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re: Here's why the fake was a good call
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:05 pm to xiv
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:05 pm to xiv
If it was 4th and 2 I'd agree. It was 4th and 7, meaning the percentage was not 50/50. I am sorry to tell you that.
Furthermore, if you miss all they need is a FG to tie and a TD still loses it for you, not to mention you ran NO time off the clock and handed them 2 TO's they should not have still had + the 2 minute warning.
It was stupid. Plain and simple.
Furthermore, if you miss all they need is a FG to tie and a TD still loses it for you, not to mention you ran NO time off the clock and handed them 2 TO's they should not have still had + the 2 minute warning.
It was stupid. Plain and simple.
1
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:06 pm to UM Rebel
quote:
Better chance of making the FG than getting the fake.
Your analysis sucks.
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:09 pm to xiv
quote:
1. If you make it, ball game.
2. If you don't fake, and you make a field goal, they have to go 70-75 yards to win.
3. If you miss, they have to go 65-70 yards for a chance to win.
The Saints basically gave up 5-10 yards for a chance to put the game on ice.
I like the call.
then you might as well line up and go for it
sending the fattest player on the team into the endzone doesnt exactly give us the best shot to win
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:09 pm to xiv
payton is a gambler. can't get upset at him when he it sometimes fails. honestly you can't fault a coach that wants to win it rather than sit back. after that missed xp was hartley a guarantee to make it 32-26? honestly saints should of just lined up and not done a fake.
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:20 pm to Akit1
Take off your black and gold colored glasses. It was a dumb, risky call that could have cost us the ball game considering how our D was playing all day. Dumb f'n call. To add fuel to that bad call, the two passes that preceeded that fake FG was even worse. Hey, stoked as shite that we won, but we have some shite to clean up. Doubt that and you don't watch football.
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:23 pm to blowmeauburn
XIV,
Anytime the odds of two sequential circumstances are heavily stacked in your favor, you take the best odds - in this instance, you've admitted that the FG kicker is likely to make a chip shot from 30 yds out in a domed stadium - to be fair, probably more like 75% instead of 95% since the Okie had already missed an extra point, but still the odds were in his favor to make it.
You then fast-forward to the fact that ATL gets teh ball back with -0- timeouts, no 2:00 warning to stop the clock, and now must go the length of the field for the win. Odds of this happening were, as you stated probably 15%. I would say no higher.
I gotta like those two sets of odds. Much better than taking a 5% chance of a successful fake FG on 4th and 20, then turning the ball over with essentially 3 timeouts to an opponent who'd just gone for 2 TD's on prior possessions.
Bottom line, the end of game excitement speaks loudly - if ATL converts on short yardage, it is better than 50/50 that they move the ball in position for a FG, then it's 50/50 as to "who wins in OT". A 6 pt. lead with no TO's and less than 2 minutes remaining would've had much less suspense!
Anytime the odds of two sequential circumstances are heavily stacked in your favor, you take the best odds - in this instance, you've admitted that the FG kicker is likely to make a chip shot from 30 yds out in a domed stadium - to be fair, probably more like 75% instead of 95% since the Okie had already missed an extra point, but still the odds were in his favor to make it.
You then fast-forward to the fact that ATL gets teh ball back with -0- timeouts, no 2:00 warning to stop the clock, and now must go the length of the field for the win. Odds of this happening were, as you stated probably 15%. I would say no higher.
I gotta like those two sets of odds. Much better than taking a 5% chance of a successful fake FG on 4th and 20, then turning the ball over with essentially 3 timeouts to an opponent who'd just gone for 2 TD's on prior possessions.
Bottom line, the end of game excitement speaks loudly - if ATL converts on short yardage, it is better than 50/50 that they move the ball in position for a FG, then it's 50/50 as to "who wins in OT". A 6 pt. lead with no TO's and less than 2 minutes remaining would've had much less suspense!
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:24 pm to LSUMafia
quote:Good point.
If it was 4th and 2 I'd agree. It was 4th and 7, meaning the percentage was not 50/50.
quote:The end result had them pinned at their 15. Turned out that was too far for them.
It was stupid. Plain and simple.
Smart call. Saints win.
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:30 pm to TigerStuckinOkieland
quote:Sounds like we disagree, but that's a great take.
