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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - August 2, 2020 Update: 119,747 cases - 3893 deaths - 1,379,440 tested
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:48 pm to Tigerfan1274
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:48 pm to Tigerfan1274
quote:
According to that graph, every day since late June have been over 10% positive. Yet, the numbers are getting each day at 12:00 are only occasionally above 10% positive. Why is that? LDH says "most tests" were collected in the last 7 days. Something doesn't add up. Or am I interpreting the data wrong?
Part of it is this
quote:
78% of these cases date back to the last week (7/26-8/2). Another 11% date back to the week prior (7/18-7/25).
Cases lagging behind and no idea how those cases are divided. Highly unlikely, but those 11% could all be positive.
Also 12% of tests returned are from some other undefined time period
0
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:51 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:How convenient.... a week before school is scheduled to open. You can only fricking laugh at this point.
the recent % of deaths for people <18 compared to deaths >70 don’t even come close to matching the numbers right?
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:59 pm to Dam Guide
quote:
Do y’all think phase 2 will be lifted or extended on the 7th?
He already insinuated it will be extended.
We won’t be out of phase 2 for months.
Posted on 8/2/20 at 12:59 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
Yet the recent % of deaths for people <18 compared to deaths >70 don’t even come close to matching the numbers right?
I'm not following. I haven't really looked at the movement in deaths per day by age group. I would assume more infections of the younger group would eventually cause some sort of shift, but the mortality rate between the two groups is so large that it would barely be seen. +70 is probably more than 20x higher than below 18 at this point. Maybe more.
The below 18 group is just barely above 70 when it comes to infections.
This post was edited on 8/2/20 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:01 pm to TigersSEC2010
I know some of those statistics
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:02 pm to ldts
quote:
I was thinking more in terms of rolling averages (less statistical noise). If you have a rolling average comprised of 5 single days and 1 double day it screws with the validity.
Please, do not start this "debate" in this thread again. The last time it happened was a shitshow.
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:02 pm to fightin tigers
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:06 pm to TigersSEC2010
East Baton Rouge: 11,169 from 10,690. Pretty significant increase even over 2 days. I suppose that's expected after having all these testing centers and everyone being asked to test even if you have no COVID concerns or symptoms.
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:07 pm to fatboydave
Are the 58 new deaths counted in the fewer hospitalization number?
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:10 pm to LSUJML
Wow
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:15 pm to LSUJML
That chart skews the separation and fatality rate even worse because it takes into account the whole time period.
Huge advancements have been made for treatment and testing overall has increased. In the beginning someone under 29 getting a test was hard to come by, so most of those tests have been administered only since testing has ramped up.
Huge advancements have been made for treatment and testing overall has increased. In the beginning someone under 29 getting a test was hard to come by, so most of those tests have been administered only since testing has ramped up.
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:18 pm to doya2
My understanding is No because deaths have to be signed off by coroner & paperwork filed / processed which takes easily a few days, probably longer
Hospitalizations are supposed to be pretty accurate within a days time
Hospitalizations are supposed to be pretty accurate within a days time
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:21 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
3,467
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:22 pm to LSUJML
Yep. The last few Monday's have had really low or even 0's reported on the initial 24 hour number. The Sunday usually goes on to report average numbers.
Could be a sign that most coroners don't work on Sunday's.
LDH usually doesn't respond to any questions that ask about that type of anomaly.
Could be a sign that most coroners don't work on Sunday's.
LDH usually doesn't respond to any questions that ask about that type of anomaly.
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:23 pm to LSUJML
If only we could learn from and craft public policy based on that chart detailing age groups / diagnosed cases and deaths.
It's even more telling as young folks likely far more often have undiagnosed infections.
Unbelievable that we are closing schools over this.
It's even more telling as young folks likely far more often have undiagnosed infections.
Unbelievable that we are closing schools over this.
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:25 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
hat chart skews the separation and fatality rate even worse because it takes into account the whole time period. Huge advancements have been made for treatment and testing overall has increased. In the beginning someone under 29 getting a test was hard to come by, so most of those tests have been administered only since testing has ramped up.
Agreed. The mortality rate for anyone below 40 is almost statistically insignificant. All this fear mongering about schools is exactly that, fear mongering.
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:29 pm to Oilfieldbiology
When you bring up about kids being infected/mortality the first reply is about 'longterm health risks' which is definitely a concern, but appears to be overblown as well.
For decades we held schools with chickenpox as a risk and that is proving to be about on the same level when adjusted for age.
For decades we held schools with chickenpox as a risk and that is proving to be about on the same level when adjusted for age.
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:39 pm to fightin tigers
So the actual % positive is damn near impossible to get due to lagging test results?
Is that an accurate assumption?
Is that an accurate assumption?
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:40 pm to LSUJML
That comment about children under 18 making up more reported cases than 70+ sure seems strategically placed...
Posted on 8/2/20 at 1:46 pm to loogaroo
You would probably need to wait a week or week and a half to get a true percent positive for each individual day
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