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Message
re: 1,000 COVID deaths daily
Posted on 8/5/20 at 7:52 am to DMAN1968
Posted on 8/5/20 at 7:52 am to DMAN1968
quote:
quote:
I suppose that COVID is once again, one of the top three leading causes of death in the US. There is no other rich country for which that statement is true.
No other country had a New York to jump so hard out of the starting gate.
But whatever.
That's not actually true, but re-read what I wrote. That "once again" was a meaningful contributor to my point. Last week, COVID was the second leading cause of death in the US. It was not in the top ten causes of deaths in any other rich country. New York had about 60 of the 7,400 deaths from COVID in the US last week.
0
Posted on 8/5/20 at 7:58 am to David_DJS
quote:
Do you know how the CDC is handling COVID death harvesting in its reporting?
Hell, the CDC, Faucxi and Brix don't know what the frick they are doing let alone the honyocks on this web site.
There's only expert assholes on here, your's truly included.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 8:03 am to Mithridates6
Another misleading stat.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 8:03 am to David_DJS
quote:Nope because this is almost assuredly made up, and the people that are making it up are just completely ignoring and or unable to understand the underlying data.
Do you know how the CDC is handling COVID death harvesting in its reporting?
For example, in the COVID tracking thread months ago I noted that some states had pretty much not reported any deaths to the CDC for 2-3 months, particularly Connecticut and North Carolina. So a few months later, when their COVID deaths started showing up, people start saying that it was harvesting.
But that ignores the fact that they were months behind this whole time and all other causes of death started showing up too.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 8:06 am to FATBOY TIGER
quote:
There's only expert assholes on here, your's truly included
You believe all the doom and gloom, and everybody is dying of COVID even if they had a heart attack just before perishing?
Posted on 8/5/20 at 8:07 am to longwayfromLA
quote:What are those other countries doing differently?
I suppose that COVID is once again, one of the top three leading causes of death in the US. There is no other rich country for which that statement is true
Posted on 8/5/20 at 8:10 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Nope because this is almost assuredly made up, and the people that are making it up are just completely ignoring and or unable to understand the underlying data.
For example, in the COVID tracking thread months ago I noted that some states had pretty much not reported any deaths to the CDC for 2-3 months, particularly Connecticut and North Carolina. So a few months later, when their COVID deaths started showing up, people start saying that it was harvesting.
But that ignores the fact that they were months behind this whole time and all other causes of death started showing up too.
You’re not understanding the argument.
Let’s say I accept that all the deaths being reported as COVID are accurate. I don’t, but that’s a different debate.
This debate is about 1,000 deaths per day and is the trend line up or down.
Now read tour own post here. Do you understand how you just proved my point?
Posted on 8/5/20 at 8:20 am to David_DJS
quote:The trend is up using the real-time reporting of deaths by the counties and states. And a couple months from now, we’ll see the same phenomenon when officially classified by the CDC, as well as the data for all cause excess deaths.
This debate is about 1,000 deaths per day and is the trend line up or down.
Now it may be that the date of deaths were off by a week or so (a lag here as well) but the trend is still clear.
quote:I don’t understand what point you’re making then, because all you’ve done is referred to some vague and abstract concept of “death harvesting,” then ignored the point I made refuting the misinterpretation of the data to argue that it was death harvesting.
Now read tour own post here. Do you understand how you just proved my point?
Posted on 8/5/20 at 8:57 am to David_DJS
quote:
You believe all the doom and gloom, and everybody is dying of COVID even if they had a heart attack just before perishing?
Nope!
Is that what you read into my post?
Posted on 8/5/20 at 9:01 am to Mithridates6
In 1968 during the Hong Kong flu, as hundreds died every day without anybody noticing, your Leftist buddies would have been procuring weed and planning Woodstock. It was a far healthier approach.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 9:02 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Now it may be that the date of deaths were off by a week or so (a lag here as well) but the trend is still clear.
I don’t understand what point you’re making then, because all you’ve done is referred to some vague and abstract concept of “death harvesting,” then ignored the point I made refuting the misinterpretation of the data to argue that it was death harvesting.
You posted this earlier "For example, in the COVID tracking thread months ago I noted that some states had pretty much not reported any deaths to the CDC for 2-3 months, particularly Connecticut and North Carolina. So a few months later, when their COVID deaths started showing up, people start saying that it was harvesting"
I'm making two points here.
1. You refer to a lag of 2-3 month, or am I reading your post wrong? Not a week, but 2-3 months - and this is consistent with what Arizona Dep of Health has done (where I live, and the so-called world's COVID hotspot for July). In July, AZDHS reported deaths that dated back to March. To be clear, I'm not suggesting AZ wasn't a hotspot, or that its trendline wasn't upward for much of the month - I'm pointing out that because of this very long lag, if all you do is graph deaths on the day they were reported you are not getting an accurate picture of where the virus is. As you pointed out, in the beginning it understated COVID deaths, so doesn't it make sense to you that there'll be a later period of time COVID deaths are overstated by the same magnitude? How do you know we haven't been in that period the last 3 weeks?
