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re: Trafalgar has Biden +2 in PA
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:06 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:06 pm to buckeye_vol
That map with 270 is a spicy meatball.
I can see that happening
I can see that happening
0
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:08 pm to buckeye_vol
The intangible of polling is enthusiasm and the aforementioned vote "for" and "against."
In every poll, Biden is well below 50% in his voters saying they are enthusiastic about voting for him. If even 1 out of 10 of the "unenthusiastic" do not go out and vote (a realistic number IMO, given the overall apathy by a very large number of people in the US), that knocks 5% off his polling, even from people who may be considered "likely" voters.
It is EXTREMELY difficult to win a "vote against" campaign... add in the enthusiasm gap and I doubt any polls are going to get it "right" this election.
In every poll, Biden is well below 50% in his voters saying they are enthusiastic about voting for him. If even 1 out of 10 of the "unenthusiastic" do not go out and vote (a realistic number IMO, given the overall apathy by a very large number of people in the US), that knocks 5% off his polling, even from people who may be considered "likely" voters.
It is EXTREMELY difficult to win a "vote against" campaign... add in the enthusiasm gap and I doubt any polls are going to get it "right" this election.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:09 pm to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
They are very energized to vote trump out.
They're so energized that GOP voter enthusiasm is +9-+11 over Dem voter enthusiasm.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:11 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
buckeye_vol
All that is irrelevant.
The Democrats, if in total control of government, WILL pass a complete amnesty bill.
Once that's done, it won't matter if you like the Dem candidate in the future, that's the one you're getting.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 11:45 pm to BayBengal9
quote:Pew just completed a poll that looks at this and all sorts of characteristics.
In every poll, Biden is well below 50% in his voters saying they are enthusiastic about voting for him.
They found Biden with 52% support, and 30 of the 52 percent (or 59%) strongly supported him. On the other hand, Trump had 42% and although 28 of the 42 percent who said they strong support him (66%) is a greater share of that support, it represent a net difference of 2% on strong support alone.
Furthermore, 89% of Biden supporters reported that they were certain to support him and 6% said they may change their mind. On the other hand, 87% of Trump supporters reported that they were certain that they would support him by 7% may change their mind.
In fact, Pew breaks down the support (more precise percentages) and trends in more detail. In August, Biden's breakdown of strongly support/moderately support/lean, was 46/43/11 but in October that was 57/38/5. On the other hand, Trump went from 66/23/11 to 68/26/6. So Biden closed the gap of strongly support from -20 in August to -11 in October, and gained an advantage in that there are fewer leaners (5 vs. 6 percent).
In addition, on a question regarding whether supporters are voting for the candidate or voting against the candidate, Biden supporters were 33% for him and 67% against Trump in June and 36% for and 63% against. Trump supporters trended the other way (76/24 for/against in June to 71/29 in October).
So while Trump supporters definitely are more enthusiastic about supporting Trump, Biden has closed the GAP, and has advantages in more certainty of support, less likely to change support, and fewer leaners. Most importantly, he has a 10 point advantage in that poll, so even if the enthusiasm gaps tighen the polls, Biden would still have a healthy lead.
quote:This is just pure conjecture, especially because this election is so much different than most (historically unfavorable incumbent, pandemic, recession, etc.).
It is EXTREMELY difficult to win a "vote against" campaign
Furthermore, when you supplement enthusiasm for and against WITH favorability data, and then compare it all to 2016, it becomes even more likely that this "vote against" campaign will work. For example, few people were ENTHUSIASTIC about Hillary in 2016, and many more PEOPLE absolutely despised her. She had the 2nd worse favorability ratings in tracking history (only behind Trump), was the known entity more akin to an incumbent administration people were ready to move on from (it was a referendum on her), and she still barely lost. On the other hand, Biden actually has a net positive favorability and is tracking well ahead of Hillary in the polls, plus the referendum is on Trump this time. So it's a lot easier to vote against a candidate WHEN the alternative is relatively well-liked overall, and at least an acceptable alternative. If people despised him like Hillary, a far less acceptable alternative, his chances would probably be far less than they are now (and would be reflected in the polling).
