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re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:04 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:04 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Wow. Isn’t Mother Nature something?
0
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:05 am to goofball
quote:
I imagine the construction quality in Grenada is nowhere near what we see in most of the US. And they are getting 150mph sustained winds.
Grenada isnt getting 150
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:16 am to LSUDUCKMAN67
quote:
I wonder if that ole baw took our advice and left Jamaica
Looks like it may pass south of Jamaica. May be a day or 2 of bad weather, but he should be OK, especially the north shore of Jamaica.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:22 am to jose
quote:
Yes. Curaçao is one of the ABC island. Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao which re located just north of Venezuela. I wasn't living on any of these, if that was part of your question
Curaçao never really gets hit by hurricanes although it did feel a little bit from one a few years ago. So if you are going to choose an island to retire to curacao is a good one. It’s also built up pretty well to being a former Dutch colony and having the huge refinery for many years. Very nice island to visit.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:24 am to Cosmo
Probably going to have a cat 5 in a couple hours. Crazy this early.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:27 am to dewster
quote:
Their hospital looks to be a good 1,000 feet up the mountain and fairly low slung. Looks well constructed compared to the rest of that island's buildings, but I doubt this thing can handle 150 mph winds.
Winds will be higher at 1000 FT elev.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:35 am to LSUDUCKMAN67
quote:
I wonder if that ole baw took our advice and left Jamaica
I looked up flights out of Montego Bay last night just for shits and giggles and the only flight out before the storm was a direct today to Newark for like $3,500/person. Not sure if it was first class or what. I'm guessing he is stuck in Jamaica.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:40 am to redneck
quote:
I looked up flights out of Montego Bay last night just for shits and giggles and the only flight out before the storm was a direct today to Newark for like $3,500/person. Not sure if it was first class or what. I'm guessing he is stuck in Jamaica.
I think I might pay it. I was there about 15 years ago and the unemployment rate was 20% and I forgot what the poverty rate was. I'd imagine things could go a little sideways being out of power for weeks or even months.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:43 am to Tigerfan1274
Sorry if this has already been answered, but is there any realistic chance this thing spins into the gulf towards Texas and Louisiana after going through Mexico? Or is the wind shear going to break it up?
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:46 am to Tigerfan1274
quote:
I think I might pay it
I'd 100% pay whatever it took to get the frick out of there but I also would have booked a backup flight coming home early whenever the storm first formed so it wouldn't have been $3,500.
Especially with how easy it is to cancel SW and get your points/$ back
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:46 am to The Pirate King
Oh man
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:50 am to The Pirate King
Meteorologist Scot Pilie is a good one to follow on Fb and Insta. He is consistently updating. So far, that heat dome might help Louisiana. But still too early to tell.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:54 am to The Pirate King
quote:
Sorry if this has already been answered, but is there any realistic chance this thing spins into the gulf towards Texas and Louisiana after going through Mexico? Or is the wind shear going to break it up?
I'd say there is a realistic chance but currently, the more probable scenario is South Texas to Northern Mexico. That can always change.
This post was edited on 7/1/24 at 1:41 pm
Posted on 7/1/24 at 11:56 am to NorthEndZone
Long range perspective...
This shows at least two things from a layman who has followed these things for about 50 years point of view (the experts can provide technical info).
1. Just a small change of heading will make a big difference in impact to Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and where on the Yucatan gets the worst of Beryl.
2. The high level clouds blowing from south to north from Panama and Colombia indicate the upper level shear that is forecast to eventually weaken Beryl. But how much will she weaken?
This shows at least two things from a layman who has followed these things for about 50 years point of view (the experts can provide technical info).
1. Just a small change of heading will make a big difference in impact to Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and where on the Yucatan gets the worst of Beryl.
2. The high level clouds blowing from south to north from Panama and Colombia indicate the upper level shear that is forecast to eventually weaken Beryl. But how much will she weaken?
Posted on 7/1/24 at 12:01 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:Damn!! I thought I'd seen all of the good hurricane videos, that was insane! Thanks for that
My friend, grab a beer and a late night snack, and let me introduce you to Josh Morgerman riding out the perfect storm that was Category 5 Hurricane Dorian as it raked the Bahamas for hours.
This is some of the most intense hurricane footage you will ever see.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 12:27 pm to Beaver Bandit
Posted on 7/1/24 at 12:43 pm to NorthEndZone
Gusts to 121 mph on the so-called 'weaker' side of the circulation. The airport is on the SW end of Grenada probably about 40 miles from the center of Beryl's path.
quote:
Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
100 PM AST Mon Jul 1 2024
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUE IN
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
Beryl continues to produce catastrophic winds and life-threatening
storm surge to the Grenadine Islands, Carriacou Island, and Grenada.
This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.
Residents should not leave their shelter and remain in place through
the passage of these life-threatening conditions.
A weather station at Grenada airport recently reported a sustained
wind speed of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust of 121 mph (194 km/h).
A weather station in St. Lucia recently reported a sustained wind
speed of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (102 km/h).
This is the last hourly Tropical Cyclone Update on Beryl. The next
intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).
SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 61.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WNW OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi
Posted on 7/1/24 at 12:45 pm to Cosmo
I was in Grenada in 04 for Ivan and then New Orleans in 05 for Katrina. The winds during Katrina were nothing compared to Ivan. The only time in my life where I legit thought I was going to die. I dont even hang around for a Cat 2 anymore.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 12:54 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Long range perspective...
This shows at least two things from a layman who has followed these things for about 50 years point of view (the experts can provide technical info).
1. Just a small change of heading will make a big difference in impact to Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and where on the Yucatan gets the worst of Beryl.
2. The high level clouds blowing from south to north from Panama and Colombia indicate the upper level shear that is forecast to eventually weaken Beryl. But how much will she weaken?
Great summary. Some short range things this morning: Beryl has been tracking just to the right (north) of the guidance envelope as it continues to be ahead of the models intensity wise. I'm not sure the trough / storm interaction later on down the road is a knife edge one, but it won't take much of a north trend to really open up a hook into the Gulf.
As you said, future land interaction will also play a role b/c a weaker storm might track far enough South to slide across the BOC and into Northern Mexico. Eyewall replacement cycles will also play a role b/c those don't always go smoothly for storms, and the low level flow in the Caribbean can impart shear on a system if it gets disorganized during an ERC.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 12:55 pm to SippyCup
Stayed home for Ida. I think we will leave again as we have for others.
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