2. "COVID Death Harvesting" - it's a real thing. There are hundreds of COVID deaths reported in Arizona of people that not a single time, before or after death, tested positive for COVID. So-called health officials are combing through all death certificates dating back to March and labeling any death as COVID if only two of the CDC identified "symptoms" of COVID were present. In other words, a 64 year old 5'8" 285 lb smoker with a history of heart disease keeling over from cardiac arrest would be classified a COVID death if he was at the same time suffering from allergies (congestion, fatigue). This is a fact, at least here in Arizona - and I don't think Arizona is doing anything that isn't being done pretty much everywhere.
By the way, what do you make of the day last week Arizona reported negative COVID deaths? Doesn't that make you feel confident about all the "stats" we're making decisions by?
Posted on 8/5/20 at 9:11 am to Chromdome35
quote:
He is just selectively using cherry picked data (that even includes a disclaimer that it isn’t complete) to try to make a point, just like the msm does.
Once the data is in place three weeks or so, it doesn’t change more than about 1%
Posted on 8/5/20 at 9:47 am to David_DJS
quote:Yes. I am referring to specific states that have significant delays in their reporting of DEATHS FROM ANY AND ALL CAUSES.
Not a week, but 2-3 months
quote:There were very few of these, and they’ve similarly corrected deaths the other direction as well. Most of the deaths lag a week or so.
In July, AZDHS reported deaths that dated back to March.
quote:And probable deaths are a fraction of confirmed deaths, whereas for the seasonal flu, confirmed deaths are only a fraction of probable deaths.
There are hundreds of COVID deaths reported in Arizona of people that not a single time, before or after death, tested positive for COVID.
Many, if not most, deaths do not actually have any extensive autopsy or evaluation to determine the cause of the deaths. My wife’s uncle just died after being quite sick for sometime. I don’t think anybody knows the very specific cause of his death, but I’m sure one is listed.
In other words, you’re making it seem like this is unusual, when in fact, it’s far less “unusual” compared to other similar causes of death.
This post was edited on 8/5/20 at 9:48 am
Posted on 8/5/20 at 10:38 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
There were very few of these, and they’ve similarly corrected deaths the other direction as well. Most of the deaths lag a week or so.
And probable deaths are a fraction of confirmed deaths
Are you right about this?
78 of 172 Deaths Reported Today from COVID Harvesting
“This death certificate matching process allows public health to identify more deaths than just relying on identifying deaths from case investigations alone,” a spokesperson said.
quote:
Many, if not most, deaths do not actually have any extensive autopsy or evaluation to determine the cause of the deaths. My wife’s uncle just died after being quite sick for sometime. I don’t think anybody knows the very specific cause of his death, but I’m sure one is listed.
That's the point. A COD of COVID is being hunted down now. "Harvested." Health officials are going through death records where COVID is not mentioned and putting it down in the COVID death column if they simply suspect COVID could have been a factor. They're doing this only COVID.
quote:
In other words, you’re making it seem like this is unusual, when in fact, it’s far less “unusual” compared to other similar causes of death.
This is neither here nor there. We've never had COD be such a sensationalized political issue before.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 11:00 am to David_DJS
quote:COVID deaths are almost assuredly underreported, based on excess deaths and the relationship with the outbreak’s distribution and the spatial distribution. Now it’s probably only 25% to 50% higher in the US, compared to multiple factors higher in poorer nations.
That's the point. A COD of COVID is being hunted down now. "
That being said, with an expansion of testing and inclusion of probable deaths, the under-reporting should be less. And there will always be measurement error, both ways, but right now there is a measurement bias downward.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 11:44 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
COVID deaths are almost assuredly underreported, based on excess deaths and the relationship with the outbreak’s distribution and the spatial distribution. Now it’s probably only 25% to 50% higher in the US, compared to multiple factors higher in poorer nations.
That being said, with an expansion of testing and inclusion of probable deaths, the under-reporting should be less. And there will always be measurement error, both ways, but right now there is a measurement bias downward.
You're suggesting COVID has actually claimed about 200,000-250,000 Americans so far? What's the reported cause of death of the 50,000-100,000 that should be COVID?
Posted on 8/5/20 at 11:48 am to OccamsStubble
quote:Well, that graph ends at 7-25, so it's incomplete. But there were not only 175 deaths on 7-25. It's wrong and/or lagging badly.
Or I can review the data from the one organization that is tied into every health facility in every city in every county in every state in the US.
I don’t know where the data originates in that thread. I do know the epidemiologists at CDC, and they are the definitive source. Look at the graph here, and tell me deaths aren’t falling
Posted on 8/5/20 at 12:16 pm to OccamsStubble
quote:They aren't falling.
Or I can review the data from the one organization that is tied into every health facility in every city in every county in every state in the US.
I don’t know where the data originates in that thread. I do know the epidemiologists at CDC, and they are the definitive source. Look at the graph here, and tell me deaths aren’t falling
LINK
Posted on 8/5/20 at 12:21 pm to Malik Agar
quote:
I'd bet $1,000 that the number of healthy people offering themselves because of social distancing, businesses going under, and getting laid off + drug ODs since people are alone is 10x that number
You would lose $1,000
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