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Posted on 10/17/23 at 11:43 am to saintslsupels
quote:
NAW gets brought up all the time when discussing past draft picks. Part of my general frustration here is NAW wasn’t a lottery pick but is considered a bad pick, but somehow Trey doesn’t count as a good pick because he wasn’t a lottery pick. I understand you don’t have that opinion, but it seems like Griff gets blame for NAW but not enough credit for Trey.
I don't blame Griff for NAW.
The point i was making was you don't really blame anyone for drafting a bust at 17. It is what it is. It wasn't a bad pick, and it wasn't a good pick, and there's not much thought put into it b/c you understand the crapshoot at 17.
But drafting 8th and getting much of nothing. that's a bust, even though Jaxson and NAW both pretty much provided the same production and value to us, one is considered a bust and the other isn't.
quote:
I don’t understand why mid to late round nfl picks that hit are considered good picks, but 2nd and undrafted nba players are considered luck.
i just explained it to you. 9% of them turn out to be decent or better, while the rest is pretty much worthless.
40% of 4th round NFL picks sign a second contract.
30% for round 5
25% for round 6
20% for round 7
The 4th and 5th round of the NFL draft is more like the 12-24 picks of the 1st round of the NBA draft.
If you want to compare the 6th and 7th round to the 2nd round of the NBA, then a case can be made there, somewhat.
quote:
We scouted, worked out and interviewed 2nd round prospects, they all count the same.
everyone does, every year, yet no one is consistently great at it. Denver drafting Jokic was luck. GSW drafting Draymond was luck, and also even more luck that his play style was able to fit perfectly with the team he went to. That aspect right there has such a bigger difference on the success of almost all nba draft picks, going to the right team.
and i said i give them credit for looking for a specific type of player in the 2nd round that has been providing a higher hit rate the last few years, but it's still luck to hit on someone as good as Herb and Jose and even Naji.
What i would say has changed over the last 15 or so years is teams are so interested in drafting the young potential, and it's almost seen as a negative to take the guy that spent 3-4 years in college, and you're starting to see these older college guys in the late 1st and 2nd round having success, while the bust rate of these young potential lottery picks is going up.
Posted on 10/17/23 at 12:03 pm to saintslsupels
Outside of one year our drafts have been dog shite
Posted on 10/17/23 at 12:07 pm to saintslsupels
quote:So getting role players in the 2nd round or undrafted will be a skill we can replicate then?
I just don’t agree that these two were luck,
That is why it's generally considered luck. If you can't replicate it and continue to do it(not saying every time, I jus mean consistently doing it more so than other teams) then that would tend to lead me to believe it's a function of luck.
Posted on 10/17/23 at 12:22 pm to Macintosh
Our draft failures has more to do with our poor developmental system than anything else. We tend to do better with players who come into the system with an NBA skillset vs a tool heavy player.
Posted on 10/17/23 at 12:42 pm to supe12sta12z
I agree with you here. Maybe drafting Hawkins is a product of Griffin seeing the successes with Trey, Herb and Jose and the failures of Jaxson, and Kira. Probably why they passed on Whitmore- who they may have seen more of a project and a gamble. Again we’ll see if that was the right decision.
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