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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 11/9/24 at 10:50 am to David_DJS
quote:
Here's the problem.
It does create an even larger hurdle to clear. If the outstanding vote holds the 60/37.5 trend then the breakdown is
Gallego 72,600
Lake 48,400 (-24,200)
Early vote favored Gallego by quite a lot 205,058 to 111,065. Day of favored Lake slightly 36,513 to 30,932.
So then the question is whether those 120,000 votes are early or day of. Early votes get counted first but you can drop off your early vote on election day so I'm not sure what the breakdown of that will be.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 10:52 am to JoeHackett
quote:
Early votes get counted first but you can drop off your early vote on election day so I'm not sure what the breakdown of that will be.
Day of dropoffs should trend Red, as they're the guys that don't trust the drop boxes or USPS.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 10:58 am to John Barron
I wonder if Arizonans would have voted differently if they knew that voting for Lake meant that their Senator would be in the majority side of the Senate.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 11:01 am to David_DJS
quote:
Day of dropoffs should trend Red, as they're the guys that don't trust the drop boxes or USPS.
That's definitely true.
Pima does provide some updates on early vote processing.
LINK
It looks like as of yesterday they were just starting to count early votes received on 11/4. So it doesn't even seem that they've gotten to election day drop off votes. That might be a positive sign.
Now that I look at it maybe they only received about 9,000 early votes on election day. Who tf knows.
This post was edited on 11/9/24 at 11:05 am
Posted on 11/9/24 at 11:02 am to David_DJS
AZ may be 35% GOP but however many there are most of them wanted Lake to be the nominee.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 11:04 am to David_DJS
quote:
You understand that I can think Kari Lake is a bad candidate - as in she's not good at it - and also be 100% onboard with her politically and vote to put her in office, right?
of course I understand that - it is my touchstone for my entire life when it comes to voting. === I always vote for the LEAST EVIL choice. and by evil I mean in political terms not religious terms.
I make decisions during primaries as to whom should be 'our' candidate with the best chance of defeating the DEMs. When the general election comes around, I vote for the one that would cause the LEAST BAD RESULTs for the country.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 11:09 am to David_DJS
quote:
You're asking an empty question.
Outside of the Left, nobody hates Kari Lake.
I only ask this on this board when someone who purports to be conservative comes out with the 'hate Lake' bullshite. I don't even respond to the obvious DEM trolls.
I could be mistaken in some of my alignment determinations in that decision tho.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 11:49 am to ChineseBandit58
quote:
I only ask this on this board when someone who purports to be conservative comes out with the 'hate Lake' bullshite. I don't even respond to the obvious DEM trolls. I could be mistaken in some of my alignment determinations in that decision tho.
Understood.
I wouldn’t call what you see in these threads “Lake hate” - it’s more frustration with her and a simple acknowledgment that, at least in 20222 (fingers crossed for ‘24), she lost an achingly winnable election.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 11:52 am to David_DJS
Latest Maricopa drop (15K ballots) was not good for Lake, she lost those by about 1.5K votes. Ugh!
Posted on 11/9/24 at 11:57 am to David_DJS
quote:
Understood.
I wouldn’t call what you see in these threads “Lake hate” - it’s more frustration with her and a simple acknowledgment that, at least in 20222 (fingers crossed for ‘24), she lost an achingly winnable election.
I think people underestimate how many messed up DEMs moved here from Cali in the past 10 years. It's not going to be easy for Rs to win ever again unless a bunch of money is spent and a good ground game is established.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 12:02 pm to AZHorn
Posted on 11/9/24 at 12:07 pm to David_DJS
quote:
I will acknowledge you can't run a retard and win elections in AZ. The Left learned this on a national scale last Tuesday.
Dude, just STFU, Katie Hobbs proves you are a dumbass for posting that!
Posted on 11/9/24 at 12:09 pm to ABearsFanNMS
33k is a huge deficit.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 12:12 pm to ABearsFanNMS
quote:
Dude, just STFU, Katie Hobbs proves you are a dumbass for posting that!
I’m spot on. Katie Hobbs is retarded, but not retarded enough to not “let Kari make the election about Kari Lake”.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 12:12 pm to John Barron
Just posting the last four spreads from my calculator:
Posted on 11/9/24 at 12:14 pm to AZHorn
quote:
I think people underestimate how many messed up DEMs moved here from Cali in the past 10 years. It's not going to be easy for Rs to win ever again unless a bunch of money is spent and a good ground game is established.
Trump is up by 5 or 6 isn't he?
Don't use Lake as a barometer.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 12:14 pm to GumboPot
The people of AZ are apparently a bunch of retards.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 12:15 pm to AZHorn
quote:
think people underestimate how many messed up DEMs moved here from Cali in the past 10 years. It's not going to be easy for Rs to win ever again unless a bunch of money is spent and a good ground game is established.
Dems have never made up less of the electorate in AZ as the do now since I moved here in 1985.
The AZ is turning blue thing is nonsense. In fact, AZ was fare more blue (or at least purple) a few decades ago.
Posted on 11/9/24 at 12:20 pm to David_DJS
quote:
The AZ is turning blue thing is nonsense.
Maybe not. According to the Pew Research Center it's 40% R, 39% D and 21% indies.
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