And just personally (N = 1), my choice to vote for Biden is like 5% for Biden and 95% percent against Trump, whereas I was more likey 40/60 when I voted for Bush and McCain and 60/40 when I voted for Romney. Yet, I've never been more motivated to vote than this election.
And to extend it to my immediate family, in 2016 neither my wife (one of the most apolitical people I know) nor I (neo-liberal/libertarian leaning) voted, my brother chose Jill Stein (I don't get that, but he's probably the furthest left in the family especially as he was only 21 at that time), and my parents chose Trump. So Trump had a +2 vote advantage. This year, my wife, brother, and I will all be voting for Biden while my parents will still be voting for a Trump, so Trump has a -1 vote advantage.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 11:49 pm to BayBengal9
quote:They didn't pass one with Obama in office, despite a filibuster-proof majority in the senate, and a larger advantage in the house.
The Democrats, if in total control of government, WILL pass a complete amnesty bill.
Even if they gain control of the Senate, it will be a small majority, and there are enough Ds in purple and red states (Manchin) where their support is not a given.
Regardless, it's not like what we've done over the last few decades regarding immigration has been anything but ineffective if not terrible, so I'm not sure amnesty would be any worse, if not better, depending on the details.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 12:07 am to BayBengal9
quote:To add more data to this argument, the recent NYT/Sienna polls of Michigan and Wisconsin asked respondents whether they already voted and for those who haven't, their likelihood of voting on a 5 point likert-like scale from not at all likely to almost certain.
The intangible of polling is enthusiasm and the aforementioned vote "for" and "against."
If you combine the already voted (100% certainty, with almost certain) the Ds had a 77-74 advantage in Michigan (+10 advantage in already voted) and an 80 to 71 advantage in Wisconsin (+20 advantage in already voted).
And if we assign a likelihood to these answers with 100% to already voted, 90% to almost certain, 70% for very likely, 50% for somewhat likely, 30% for not very likely, and 10% for not likely at all, Ds have a 88.3 to 84.5 advantage in Wisconsin and an 85.4 to 85.1 advantage in Michigan.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 12:07 am to BayBengal9
Double-post.
This post was edited on 10/14/20 at 12:07 am
Posted on 10/14/20 at 12:17 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
But by all means let's pretend that the Ds are the only ones who are divisive
Who has to pretend?
Posted on 10/14/20 at 12:18 am to buckeye_vol
Completely an ancedote on my part but here it goes...
We visit my parents the same weekend (this last) every year back outside St. Louis, but in a pretty Red area. 4 years ago I didn't see one Clinton yard sign, but this last weekend we saw a significant number of Biden signs. No where near 50/50, but a definite 25-30% of the signs in their immediate suburban area.
Now the President has no worries about Missouri, but I did think it was odd.
We visit my parents the same weekend (this last) every year back outside St. Louis, but in a pretty Red area. 4 years ago I didn't see one Clinton yard sign, but this last weekend we saw a significant number of Biden signs. No where near 50/50, but a definite 25-30% of the signs in their immediate suburban area.
Now the President has no worries about Missouri, but I did think it was odd.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 12:18 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
They didn't pass one with Obama in office, despite a filibuster-proof majority in the senate, and a larger advantage in the house.
They used their political equity to frick up the healthcare system
Posted on 10/14/20 at 12:23 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
This year, my wife, brother, and I will all be voting for Biden while my parents will still be voting for a Trump
How did smart people produce such dumbasses.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 12:27 am to buckeye_vol
Buckeye, when did you make the decision to vote for biden?
Just curious.
Also, i think you are wayyyy too optimistic that Biden won’t be able to get through policy you disagree with if he wins.
Just curious.
Also, i think you are wayyyy too optimistic that Biden won’t be able to get through policy you disagree with if he wins.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 1:00 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:I started really learning that way when I was freaking out over the possibility of Bernie (or Warren even though she was a long shot) winning the D nomination where I may have been forced to vote for Trump to vote against Bernie/Warren. So facing that, I was like as long as it was one of those more moderate (Biden, Kloubachar) candidate wins, voting for one of them seemed a lot more acceptable.
