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Started By
Message
re: Danny - no longer a threat
Posted on 8/19/15 at 12:14 am to baytiger
Posted on 8/19/15 at 12:14 am to baytiger
The window it took on the GFS to go out to sea was so small, if it missed the window it would've ended up in the gulf. If it ended up in the gulf, it would've rode the strengthening high westward through S FLA, coupled with the ridging over GA/FL it would've ended up at the mouth of the river... not to mention the ULL over TX would've aided in perfect outflow in the central gulf.
3
Posted on 8/19/15 at 1:10 am to GEAUXmedic
This might get interesting..
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:07 am to iliveinabox
quote:
This might get interesting..
No way this thing misses us in Punta Cana next week
Posted on 8/19/15 at 5:21 am to GEAUXmedic
I ain't scared until Frankie MacDonald starts to get worried.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:10 am to GEAUXmedic
Are there any models showing it going to the gulf?
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:13 am to LSURoss
No. It's still 1500 miles from the Carribean. But if you look hard enough I'm sure some weather wisher has a model going into the GOM. It all about looking for and finding what you want to see
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:21 am to tgrbaitn08
I understand. I'm not a wisher, I just don't understand the models, tracks, terminology, etc. 
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:21 am to tgrbaitn08
I will be worried once Wafb weather guy jay grimes has on regular clothes instead of a suit when he is doing the weather
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:23 am to Byrdybyrd05
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:36 am to GetCocky11
Current Location: 11.4N, 39.8W
Geographical Reference: 1330 miles east of Barbados
Movement: West-northwest near 15 mph
Maximum Winds: 50 mph gusting to 65 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Peak Forecast Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 100 miles
Forecast Confidence: Average
Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have increased the forward speed a little and now have Danny approaching the Lesser Antilles late Monday afternoon or early evening instead of mid to late evening.
Our Forecast
Danny has changed little over the past few hours. The maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph. We have not changed our forecast philosophy and remain a little south of most guidance. Conditions are generally favorable for strengthening and Danny could become a hurricane in around 24 hours. A gradual weakening trend is possible once Danny enters the eastern Caribbean Sea. There is a chance Danny could move a little north of our track and encounter less favorable conditions.
Impacts could be felt in the Lesser Antilles as early as Monday morning. Some guidance favors a faster forward motion. However, a weaker Danny would move faster while a Danny that strengthens as expected would move at a speed similar to our forecast. There is a slight chance Danny could eventually reach the Gulf of Mexico. However, we think Danny would weaken and possibly dissipate before reaching the Gulf if it follows our forecast. If it tracks north of our forecast Danny would likely turn northward well east of the Gulf.
Expected Impacts on Land
Northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands: Moderate structural damage is possible and power outages are likely next Monday when Danny moves through. Flooding and mudslides are also likely.
Geographical Reference: 1330 miles east of Barbados
Movement: West-northwest near 15 mph
Maximum Winds: 50 mph gusting to 65 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Peak Forecast Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 100 miles
Forecast Confidence: Average
Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have increased the forward speed a little and now have Danny approaching the Lesser Antilles late Monday afternoon or early evening instead of mid to late evening.
Our Forecast
Danny has changed little over the past few hours. The maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph. We have not changed our forecast philosophy and remain a little south of most guidance. Conditions are generally favorable for strengthening and Danny could become a hurricane in around 24 hours. A gradual weakening trend is possible once Danny enters the eastern Caribbean Sea. There is a chance Danny could move a little north of our track and encounter less favorable conditions.
Impacts could be felt in the Lesser Antilles as early as Monday morning. Some guidance favors a faster forward motion. However, a weaker Danny would move faster while a Danny that strengthens as expected would move at a speed similar to our forecast. There is a slight chance Danny could eventually reach the Gulf of Mexico. However, we think Danny would weaken and possibly dissipate before reaching the Gulf if it follows our forecast. If it tracks north of our forecast Danny would likely turn northward well east of the Gulf.
Expected Impacts on Land
Northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands: Moderate structural damage is possible and power outages are likely next Monday when Danny moves through. Flooding and mudslides are also likely.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 7:39 am to TDsngumbo
Going to hit a big pocket of dry air and die.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 8:16 am to baytiger
quote:
I heard today that it looks like the new hi res GOES is going to be delayed until at least October 2017 (and operational even later). Every time I see a hi res satellite image I get sadder.
Yeah, it seems like a clown show. GAO & IG have been hammering them.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 8:19 am to rds dc
Danny's window for establishing robust convection isn't much longer. If it continues to struggle over the next 24 hrs then the more aggressive model solutions might be in jeopardy.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:03 am to rds dc
Well it really needs to stop raining here sooner rather than later ... husband still has 150 acres of rice to cut and it's no fun trying to get that done before a storm. Happened with Rita and then Gustav I think and it totally sucked. When you never know what direction things will end up, it's a mad dash.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:06 am to tiger91
Dear Danny, Please don't destroy my beloved Punta Cana.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:19 am to LanierSpots
quote:
No way this thing misses us in Punta Cana next week
OK, I think we're all aware at this point that you're going on vacation to Punta Cana. Being that this is the fourth time in this thread that you have made us aware of this fact. We get it.
This post was edited on 8/19/15 at 9:20 am
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:23 am to lsudude24
quote:
OK, I think we're all aware at this point that you're going on vacation to Punta Cana.
I was figuring this statement was just OT hyperbole but he really has said it that many times after I checked.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:33 am to toosleaux
I was wondering how much longer it would take for someone to say something
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:38 am to TDsngumbo
I'm kind of amazed how the OT manages to inject hostility into a thread about weather.
You've got some BR vs. NOLA war early on, tigerbait being the timeline nazi on every page, and someone trying to flaunt a trip to DR.
You've got some BR vs. NOLA war early on, tigerbait being the timeline nazi on every page, and someone trying to flaunt a trip to DR.
Posted on 8/19/15 at 9:49 am to Pettifogger
Hope no one in here is vacationing in Punta Cana soon.
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