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Started By
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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 8/30/18 at 1:08 pm to Jim Rockford
Posted on 8/30/18 at 1:08 pm to Jim Rockford
what's the timeframe looking like on this ole baw?
1
Posted on 8/30/18 at 1:12 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
middle to late next week.
Posted on 8/30/18 at 2:00 pm to lsuman25
One thing that is a little worrisome is that the wave is forecast to move slowly from the Bahamas into the Gulf. 4 days to travel about 900 miles or less than 10 mph. If something does develop, it will have two days over the Gulf to possibly strengthen. Also, there appears to be nothing moving southward from the north to cause an early re-curve.
Posted on 8/30/18 at 2:05 pm to lsuman25
Looks like nothing right now but the Gulf is boiling this time of year. Hoping it gets shredded over land and doesn’t have time to organize
Posted on 8/30/18 at 7:23 pm to PhillyTiger90
Whats the one off africa looking like? Headed to florida sept 7-14. I may just thread the needle!
Posted on 8/30/18 at 8:29 pm to rds dc
We need a solid storm.
I have been wanting a reason to have some people over and cook everything i have and get unnecessarily day drunk in the middle of the week
I have been wanting a reason to have some people over and cook everything i have and get unnecessarily day drunk in the middle of the week
Posted on 8/30/18 at 8:50 pm to Fat and Happy
Just do that shite because you’re a damn adult. You don’t need a storm for it
Posted on 8/31/18 at 8:13 am to rds dc
Still not much change in thinking with the wave heading towards the Gulf and the NHC seems right on keeping low end chances for development. It is a bit healthier looking this morning as vorticity has started to consolidate just north of the Islands. This wave has been lacking any consolidated vorticity in 850 - 600mb range and that is consistent with non-developing waves but we are seeing an up tick in that this morning. The current 700mb analysis:
Shifting to 90L, this is struggling a bit and that starts to put a more westward track into play. The majority of guidance still keeps this safely away from land but the 00z Euro EPS does show a westward cluster. Long way to go but if development slows then there could be additional westward shifts in the guidance.
Shifting to 90L, this is struggling a bit and that starts to put a more westward track into play. The majority of guidance still keeps this safely away from land but the 00z Euro EPS does show a westward cluster. Long way to go but if development slows then there could be additional westward shifts in the guidance.
This post was edited on 8/31/18 at 8:20 am
Posted on 8/31/18 at 8:18 am to rds dc
The ones coming after 90L bear watching.
Posted on 8/31/18 at 8:27 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
The ones coming after 90L bear watching.
Yea but too far out to worry about. The future track of 90L and a big WPAC system will influence the future steering currents across the Atlantic and the processes by which that will happen are just too chaotic to even think about. The long range models are trying to resolve this and do show a pattern that would seem to favor westward tracks but this is lower than normal confidence period, IMO.
Posted on 8/31/18 at 8:54 am to rds dc
I like the models showing what looks like my tee shot, slicing into the deep atlantic
Posted on 8/31/18 at 9:09 am to rds dc
Did they ever change the projection chances on what was it? La Nina or El Nino or whatever the hell they call it where it cools the Atlantic waters abnormally. I think they had almost a 70% of it forming this year with a possibility it would form early. I read a few weeks ago that Africa had some of their coldest waters in over 30 years so I'm guessing that probability is still high in it developing? I believe they said it would be weak but it's better than nothing for hurricane season.
I'm wondering how it will impact our winter if it does form?
I'm wondering how it will impact our winter if it does form?
Posted on 8/31/18 at 11:32 am to deuce985
quote:
I'm wondering how it will impact our winter if it does form?
They are saying one of the harshest winters in a while.
Posted on 8/31/18 at 11:35 am to rattlebucket
quote:
I like the models showing what looks like my tee shot, slicing into the deep atlantic
Let's just hope that this isn't that one time you actually play your fade and end up snap-hooking it...
Posted on 8/31/18 at 12:10 pm to Mudminnow
Almanac said it’s going to be a warm winter down here
Posted on 8/31/18 at 8:19 pm to rds dc
NHC with a slight bump to 20%
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located just south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from Hispaniola
northward for a few hundred miles over the adjacent Atlantic
waters are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This activity is forecast to spread westward or
west-northwestward enhancing the rainfall across portions of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Florida
into early next week. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
prevent any development of this system during the next 2 to 3 days,
but environmental conditions could become less hostile when the
system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle
part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located just south-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from Hispaniola
northward for a few hundred miles over the adjacent Atlantic
waters are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an
upper-level trough. This activity is forecast to spread westward or
west-northwestward enhancing the rainfall across portions of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Florida
into early next week. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
prevent any development of this system during the next 2 to 3 days,
but environmental conditions could become less hostile when the
system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle
part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:15 am to rds dc
CMC coming in strong, takes it to Texas
GFS still very weak but you can tell there is a lowering of pressure.
Euro coming in more bullish this run.
This post was edited on 9/1/18 at 1:20 am
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:22 am to lsuman25
5 day Euro
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:48 am to lsuman25
God hates Louisiana.
Posted on 9/1/18 at 1:54 am to Jim Rockford
I wouldn't sound the alarm just yet, 5 days is still a decent time for it to change. Just something to watch closely.
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