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Message
re: powerball odds - help me win my argument - posted pg 8
Posted on 1/11/16 at 5:27 pm to tigersint
Posted on 1/11/16 at 5:27 pm to tigersint
quote:
Can amyone explain mathematically why playing a card with either 3 enen numbers and 2 odd numbers is not betther than playing a card with either 5 even numbers or 5 odd numbers? Statistically since powerball started (at least i read somewhers) 75% of numbers have came up either 3even/2odd or 3odd/2even. This is also predictable because it fallows the law of averages fir the numbers having both a 50/50 chance of being odd or even.
I don't think it's relevant that it's "evens or odds"; what you are discussing would hold true in any division of the numbers into two equal groups. Think about it. As long as you are beginning with an even number of balls, the odds of any ball being even (or odd) is initially 1 in 2, and gets less likely with each selection (since you have eliminated that type of ball in the previous pulls).
The likelihood of drawing all even (or odds) in 5 chances with 50 balls is about 2.5% (1/2*24/49*23/48*22/47*21/46). Every mixed outcome is more likely.
The same odds would be at play if you divided them at a midpoint (for instance, 1-25 and 26-50). You are significatnly more likely to have a mix of balls from the two equal groupings rather than all picks coming from either of the groups.
Unfortunately this information is completely useless when it comes to picking lottery numbers...
3
Posted on 1/11/16 at 5:35 pm to studentsect
Yes. I understand now. If you do play all even/odd numbers then you have roughly a 2% chance of having that happen. If that does indeed happen then there are less possible combinations of all even/odd , so there is a better chance that you did actually win the powerball after getting past that 2% odds or even having all the same even/odd.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 5:36 pm to tigersint
There are more odds than there are evens, since it starts at 1 and ends at 69.
But the principle would still hold true.
But the principle would still hold true.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 5:38 pm to Walking the Earth
quote:Good point. Since the powerball number only goes up to 26, there are only 21 possible combinations. Using the same formula as last time, but with 21 combinations instead of 1 we get:
There's more than 1 possible set of 6 consecutive combinations
x = 9,644,692
So It would take that many drawings to have even a 50/50 chance of 6 consecutive numbers. With such few lottery drawings in history, do you really think this is evidence of the lottery not being random?
Posted on 1/11/16 at 5:39 pm to studentsect
I was just going through the numbers of the last ten powerball drawings with the lady at the convenience store. 
We only got through eight and we were in a hurry, but I believe that all eight were a combination of 3 odd/2 even or vice versa, so there seems to be something to that. Liberal Arts guy here. Never took statistics.
We only got through eight and we were in a hurry, but I believe that all eight were a combination of 3 odd/2 even or vice versa, so there seems to be something to that. Liberal Arts guy here. Never took statistics.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 5:40 pm to tigersint
quote:So it should be:
There are more odds than there are evens, since it starts at 1 and ends at 69.
But the principle would still hold true.
3-odds/2-evens > 3-evens/2-odds > 4-odds/1-even > 4-evens/1-odd > 5-odds/0-evens > 5-evens/0-odds.
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 5:41 pm
Posted on 1/11/16 at 5:41 pm to SG_Geaux
I think paying money on something like that is pretty stupid.
That being said, I was near the line today on some personal business...I went and paid a $20 stupid tax.
Who wants to be a billionaire? Couldn't resist
That being said, I was near the line today on some personal business...I went and paid a $20 stupid tax.
Who wants to be a billionaire? Couldn't resist
Posted on 1/11/16 at 5:50 pm to buckeye_vol
Precisely.
That being said, even/odd is irrelevant to the Powerball numbers. When it comes to Wednesday's drawing 1,2,3,4,5,6 is just as likely as 2,4,6,8,10,12, which is just as likely as 11,19,34,40,64,17, which is just as likely as...
That being said, even/odd is irrelevant to the Powerball numbers. When it comes to Wednesday's drawing 1,2,3,4,5,6 is just as likely as 2,4,6,8,10,12, which is just as likely as 11,19,34,40,64,17, which is just as likely as...
