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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/1/17 at 2:32 pm to Dick Jacket
Posted on 9/1/17 at 2:32 pm to Dick Jacket
quote:
So is the forecast that coastal Georgia is fricked? Because I just finished repairs from the last hurricane a few weeks ago.
The entire eastern seaboard should start paying attention in 5 days or so.
2
Posted on 9/1/17 at 2:48 pm to slackster
Here's our GFS ensemble split. It's the first set I've seen with so many members took the S Florida route. Looking forward to seeing this set of Euro members to see how they cluster. The CMC shifted west this last run, setting a Florida to Carolina hit as the middle ground as of now.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 2:51 pm to Duke
I'm leaving Tampa on Sunday the 10th. I should be out just before this thing arrives, right?
Posted on 9/1/17 at 2:54 pm to slackster
As I stated..... but I wish it would curl right and go out to sea....
Posted on 9/1/17 at 2:55 pm to PearlJam
Yeah, you'll be out in time if Tampa were to be in line to have significant impacts.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 2:56 pm to dukke v
Pj, what are the chances of this cutting across Florida and reforming in the Gulf?
Posted on 9/1/17 at 2:58 pm to rds dc
Just like yesterday, the 12z Euro is on the western edge of the EPS spread. There are a few members to the left of the op but most show it curving out to sea.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:05 pm to rds dc
Man, I am just terrified that this thing will come for Houston. I must have Harvey PTSD.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:06 pm to Rebel
I say highly doubtful... but still slightly possible....
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:09 pm to Duke
quote:landfall at the Cape Fear River/Oak Island NC or skirt chasing as a 4 or a 5 would DEVASTATE NC. They are always saying OBX is overdue for a direct hit.
This post was edited on 9/1/17 at 3:11 pm
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:15 pm to TthomasJR
quote:
Man, I am just terrified that this thing will come for Houston. I must have Harvey PTSD.
My GF started packing up shite to evacuate for Harvey. She lives in Covington. She went through Katrina and the March 2016 flood. If it comes more than a light shower she starts panicking.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:16 pm to Duke
Can you ask them to take off those dark red lines passing over SWFL? Please and thanks! 
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:19 pm to liz18lsu
Dark red is better than purple and blue.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:24 pm to Duke
which one is the most accurate? who was spot on with Harvey and canes before? post their tracking please.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:25 pm to cajunangelle
Euro is the king.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:26 pm to rds dc
Very intense convection in the eyewall of Irma at sunset
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:30 pm to cajunangelle
That map is of all the different runs of the GFS that ran this afternoon. They all make subtle changes to gauge an idea of the range of possible outcomes. The European model does the same thing.
This long away from US impacts, there's too much unknown to take much from an individual model run as much more than fantasy past seven days. So it's better to look at the spread of possibilities each model spits out and watch as their focus gets narrower.
So just keep watch at this point.
This long away from US impacts, there's too much unknown to take much from an individual model run as much more than fantasy past seven days. So it's better to look at the spread of possibilities each model spits out and watch as their focus gets narrower.
So just keep watch at this point.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:34 pm to rds dc
Damn, that thing is a beast
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:50 pm to Rebel
Remember the Shithouse Poet writings in bathrooms and text books during school?
PJ is the Shithouse Forecaster.
PJ is the Shithouse Forecaster.
Posted on 9/1/17 at 3:51 pm to rds dc
back to Cat 3 after a temporary dip down to Cat. 2 status
quote:
5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 1
Location: 18.8°N 39.1°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 964 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
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