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Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:09 am to LSU2019
quote:
It does seem youre gaining black anx latin votes but youre losing white and elderly voters. At best its a wash for you but in reality its not even that.
Do you honestly know ANYONE who voted for Trump in 2016, that is voting for Biden in 2020?
I think you'd have a better chance finding Bigfoot.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:10 am to FlexDawg
quote:
lol no.
If you want to cite polls when they say what you want to hear then ignore them when they dont then I guess thats what youre gonna do. Reality is gonna eventually find you either way.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:10 am to FlexDawg
quote:
2. You will see that you can play with the demographics to create your own scenario. If you only move Trumps support from blacks from 8% to 13% without changing anything else Trump has enough electoral votes to win.
Actually, it does no such thing. It doesn't allow you to make those changes on a state by state basis. Trump could get 100% of the black vote in Alabama, and it won't get him one single electoral vote more than he would have had. His black and Hispanic numbers could skyrocket in Alabama, Mississippi. Louisiana, and Tennessee, and a dozen other states, drop slightly in Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, giving him an overall increase nationwide in black votes, yet losing the electoral count.
Nationwide polls are useless. There are only a few states that are going to decide the election, and most of us don't live in one.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:11 am to SelaTiger
quote:
If he wins HI and New York...... actually either or..... my faith in humanity is restored.
He has a far better chance with NY, than he will ever have with HI. That state will never vote for a republican.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:12 am to BamaGradinTn
quote:
Trump could get 100% of the black vote in Alabama, and it won't get him one single electoral vote more than he would have had. His black and Hispanic numbers could skyrocket in Alabama, Mississippi. Louisiana, and Tennessee, and a dozen other states, drop slightly in Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, giving him an overall increase nationwide in black votes, yet losing the electoral count.
That’s true, but ultra implausible. Is there any evidence that a shift in the black vote is a regional phenomenon that won’t be felt largely across black populations of all regions?
My guess is a shift in the black vote in will be similarly felt across states, obviously in proportion to their black population.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:15 am to SDVTiger
quote:
My prediction is Trump takes HI and NY
He will win Cali on election night but then the mail in starts
Hell to the no. NY will be a massive spread and Hawaii is a lost cause.
California will be +30 for Biden.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:16 am to FlexDawg
When you reset it, it goes to default Biden 307 electoral votes.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:17 am to idlewatcher
quote:
When you reset it, it goes to default Biden 307 electoral votes
Yeah because that’s NBC’s prediction without any alterations.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:17 am to BamaGradinTn
quote:there should be some sort of aggregate target poll with the key states each needs to win, that would be the only true indicator and one that matters. On election day clinton was projected to win by 3 million total votes.
Nationwide polls are useless. There are only a few states that are going to decide the election, and most of us don't live in one.
She did.
Guess if that was useful.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:24 am to FlexDawg
20 million illegal ballots will show up in the mail
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:26 am to ValDawgsta
quote:
Trump could get 100% of the black vote in Alabama, and it won't get him one single electoral vote more than he would have had. His black and Hispanic numbers could skyrocket in Alabama, Mississippi. Louisiana, and Tennessee, and a dozen other states, drop slightly in Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, giving him an overall increase nationwide in black votes, yet losing the electoral count.
That’s true, but ultra implausible. Is there any evidence that a shift in the black vote is a regional phenomenon that won’t be felt largely across black populations of all regions?
My guess is a shift in the black vote in will be similarly felt across states, obviously in proportion to their black population.
My basic point is that this website doesn't allow for changing the demographics on a state by state basis.
Let's say that you want to adjust Trump's support among blacks up 5%. What's the total black voting population in Michigan and Alabama? How about Minnesota?
And what if his black numbers in Wisconsin, for example, go up, but it's because more blacks stay home? Just using round numbers, If 2,000,000 blacks voted last time and he got 10%, that's 200,000 votes. If his percentage jumps to 15% this time, but only 1,000,000 vote, that's a drop of 50,000 votes.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:30 am to LSU2019
quote:
losing white and elderly voters
I find this hard to believe.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:34 am to BamaGradinTn
quote:
My basic point is that this website doesn't allow for changing the demographics on a state by state basis.
It absolutely does do this. Look at the feature that says which states flipped.
Make the black vote go 30% more GOP than it was previously and VA goes blue while NH doesn’t. On the surface that doesn’t make sense cause VA was far more blue than NH in 2016. The reason the site makes VA red and NH not red is Virginia has a moderate sized black population and NH has virtually no black population.
Obviously I’m not predicting that type of shift but the site absolutely is considering the different demographic percentages of a state.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:45 am to George Dickel
quote:
Speaking of Telemundo.... wonder how they were able to translate that crazy debate from English to Spanish. That would have been interesting to watch.
Like watching those football highlights in Spanish
I want to see the sign language interpreter too
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:45 am to greygoose
quote:well I only personally knew 3 to begin with a 2 have died of old age. So.
Do you honestly know ANYONE who voted for Trump in 2016, that is voting for Biden in 2020?
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:47 am to FlexDawg
Trump is not going to win no matter how many votes he gets. This is a takeover of our government going on by Washington insiders. Civil war is all that will save this nation. If you are not buying gums and ammo you are an idiot.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:50 am to ValDawgsta
quote:
My basic point is that this website doesn't allow for changing the demographics on a state by state basis.
It absolutely does do this. Look at the feature that says which states flipped.
Make the black vote go 30% more GOP than it was previously and VA goes blue while NH doesn’t. On the surface that doesn’t make sense cause VA was far more blue than NH in 2016. The reason the site makes VA red and NH not red is Virginia has a moderate sized black population and NH has virtually no black population.
Obviously I’m not predicting that type of shift but the site absolutely is considering the different demographic percentages of a state.
That may be true, but if his percentage of a demographic goes up because more voters stay home, that doesn't necessarily help him. 15% of one million isn't better than 10% of two million.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:51 am to SDVTiger
quote:
My prediction is Trump takes HI and NY
He will win Cali on election night but then the mail in starts
A Republican candidate will not win any of those states in the foreseeable future.
Posted on 10/1/20 at 9:52 am to FlexDawg
Hispanic here,
HAIL TRUMP
HAIL TRUMP
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