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 5:52 pm
Posted on 1/11/16 at 5:53 pm to slackster
quote:Exactly, but that poster the brought it up kind of highlighted the paradoxical thinking that can arise from intuition.
That being said, even/odd is irrelevant
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 5:55 pm
Posted on 1/11/16 at 5:56 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
With such few lottery drawings in history, do you really think this is evidence of the lottery not being random?
I said "mostly random" because the thing has to have controls and procedures.
Now, I just looked at a video of a recent drawing and one thing that I was wrong about was how the balls got dumped in their hoppers. I thought they all went inside in consecutive order and were mixed but it looks like they go inside in 3 columns all at once so that randomizes it a lot more (since, for instance, 6-7-8-9-10 might not necessarily be right next to each other at the start and then separated)
Regardless, insofar as following the OP's request of "improving his odds" of winning Powerball, not purchasing a ticket with 6 consecutive numbers seems as sound a strategy as any.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 6:03 pm to Walking the Earth
quote:
Regardless, insofar as following the OP's request of "improving his odds" of winning Powerball, not purchasing a ticket with 6 consecutive numbers seems as sound a strategy as any.
Sure, as long as he understands that there is just as good a chance for it to be 6 consecutive numbers as there is any other random combination. There is absolutely no strategy applicable to the Powerball.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 6:07 pm to Walking the Earth
quote:The "controls" are the extremely poor odds, and our biases that cause us disregard those odds. It doesn't need anything else.
I said "mostly random" because the thing has to have controls and procedures.
quote:So your theory is that it's not "completely random" and your evidence is a process that makes it "more random?"
I thought they all went inside in consecutive order and were mixed but it looks like they go inside in 3 columns all at once so that randomizes it a lot more (
quote:Literally just as sound as any other combination of 6 numbers, random or otherwise.
Regardless, insofar as following the OP's request of "improving his odds" of winning Powerball, not purchasing a ticket with 6 consecutive numbers seems as sound a strategy as any.
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 6:11 pm
Posted on 1/11/16 at 6:18 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
So your theory is that it's not "completely random" and your evidence is a process that makes it "more random?"
Jesus, I flat out said I was wrong about that. You had to go through the trouble of cutting that part out.
You're in full Win the Internet mode this evening.
Also, "more random" does not equal "completely random".
quote:
Literally just as sound as any other combination of 6 numbers, random or otherwise.
Not really. The odds of it being 1-2-3-4-5, powerball 6 may be equal to it being 8-19-23-24-31, powerball 10 but the odds of 6 consecutive numbers being pulled are not equal to that not happening.
Your own math supposedly showed that.
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 6:20 pm
Posted on 1/11/16 at 6:30 pm to tigersint
The numbers you pick have no bearing on odds of winning. 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 have same odds of seven random or any other specific series of numbers hitting. Changing numbers each time also has no bearing. Same with heads or tails. Choosing heads because the last five have been tails do not improve ones odds.
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 6:34 pm
Posted on 1/11/16 at 6:32 pm to Black n Gold
quote:
I often doubt how "random" quick pick numbers actually are. The Lotto agencies have incentive to defer winning and increase jackpot payouts.
They would have to know the wining number to assure you didn't get one, but the odds are so overwhelmingly in their favor there is no reason to rig the game.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 6:33 pm to Walking the Earth
quote:Well when the process you "assumed" was happening (putting in order) is non-random, then random order is "more random."
Also, "more random" does not equal "completely random
quote:But any "strategy" is pointless as it never increases the odds. Regardless, the actual order doesn't matter so the 8 million combinations, refers to the probability of 1-5 (in any order) and 6 powerball, etc. The probability of a specific order is actually 1 in billions.
Not really. The odds of it being 1-2-3-4-5, powerball 6 may be equal to it being 8-19-23-24-31, powerball 10 but the odds of 6 consecutive numbers being pulled are not equal to that not happening.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 6:54 pm to slackster
It can be mathematically concluded that every single possible number has the same odds.
I was wondering about the even/odd thing. I knew that statistically every number has the same chance, i just wanted a mathematical explination as to why its not better to pick 3/2 even/odd.