Buckeye, when did you make the decision to vote for biden?
And then the pandemic hit and with less to do, I started following a bunch of economists, data scientists, finance experts, legal scholars, as well as libertarian/neo-libertarian scholars (at Cato) and writers (at reason and other outlets). And I realized that there were actually people out there who aligned with my views, and not only that, were experts in areas that showed how bad some of Trump's policies were, and were more in the same boat of leaning towards Biden.
And finally just Trump's leadership, at the very basic level throughout the pandemic and recession put it over the top. And I'm just referring to the basic, low-hanging fruit of "I'm going to be the adult in the room, put aside my petty quarrels even if they continue to attack me, and just show that I care about bringing the country together to fight through this together above all else," and he couldn't even do that. I wasn't surprised, as his fundamental lack of very basic leadership skills i something I've talked about for years to my father r(since he's a trump supporter), but this just showed how lacking they were even when it should have been easier than ever to display them.
quote:Maybe, but I'm most concerned about the far-left's policies, and I really don't think they'll be able to get those through very easily with Biden, especially compared to if Bernie was in charge.
Also, i think you are wayyyy too optimistic that Biden won’t be able to get through policy you disagree with if he wins.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 1:04 am to Turbeauxdog
quote:Sure it was a mess, but they didn't really need to use any "equity," as they didn't need any with that amount of power to push things through, especially since what they were pushing through as at least a broad policy (healthcare reform) wasn't really viewed too unfavorably until it finally got put into action quite a while later.
They used their political equity to frick up the healthcare system
Posted on 10/14/20 at 1:06 am to The Boat
quote:a drunk driver slammed into a restaurant my parents were eating at when my mom was pregnant with me, sending her flying across the table. I think that may have played a part.
How did smart people produce such dumbasses.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 1:13 am to buckeye_vol
You really think biden is going to veto a left wing bill that is produced by a dem congress?
That would make NO political sense for biden. It would destroy him in a midterm because no dems would be enthused to vote for him if he isn’t delivering on stuff.
Also, Biden isn’t running some moderate campaign dude. Pretty sure vox.com concluded it was most progressive platform in decades
Outright bans on semi-auto firearms?
Seeking to ban charter schools?
Corporate income tax increases?
National law that bans independent contracting?
None of this seems moderate to me.
Biden is a generic democrat. He’s not going to be the neoliberal person you think he will.
Higher taxes, more regulations, more govt programs, agencies led by progressives, etc.
If biden wins, it likely means the senate is also dem. If that’s the case, nothing will stop the left.
Absolutely no way an assault weapons ban, at the very least, isn’t easily passed for example.
Or more Obamacare subsidies.
That would make NO political sense for biden. It would destroy him in a midterm because no dems would be enthused to vote for him if he isn’t delivering on stuff.
Also, Biden isn’t running some moderate campaign dude. Pretty sure vox.com concluded it was most progressive platform in decades
Outright bans on semi-auto firearms?
Seeking to ban charter schools?
Corporate income tax increases?
National law that bans independent contracting?
None of this seems moderate to me.
Biden is a generic democrat. He’s not going to be the neoliberal person you think he will.
Higher taxes, more regulations, more govt programs, agencies led by progressives, etc.
If biden wins, it likely means the senate is also dem. If that’s the case, nothing will stop the left.
Absolutely no way an assault weapons ban, at the very least, isn’t easily passed for example.
Or more Obamacare subsidies.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 1:22 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Solid post, mate 
Posted on 10/14/20 at 1:25 am to StopRobot
quote:
OH, NC, AZ, FL to win. All states he is behind in
You truly believe these polls don't you?
Trump won Ohio by 9% in 2016. It's not even a toss up anymore. Sane with NC
it's FL, AZ, NC, ME2(trump won by 10%), and anything else.
Posted on 10/14/20 at 1:31 am to buckeye_vol
quote:nonsense. Liberals in Congress always vote in lock step on big issues. How do people not know this all they need is 51 senators (or 50 plus VP) and they will pass anything they want
Even if they gain control of the Senate, it will be a small majority, and there are enough Ds in purple and red states (Manchin) where their support is not a given.
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