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Posted on 10/8/20 at 6:41 pm to StopRobot
quote:
If youre going to cherry pick the polls you like youre going to find the polls you like. Stick to the averages of the polls and you will get a better picture
Did you say this in 2016?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 6:45 pm to StopRobot
quote:
If youre going to cherry pick the polls you like youre going to find the polls you like. Stick to the averages of the polls and you will get a better picture.
How did that work on 2016? More people today will avoid polls than before as well.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 6:45 pm to TakingStock
It will be a landslide in Florida. They have lost the Cuban vote to Trump and probably a lot of the Puerto Rican vote. Latinos are hard working people and a lot of Cubans know what the result of a communist government is, they hate Castro’s fricking guts.
Also, a large chunk of the Black American vote has gone to Trump!
Also, a large chunk of the Black American vote has gone to Trump!
Posted on 10/8/20 at 6:51 pm to TakingStock
I have seen Trump stuff everywhere in northeast Florida. I’ve seen exactly one Hiden flag.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 6:54 pm to SirWinston
Posted on 10/8/20 at 6:58 pm to SirWinston
quote:
That’s actually a really good jumping off point. I agree with all those. Of course some of those not given are likely blue (CO, NM, VA) but the rest of those may all be red.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:07 pm to TakingStock
quote:In 2016 pollsters we not weighting by education, and as a result this underestimated the Trump support particularly amongst certain demographics (whites) which was why the Midwest/Rust Belt had the biggest miss.
Once again, based on poor data and or weighting,
In 2020, they are weighting by education, AND since turnout models are often based on the most recent election, they are likely to be modeling a turnout that favored in Trump in 2016, whereas there were basing them off of Obama wins.
Furthermore, there is an inherent tendency to overcorrect when errors are made. So in 2012 the polls actually underestimated Obama’s support, so I would think the tendency would to overcorrect for that in 2016. And in 2016 we know in which direction they missed, so that tendency would work in that direction, especially since their 2016 miss was for more meaningful AND heavily criticized.
Anyways, whatever extent they missed in 2016, it’s highly likely that it will be less in 2020, if not an overcorrection.
That said, I do think Trump has a better chance in Florida than in those rust belt states (MI, WI, and PA).
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 7:11 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:09 pm to BayBengal9
quote:
I'll continue to be willing to bet any amount of money Trump wins FL by 3-5%. It will be called early on election night and won't even be that close.
Let’s be clear. None of the battleground states will be called for Trump by any of the media outlets. They will let the Dems know how many Biden ballots they will need to find first.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:13 pm to TakingStock
I live right in the. Idle of central Florida and it’s pretty clear that Trump is overwhelmingly popular here. Democrats have basically disappeared here.
In 2016, you saw Hillary stickers and signs everywhere. Nothing here for a Biden.
In 2016, you saw Hillary stickers and signs everywhere. Nothing here for a Biden.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:18 pm to Volsfan82169
quote:Florida is the battleground state that will have ballots counted quickly since they already have a mail-in voting system in place and those can be counted early. Of course, a super close margin would delay a call, but all else being equal Florida would be one of the quickest called.
Let’s be clear. None of the battleground states will be called for Trump by any of the media outlets. They will let the Dems know how many Biden ballots they will need to find first.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:34 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Florida is the battleground state that will have ballots counted quickly since they already have a mail-in voting system in place and those can be counted early. Of course, a super close margin would delay a call, but all else being equal Florida would be one of the quickest called.
Damn straight. They called us before 11 last time.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:16 pm to buckeye_vol
BV is correct. It will be clear Trump won Florida by about 9:30 central.
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 8:17 pm
Posted on 10/9/20 at 12:04 am to TakingStock
Trump has Florida locked down.
Voting early on the 24th here in PCB. Trump all the way. Florida is red pilled as frick.
Voting early on the 24th here in PCB. Trump all the way. Florida is red pilled as frick.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:07 am to StopRobot
quote:
by StopRobot
If youre going to cherry pick the polls you like youre going to find the polls you like. Stick to the averages of the polls and you will get a better picture.
^^^ This is ...... dumb
You’re “averaging” fake polls
Posted on 10/9/20 at 4:44 am to Little Trump
I think a lot of the polls are legit off, and not purposefully skewed.
It can be a hostile environment; I'm voting Trump. My siblings and and immediate family know this, as do a few of my friends and coworkers. Those that know are also voting Trump. We kinda caught onto each other by catching an expression or a raised eyebrow, later confirmed by a discreet discussion.
None of us are going to answer a poll. Too much risk of harassment.
It can be a hostile environment; I'm voting Trump. My siblings and and immediate family know this, as do a few of my friends and coworkers. Those that know are also voting Trump. We kinda caught onto each other by catching an expression or a raised eyebrow, later confirmed by a discreet discussion.
None of us are going to answer a poll. Too much risk of harassment.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 6:30 am to Scoob
quote:So there is too much risk to your confidentiality to respond to a confidential poll, but not enough risk your confidentiality to not respond to a confidential ballot ran by the government, and not enough risk to your confidentially to not discuss your position anonymously to strangers on the internet?
None of us are going to answer a poll. Too much risk of harassment.
I think you’re overvaluing the confidentiality risk in regards to polling, especially compared to posting on the internet.
And I think overall, people too concerned to respond to polls, are more likely to be too concerned to step in the voting both and/or provide the answer they’re too concerned to provide to pollsters.
This post was edited on 10/9/20 at 6:32 am
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