The answer is that the reason that combo comes up so often is because there are more possibilities for it to happen. (Didnt work out the odds but i would say something like 75 ish% of numbers since around 75% of drawings end that way)
Since there is a 75% chance of 3/2 happening, you are more likely to have that happen but then there is also a larger possible chance that your combo of 3/2 does not match the powerball (since there is a very large possible outcome of 3/2 / 2/3 happening)
For all 5 to be even or odd, there is a 2% chance of that happening.
If you do overcome the 2% odds and they are all 5 even/odd , then you have a greater chance that you actually did win the powerball after the fact of them being all the same becauae there is a smaller number of possible outcomes being all even or all odd.
In the "big picture" both combos (including 4/1 even/odd) have the same probablity of winning the Powerball.
so basically you have an extremely small chance of winning powerball no matter what.
There may be hot/cold streaks that you can keep track of, but they dont affect future drawings. If you do track past numbers (such as players do in roulette) then you just got lucky, which is possible with statistics because everything is randome and independent of the past.
Now there is one thing that i believe in, and that is DESTINY. So if i cam destined to win the powerball (by Gods choice of course), then i will win the powerball. So thats why i play. And because i badly want to be a billionaire!
I was wondering about the even/odd thing. I knew that statistically every number has the same chance, i just wanted a mathematical explination as to why its not better to pick 3/2 even/odd.
The answer is that the reason that combo comes up so often is because there are more possibilities for it to happen. (Didnt work out the odds but i would say something like 75 ish% of numbers since around 75% of drawings end that way)
Since there is a 75% chance of 3/2 happening, you are more likely to have that happen but then there is also a larger possible chance that your combo of 3/2 does not match the powerball (since there is a very large possible outcome of 3/2 / 2/3 happening)
For all 5 to be even or odd, there is a 2% chance of that happening.
If you do overcome the 2% odds and they are all 5 even/odd , then you have a greater chance that you actually did win the powerball after the fact of them being all the same becauae there is a smaller number of possible outcomes being all even or all odd.
In the "big picture" both combos (including 4/1 even/odd) have the same probablity of winning the Powerball.
so basically you have an extremely small chance of winning powerball no matter what.
There may be hot/cold streaks that you can keep track of, but they dont affect future drawings. If you do track past numbers (such as players do in roulette) then you just got lucky, which is possible with statistics because everything is randome and independent of the past.
Now there is one thing that i believe in, and that is DESTINY. So if i cam destined to win the powerball (by Gods choice of course), then i will win the powerball. So thats why i play. And because i badly want to be a billionaire!
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 7:01 pm
Posted on 1/11/16 at 7:02 pm to studentsect
quote:
I also think that i have better odds of winning the powerball wednesday than i do of seeing a Deer tonight. Havent seen anything yet this trip
Well. Back at the hotel now and i didnt see shite. So a 1/3mill chance is better than the 0% chance that i see a deer in the stand tonight now
Posted on 1/11/16 at 7:10 pm to slackster
quote:
Precisely.
That being said, even/odd is irrelevant to the Powerball numbers. When it comes to Wednesday's drawing 1,2,3,4,5,6 is just as likely as 2,4,6,8,10,12, which is just as likely as 11,19,34,40,64,17, which is just as likely as...
How people don't get this and that numbers don't matter is beyond me. You can bet, though, if you go to the store and tell the cashier you want 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, he will look at you funny.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 7:17 pm to LSUTANGERINE
Yea. The only downside to playing those numbers is that something "common" like that is more likely to be picked by other players. I herd that thousands of people every week play 12345 6.
So if you win then you have to split the money.
Quick picks are generally the way to go because they avoid the common thinking that humans have and prevent people from being more likely to share the money. There is a 1/300mill chance that someone else quick picks your number.
So if you win then you have to split the money.
Quick picks are generally the way to go because they avoid the common thinking that humans have and prevent people from being more likely to share the money. There is a 1/300mill chance that someone else quick picks your number.
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 7:19 pm
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