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Started By
Message
re: ATL Fed - 4Q18 GDP Projections fall to 1.4%
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:02 pm to IrishTiger89
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:02 pm to IrishTiger89
quote:
I think a lot of analysts are pessimistic right now. You can see that pessimism reflected in the markets. The global economy is slowing a lot and most projections are for weaker earnings in 1Q19. All of this has nothing to do with my opinions about our president.
It’s crazy how any attempt to raise rates starts to rattle the markets. Europe isn’t ending ZIRP/QE any time soon if the US is a case study. Even Trump started bitching when our market dropped 15 erasing the gains from the last 12 months. We recovered which shows it was a bit artificial, but it’ll be worse for Europe when they start trying to return to normal.
Even with our economy firing on all cycllnders, we can barely handle it. When the bond market crashes, over priced equities are still going to be every where, and we are gonna be fuuuucked.
2
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:19 pm to GumboPot
The next GDP will come out on the 28th of February?
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:22 pm to brian_wilson
quote:Heard some idiot, I mean expert, on the radio today claim it's due to a lack of houses on the market.
I personally think its mostly due to interest rates increasing and I doubt it helps millenials that much.
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:23 pm to TeLeFaWx
Yeah this is a very good point. An economy that cannot take 25 bps raises during strong growth and low unemployment has some serious problems — and no I am not saying Trump is the cause of most of this
This post was edited on 2/21/19 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:27 pm to Sidicous
quote:This is pretty much the consensus. Single-family new builds are low and baby boomers who would typically downsize and sell their homes at this age are reluctant to sell due to being locked in to historically low rates.
Heard some idiot, I mean expert, on the radio today claim it's due to a lack of houses on the market.
Why is that idiotic?
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:27 pm to IrishTiger89
quote:But rates haven't been raised by 25 basis points.
An economy that cannot take 25 bps raises during strong growth and low unemployment has some serious problems.
It's been 200 basis points in increases in the last two years.
ETA: It's becoming more apparent you've got an agenda.
This post was edited on 2/21/19 at 3:28 pm
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:34 pm to IrishTiger89
What does 4Q GDP need to be to be 3% for the year?
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:35 pm to IrishTiger89
quote:
You can see that pessimism reflected in the markets.
Pessimism is due to concerns that Democrats are more interested in looking into President and locking down the rule making process than working together. This started a couple of months before the Mid-term elections
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:36 pm to IrishTiger89
Why do you want crap growth?
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:38 pm to BayouBengal12112015
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:38 pm to The Boat
quote:
What does 4Q GDP need to be to be 3% for the year?
I believe 3% and change. The annual growth is not the average of the 4 quarters. So we're not gonna hit 3% for the year.
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:39 pm to cahoots
That makes about as much sense as tits on a pig.
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:45 pm to cahoots
I don’t get why growth slowed so much in 4th quarter
We were well on our way to 3% growth for first time since 2005. Sites like marketwatch were treating it as a given
Then 4th quarter happened....
Oh well
We were well on our way to 3% growth for first time since 2005. Sites like marketwatch were treating it as a given
Then 4th quarter happened....
Oh well
This post was edited on 2/21/19 at 3:46 pm
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:48 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:The House of Representatives flipped in early November. A lot of businesses started conserving cash to prepare for the anti-business HoR.
I don’t get why growth slowed so much in 4th quarter
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:54 pm to The Boat
quote:About 3.63%
What does 4Q GDP need to be to be 3% for the year?
Posted on 2/21/19 at 4:03 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
I don’t get why growth slowed so much in 4th quarter
We were well on our way to 3% growth for first time since 2005. Sites like marketwatch were treating it as a given
Then 4th quarter happened....
Oh well
Its a good question because we had blow retail sales for the holidays. Maybe the cold and wet weather dampened construction activity.
Posted on 2/21/19 at 4:12 pm to Sidicous
quote:
Heard some idiot, I mean expert, on the radio today claim it's due to a lack of houses on the market.
lack of inventory is a big issue. But house prices falling is not due to lack of inventory.
Heck, in quitea few areas we are seeing a spike in inventory.
Posted on 2/21/19 at 4:13 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:Because it all depends on location. There are loads of homes for sale in some areas...because people do not want to be there. And the hot markets where people DO want to be are of course short because of the current demand.
This is pretty much the consensus. Single-family new builds are low and baby boomers who would typically downsize and sell their homes at this age are reluctant to sell due to being locked in to historically low rates.
Why is that idiotic?
Would expect to see greater availability of homes in NY with the recent tax structure changes and movement away from there. Of course the demand for homes in FL exceeds the availability for the same reasons. Location, location, location.
People are fleeing CA so the availability should be increasing in CA, and decreasing in CO, TX., etc.(the destination locations).
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