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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 8/4/14 at 10:04 pm to NorthEndZone
Posted on 8/4/14 at 10:04 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Could get interesting for Hawaii. Current forecast has her as strong TS near the big island.
With Julio following close behind, not the best time for a trip to paradise.
This post was edited on 8/4/14 at 10:04 pm
3
Posted on 8/5/14 at 8:15 am to rds dc
Aren't Hawaii strikes rare?
Posted on 8/6/14 at 4:52 pm to rds dc
Just about worst case track and they upped the intensity to hurricane near big island...
Posted on 8/6/14 at 5:16 pm to NorthEndZone
Any suggestions with a Puerto Rico vacation in mid-September? 
I read online that it's the worst time to go, but everyone whose gone yearly around that time has said there's nothing to worry about.
I read online that it's the worst time to go, but everyone whose gone yearly around that time has said there's nothing to worry about.
Posted on 8/6/14 at 7:19 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
Aren't Hawaii strikes rare?
Yes. Only about one named storm every 5 years since the 1950s has even come close.
Only 2 hurricanes have made landfall since the 1950s and both of those were on Kauai.
The big island has had only one tropical storm landfall, and that was in 1958 before Hawaii statehood.
This post was edited on 8/6/14 at 7:23 pm
Posted on 8/7/14 at 5:49 pm to rds dc
And another Super Typhoon equivalent to a Cat 5:
Genevieve
ETA: Overview of the Pacific
Genevieve
ETA: Overview of the Pacific
This post was edited on 8/7/14 at 5:58 pm
Posted on 8/7/14 at 6:19 pm to rds dc
2,1,3,4
Posted on 8/7/14 at 7:02 pm to LSUJuice
Posted on 8/7/14 at 7:10 pm to SnoopALoop
quote:
Any suggestions with a Puerto Rico vacation in mid-September?
I read online that it's the worst time to go, but everyone whose gone yearly around that time has said there's nothing to worry about.
I would go without thinking twice about it. Chances of an actual strong hurricane hitting PR the time you are there are pretty slim to none. Especially this year with the conditions out there. Right now shear and dry air are dominating the gulf and Caribbean and show no signs of letting up even in the extended long range models.
Posted on 8/7/14 at 9:33 pm to lsu mike
quote:
I would go without thinking twice about it. Chances of an actual strong hurricane hitting PR the time you are there are pretty slim to none.
Pretty much, the odds of a system hitting any one given spot are pretty slim.
There doesn't look to be much going on over the next couple of weeks. The models are showing some signs that there might be a small window for something to spin up in the BoC towards the middle or end of next week. Right now, that looks like the only thing to watch
Once we head out past two weeks there should be a KW pushing into the basin. We will also be moving towards the peak of the season so there might be an uptick in activity the last week of August or the 1st week of September. After that, things look pretty calm. Both the long range Euro and the CFS look pretty dry across the basin.
Also, NOAA issued their updated outlook today. They actually rolled things back to even less active than what they were originally thinking.
This post was edited on 8/7/14 at 9:34 pm
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:32 pm to rds dc
Posted on 8/7/14 at 11:57 pm to GEAUXmedic
Starting to rain and flood in parts of the Big Island. I'm on Oahu, so we'll see later tonight what's up. Julio is the one to watch for us.
Posted on 8/8/14 at 5:42 pm to rds dc
Another shot of Super Typhoon Genevieve
Posted on 8/9/14 at 10:39 am to rds dc
Not much to watch with another huge SAL surge
and the GEFS is showing an abnormally dry MDR as we move towards the last 1/3 of August
One thing worth noting is that the long range Euro EPS is starting to show a return to near normal MSLP across the MDR in the long range. However, the MDR will probably stay on the wrong side of things until the SST configuration across the Atlantic changes.
The Gulf might be worth watching next week as another cold front pushes down. The models often times don't pickup on quick spin ups until a couple of days out and a cold front sinking towards the Gulf can kick off a surprise system.
and the GEFS is showing an abnormally dry MDR as we move towards the last 1/3 of August
One thing worth noting is that the long range Euro EPS is starting to show a return to near normal MSLP across the MDR in the long range. However, the MDR will probably stay on the wrong side of things until the SST configuration across the Atlantic changes.
The Gulf might be worth watching next week as another cold front pushes down. The models often times don't pickup on quick spin ups until a couple of days out and a cold front sinking towards the Gulf can kick off a surprise system.
This post was edited on 8/9/14 at 10:40 am
Posted on 8/10/14 at 3:24 am to rds dc
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave located just offshore of the coast of west Africa
is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur over
the next several days while it moves to the west at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave located just offshore of the coast of west Africa
is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur over
the next several days while it moves to the west at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Posted on 8/10/14 at 3:26 am to GEAUXmedic
Should I go stockpile gas for the generator now?
Posted on 8/10/14 at 3:27 am to CT
quote:
Should I go stockpile gas for the generator now?
No
Posted on 8/10/14 at 3:28 am to CT
Get a diesel generator, better yet, get a natural gas generator
Posted on 8/10/14 at 3:29 am to LSUsmartass
quote:
get a natural gas generator
I'm not staying in my house much longer.
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