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re: Reuters: Special Forces operation is underway to seize Russian tanker
Posted on 1/7/26 at 10:01 am to VolInBavaria
Posted on 1/7/26 at 10:01 am to VolInBavaria
Even this excerpt is a long read, but it goes into the questions around the Bella1/Marinera, and why none of this makes sense.
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XI. Conclusion
The pursuit of the Marinera has been framed as a story about sanctions evasion, shadow fleets, and flag manipulation. That narrative explains the mechanics. It does not explain the behavior.
The early U.S. intervention, the willingness to interdict before any cargo was loaded, and Russia’s decision to burn deniability and step forward all point in the same direction. This was not treated as a routine shipping problem. It was treated as a mission problem.
Materiel may have been part of the equation, but it does not explain the scale of response. High-value personnel and intelligence capability do. The most plausible explanation is that this vessel was tied to the movement or deployment of Russian or Iranian advisers, ISR assets, or both, and that the loss or exposure of those assets was unacceptable to Moscow and Tehran alike.
That framing also constrains the endgame. A vessel operating under Russian protection cannot realistically run the Baltic without threading NATO chokepoints, and it cannot transit the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf without passing through continuous U.S. and allied maritime presence. If recovery is the objective and escalation is to be contained, the available lanes narrow quickly. The logic points north, under escort, toward the Barents Sea and a Northern Fleet port.
In that context, the early staging of U.S. aviation assets in the United Kingdom takes on a different meaning. That is not a posture built around paperwork and hull seizures. It is a posture built around access, reach, and time. Rotary-wing assets and special mission aircraft are not forward-positioned to observe a ship. They are forward-positioned when people or sensitive capability may need to be denied, recovered, or intercepted before the window closes. Once a vessel moves into the Norwegian Sea and toward Russian air cover, those options begin to disappear.
If the Marinera ultimately emerges under Russian naval escort and proceeds to Murmansk or a related Arctic facility, it will not be incidental. It will be a tell. Commercial ships do not accept that routing. Operational recoveries do.
That does not prove what was aboard. It does, however, make clear what mattered.
0
Posted on 1/7/26 at 10:11 am to roadGator
quote:Never go Roger it usually doesn't end well.
Congrats on being sane.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 10:15 am to SouthernHog
I'm not very clear on any of this with tankers. Where are they departing? Where are they going? What are they carrying to and fro? What's their freight hauling history? Why are they reflagging? Who controls them? Are they corporate or state controlled? Is this triggered by the events in Venezuela, or completely separate?
I assume it's part of the trend of crumbling geopolitics and that's not a surprise. It's been coming for decades. Just wondering whose ox is being most proximally gored today.
I assume it's part of the trend of crumbling geopolitics and that's not a surprise. It's been coming for decades. Just wondering whose ox is being most proximally gored today.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 10:21 am to VolInBavaria
But Trump is Putins puppet. Putin must have given his okay for Trump do this, right?
Posted on 1/7/26 at 10:24 am to VolInBavaria
Haven’t read thread so not sure if posted yet but there is additional context.
Ship left Iran heading to VZ. Turned around and changed flag registration to Russian. Statted running back to Russia.
Highly doubt there is oil on that boat.
Ship left Iran heading to VZ. Turned around and changed flag registration to Russian. Statted running back to Russia.
Highly doubt there is oil on that boat.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 10:37 am to La Place Mike
quote:
But Trump is Putins puppet. Putin must have given his okay for Trump do this, right?
Chinese checkers
Posted on 1/7/26 at 10:42 am to IvoryBillMatt
quote:
I know waiting for information to form an opinion about something is funny to you. That's why you come across as stupid sometimes.
You are very stupid. You claim to know nothing then say 100% there is no chemicals to make fent in those barrels
Posted on 1/7/26 at 10:48 am to Jbird
What’s the Roger reference?
I believe you are sane and said as much.
I believe you are sane and said as much.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 11:01 am to roadGator
quote:I think he melted completely down the other day.
What’s the Roger reference?
Posted on 1/7/26 at 11:25 am to SDVTiger
quote:
You are very stupid. You claim to know nothing then say 100% there is no chemicals to make fent in those barrels
Posted on 1/7/26 at 11:32 am to Jbird
Ah ha. I missed that.
He MoT’d.
He MoT’d.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 11:56 am to msutiger
quote:
Not a fan of this international aggression with the position we find ourselves in domestically. It isn't winning if we cant clean up our own streets.
What if I were to tell you that it’s all connected and part of a bigger picture
Posted on 1/7/26 at 12:04 pm to VolInBavaria
Posted on 1/7/26 at 12:12 pm to IvoryBillMatt
Lets not be naive to the fact that he was pushing cocaine up into the United States, Also selling sanctioned oil to China on tankers with Panamanian flags.
Posted on 1/7/26 at 12:13 pm to VolInBavaria
OSINT has a severe case of TDS
Posted on 1/7/26 at 12:20 pm to VolInBavaria
FINALLY
Posted on 1/7/26 at 12:25 pm to Leopold
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