverfever
quote:I've been long since 2013, just not in crazy size. call it 1% of net worth. Ditto gold.
Take a massive short btc position and post pics. I would respect the hell out of it.
However, I don't see hardly any fundamental case for either and I won't pretend there is one.
I've been a much harsher critic of MSTR and rightfully so.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 10:48 am to Big Scrub TX
I don't have a problem with your assessment.
My point wasn't that BTC is foolproof long term and everyone should buy. It was just pointing out how no one should take advice to heart from this thread and base any short term decision making on panic or anti-btc knight dunking, and that money talk overall is not a good place to make short term decisions on.
People were typing things like "best to just cut your losses, it's going to zero one way or another" at the absolute bottom almost exactly of an insane intraday move. If anyone took that post to heart, they lost money vs waiting like an hour.
Whenever I see clear examples of this on money talk, I like to point it out. Maybe someone will lose less money in the future on a different crash with that seedling in their head.
I mean, I'm pretty much just reposting one of the most famous sayings in investing coined by Buffet, sue me.
For ref: I had about 7% of my total investible wealth in BTC at EOY 2025. It's less now
However, I only had one sell order on BTC this year, the one I mentioned this morning. It seemed pretty obvious to me, yesterday was not the day to sell. When I see an intraday chart like that, I'm thinking buy or nothing.
My point wasn't that BTC is foolproof long term and everyone should buy. It was just pointing out how no one should take advice to heart from this thread and base any short term decision making on panic or anti-btc knight dunking, and that money talk overall is not a good place to make short term decisions on.
People were typing things like "best to just cut your losses, it's going to zero one way or another" at the absolute bottom almost exactly of an insane intraday move. If anyone took that post to heart, they lost money vs waiting like an hour.
Whenever I see clear examples of this on money talk, I like to point it out. Maybe someone will lose less money in the future on a different crash with that seedling in their head.
I mean, I'm pretty much just reposting one of the most famous sayings in investing coined by Buffet, sue me.
For ref: I had about 7% of my total investible wealth in BTC at EOY 2025. It's less now
However, I only had one sell order on BTC this year, the one I mentioned this morning. It seemed pretty obvious to me, yesterday was not the day to sell. When I see an intraday chart like that, I'm thinking buy or nothing.This post was edited on 2/6/26 at 11:04 am
Posted on 2/6/26 at 11:37 am to Pendulum
quote:Agreed. And I, for one, was not making any short-term recommendations.
It was just pointing out how no one should take advice to heart from this thread and base any short term decision making on panic or anti-btc knight dunking, and that money talk overall is not a good place to make short term decisions on.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 1:13 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
But 90-99% lower than here? I think it's probably 75% chance that happens in the next 10 years.
quote:
I've been long since 2013
OG 13 year bitcoiner thinks there’s a 3 in 4 chance we go to near zero. Totally believable.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 1:37 pm to PhiTiger1764
It wont go to zero, but those that think sub 5k is not an option havent been in the crypto game long.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 1:49 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:I had Butterfly Labs mining equipment in 2013.
OG 13 year bitcoiner thinks there’s a 3 in 4 chance we go to near zero. Totally believable.
They were mining at a crazy rate for like 70 days and then went obsolete very quickly. It was annoying because they took like 10 months to deliver the units, during which time the mining would have been insane. I think they ultimately got in trouble for not delivering on some that people had pre-paid, so I always counted myself lucky in that regard. The interface on the front was literally just a Pixel tablet that they inserted lol
I've actually been meaning to ask if I should hold onto them as a relic of potential value or just trash it. It was one very small unit and 3 really big ones.
I was a big believer very early, but after watching years of empty promises, I changed my view.
This post was edited on 2/6/26 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 2/6/26 at 2:11 pm to Big Scrub TX
I think the majority of the initial excitement was the DIY aspect of minting your own coins. That slowly faded into creating coops, which further devolved into plugging your rigs in at work to bypass the electricity costs. There was some popular threads on the MT for a while where people were pinging local cell towers to earn some coins they could later convert. Those days are long gone.
The real threat at this point seems to be simple practicality. How will the current believers recruit future followers with the escalating requirements for industrial equipment and an arrangement with local warlords for a cheap power source, just to keep the system running?
The real threat at this point seems to be simple practicality. How will the current believers recruit future followers with the escalating requirements for industrial equipment and an arrangement with local warlords for a cheap power source, just to keep the system running?
This post was edited on 2/6/26 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 2/6/26 at 2:53 pm to 22jctiger22
quote:
It’s going to zero. Whether it happens in two years or twenty, it will eventually end there.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 3:47 pm to lsuconnman
quote:I asked the question earlier and am looking for an actual answer: if spot price is way below current mining price, what happens if miners just pack it in?
The real threat at this point seems to be simple practicality. How will the current believers recruit future followers with the escalating requirements for industrial equipment and an arrangement with local warlords for a cheap power source, just to keep the system running?
Posted on 2/6/26 at 4:31 pm to Big Scrub TX
The simple answer is the network becomes insecure or shuts down entirely. I remember someone in the old crypto thread answered the question with a theoretical solution that was laid out by bitcoin’s founding fathers.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 5:34 pm to lsuconnman
quote:So how long can it stay below spot before something like that happens? Nobody's worried at all?
The simple answer is the network becomes insecure or shuts down entirely. I remember someone in the old crypto thread answered the question with a theoretical solution that was laid out by bitcoin’s founding fathers.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 5:53 pm to Big Scrub TX
Nobody’s even worried about the obsolescence of a 20 year old technology, why would they concern themselves with future network maintenance?
I’m sure the solution involves democratic decision making and forks.
I’m sure the solution involves democratic decision making and forks.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 5:54 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:MSTR traded 57M shares today and rallied 28%. Want to guess why? Take a lap.
The severity and violence of the correction has to be partially brought on by hedging and people actively trading it.quote:
Posted on 2/6/26 at 6:37 pm to beaverfever
quote:I mean, bitcoin was up a lot so MSTR SHOULD be up.
MSTR traded 57M shares today and rallied 28%. Want to guess why? Take a lap.
But now that bitcoin is back up to 70, tell us more about the "hedging and active trading" that has brought it down from 125.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 6:42 pm to lsuconnman
quote:
Nobody’s even worried about the obsolescence of a 20 year old technology, why would they concern themselves with future network maintenance?
I’m sure the solution involves democratic decision making and forks.
Yeah, 20 years in and no real use for blockchain. When is the towel thrown in?
All the venture funds that raised in the 2015-2020 window to "invest in blockchain" represent one of the most disastrous venture vintages of all time. I would guess the median fund is down at least 80%.
So the "underlying architecture" of bitcoin is essentially useless...except for creating volatile fake money for people to speculate on - and there's a chance it's not actually even good for that in the end.
This post was edited on 2/6/26 at 6:47 pm
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