XIV,
Anytime the odds of two sequential circumstances are heavily stacked in your favor, you take the best odds - in this instance, you've admitted that the FG kicker is likely to make a chip shot from 30 yds out in a domed stadium - to be fair, probably more like 75% instead of 95% since the Okie had already missed an extra point, but still the odds were in his favor to make it.
You then fast-forward to the fact that ATL gets teh ball back with -0- timeouts, no 2:00 warning to stop the clock, and now must go the length of the field for the win. Odds of this happening were, as you stated probably 15%. I would say no higher.
I gotta like those two sets of odds. Much better than taking a 5% chance of a successful fake FG on 4th and 20, then turning the ball over with essentially 3 timeouts to an opponent who'd just gone for 2 TD's on prior possessions.
Bottom line, the end of game excitement speaks loudly - if ATL converts on short yardage, it is better than 50/50 that they move the ball in position for a FG, then it's 50/50 as to "who wins in OT". A 6 pt. lead with no TO's and less than 2 minutes remaining would've had much less suspense!
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:33 pm to xiv
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. We were LUCKY that didn't bite us in the arse. Put any cute little spin on it you want, it was a high school call and we're are fortunate it didn't cost us the game. You trusted your defense enough to stop them IF you didn't make the fake fg, you should have trusted your defense to stop them with a 6 point lead.
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:35 pm to hendersonshands
we won good call... we lost bad call
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:37 pm to RBWilliams8
Uh, no. We MADE the play work, good call. It didn't, bad call.
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:40 pm to saintsmissile
The idea was bad, in my opinion. The execution was worse. For as bad as the play was, it was set up perfect. It was an EASY conversion if Brunell isn't fricking retarded.
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:40 pm to moneyg
Success assures a win. Failure does NOT assure a loss.
Some of you need to take a course in game theory...
Some of you need to take a course in game theory...
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:40 pm to saintsmissile
If Payton didn't call for the fake, I certainly wouldn't have said, "Man, we really should have gone for that."
All things considered, I'm ok with the risk. I probably wouldn't have made the call, though. My balls aren't that ridiculously big.
(That's a lie. My balls are huge. Mastodonic, if you will.)
All things considered, I'm ok with the risk. I probably wouldn't have made the call, though. My balls aren't that ridiculously big.
(That's a lie. My balls are huge. Mastodonic, if you will.)
This post was edited on 12/13/09 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:43 pm to saintsmissile
IF we were all still here watching this game in OT, we'd be questioning "why in the hell Peyton calls the fake" - regardless of the end results of the game.
That is why the argument that "well, we won" doesn't cover up the coaching blunder.
That is why the argument that "well, we won" doesn't cover up the coaching blunder.
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:54 pm to xiv
Not a smart call! Go up by 6 and force them to march the entire length of the field to win, not 35 yards for a tie.
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:57 pm to TG
Fact be told, Vilma saved whoever called that supid f'n calls, arse.
Posted on 12/13/09 at 4:59 pm to Eternalmajin
quote:Took the words out of my mouth.
hated it more because it came after a couple bad play calls. Passing on 2nd down when we had been killing them with the run that drive was stupid. Forced us into a pass situation on 3rd and 7 and instead of a safe throw with the chance at the first, Brees tries to force one into the end zone to TE Thomas, who had no clue the ball was coming it looked like.
What REALLY pisses me off about the fake FG is Brunell being so stupid. The play worked, we had a man wide open for the easy first, and for whatever damn reason our backup QB had no inclination to actually throw the ball.
Posted on 12/13/09 at 5:03 pm to UM Rebel
quote:
But they only had to about 40 yards for a chance to tie. If we make the field goal, they have to go 70 yards. Terrilbe call. I would rather have Brees and real receivers out there than go for it.
BINGO!
Posted on 12/13/09 at 5:21 pm to xiv
quote:
The end result had them pinned at their 15. Turned out that was too far for them.
Smart call
By that logic a fumble would have been a smart call.
Obviously, everyone would prefer a TD there. But, we game them a chance to kick a FG to tie rather than force them to score a TD to win.
There were two scenarios where the Saints could win:
1. Saints make the first down on the fake OR if they do not, stop the Falcons from moving into FG range OR Falcons move into FG range and miss FG
2. Saints make FG AND prevent Atl from scoring a TD in 2+ minutes.
If you think this was a good decision, then you believe you have a better percentage chance of #1 occurring then #2.
I don't think it was a good call. I think it would have been better to just run a standarde play on 4th down. But, I certainly am not going to bitch about it.
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