- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
0
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:01 pm to Large Farva
quote:
Have travel plans to Cancun? Hurricane Beryl may change your plans
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:02 pm to Duke
quote:
A smaller core is easier to disrupt than a bigger one.
Would a smaller core also allow it to recover faster once entering a favorable environment, generally speaking?
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:02 pm to BurningHeart
quote:
Assuming it veers off the Yutacan as a tropical storm, how much strength could it realistically gain back for a TX or LA hit?
The problem with those ensembles is they’re still initializing the storm way too weak. Look at the coloring, it shows it as a strong cat 1 weak cat 2 with the orange/red lines at the current location, it should be pink colored to indicate a storm with max winds well over 100 knots.
That’s why the sudden northward trend. The models are trailing the actual strength of the storm but are starting to catch up now. They’ve been showing a much weaker system thus the path wnw toward Mexico. A strong storm will feel a more northward pull and also be able to fight off shear better. A more northward track also means less land interaction with the Yucatán, leaving the system more organized when it enters the gulf. This could allow it to strengthen back up quickly if it’s a low shear environment over the gulf.
HWRF has been pretty accurate so far. The last run has shear over the northern Caribbean slowly weakening it, then it clips the tip of the Yucatan and enters the gulf at 983mb which is probably a solid Cat 1. The run ends mid Gulf of Mexico with moderate re-strengthening to 970ish mb. So you could see a Cat 2-3 if that model continues to be fairly accurate on intensity.
There are a lot of unknowns at this point. The storm strengthened way faster and larger than expected so previous model runs are pretty much useless since they initialized with a much weaker system. The only thing we know is the longer it remains a major hurricane the worse it is for the gulf. We need to pray for strong shear and for that high pressure ridge to build in and stretch far enough south where it shields the northern gulf coast where even a strong hurricane will have to turn westward
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:08 pm to deltaland
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:08 pm to deltaland
quote:
deltaland
LOL
Where did you copy that from?
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:10 pm to deltaland
I still can’t figure out why the Euro and especially the GFS continue to initialize 20-30 mb off they can’t seem to get that corrected. I think it’s throwing off a lot of things when it comes to the modeling.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:17 pm to SWLA92
Let’s pray it doesn’t shoot the gap.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:19 pm to SauceBawse
Is this thing going to f**k up the vacation house that I just bought in St Maarten?
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:21 pm to WeeWee
Leaving out of Houston to Cancun on the 15th. I should be good right?
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:22 pm to NorthEndZone
(Credit to Roll Tide Ravens for linking the Weathernerds satellite page in a post this morning). It is fairly easy to create custom maps/sat loops.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:22 pm to WeeWee
More likely to f@!k up mine that I bought in Grand Cayman.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:30 pm to TrigSwig
Gotta hope it doesn’t keep trending north. I don’t trust any storm that has time to brew in the gulf, especially that big
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:30 pm to lsuman25
That reminds me of how Dorian looked. Yikes.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:37 pm to maisweh
quote:
I'm only a step about peej
Better watch out, Peej has turned over a new leaf.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:39 pm to LegendInMyMind
Did pj doom us?!? 
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:43 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
LegendInMyMind
So are they just not able to get intensity that far out? I see lots of blues and greens coming to Tejas and louisiana and not much orange and red.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:44 pm to Aspercel
Nope…. I’m out of the predication game ASPY!!!!
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:45 pm to dukke v
Thank god!
Posted on 7/1/24 at 8:46 pm to Aspercel
Page 30 of 218
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News