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re: Update: Situation in Iran thread
Posted on 1/30/26 at 5:23 pm to Pragmatist2025
Posted on 1/30/26 at 5:23 pm to Pragmatist2025
quote:
What is the SPECIFIC reason?
The middle east and free world is better off with the Iranian islamists gone.
This is an opportunity to make a decapitation strike. It will only be air and naval strikes though. No boots are going into Iran.
Biggest threat IMO is ballistic missiles hitting civilians and our troops. That's about it though. They are finished.
1
Posted on 1/30/26 at 5:26 pm to Pragmatist2025
quote:
6 weeks ago there was hardly a peep concerning Iran. 4 weeks ago the White House received a certain visitor and all of the sudden, Iran was once again an imminent threat.
The change in Iran occurred because bazaar shop owners are protesting this time. It's not like massive protests haven't happened before.
We don't have to actually invade to topple the 47 years of Death to America regime. We just have to weaken it enough.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 5:29 pm to WeeWee
We've seen how these are all substandard in Ukraine.
Whoop ti do.
Whoop ti do.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 5:32 pm to Pragmatist2025
Bazar shop owners started the protests because of rapid monetary issues, leaving their currency worthless.
When the riots grew, because of economic collapse, the idiots in the regime told their henchmen to open fire and killed thousands.
Then you have mercs from Iraq and Afghanistan entering the country and doing more of the same
Their economy is gone. One way or another, it's over for the regime.
Inserting ourselves into the situation is opportunistic, for sure, but they haven't done themselves any favors drying to quel the population. Most killings by far, the regime has ever carried out. So they'll be removed
When the riots grew, because of economic collapse, the idiots in the regime told their henchmen to open fire and killed thousands.
Then you have mercs from Iraq and Afghanistan entering the country and doing more of the same
Their economy is gone. One way or another, it's over for the regime.
Inserting ourselves into the situation is opportunistic, for sure, but they haven't done themselves any favors drying to quel the population. Most killings by far, the regime has ever carried out. So they'll be removed
Posted on 1/30/26 at 5:38 pm to udtiger
quote:again the US and Brits created this shite storm in Iran with our puppet regimes and not quelling the radical take over.
quote:
or the more likely scenario of a massive and forceful crackdown
Tianemen Square 1989
We owe them a shot at freedom.
American's should take not of what radical leftists can do to a country.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 5:40 pm to jcaz
quote:World was a much safer place prior to November of 79. The fact that the Carter administration saw that coming and did nothing - is perhaps one of America's what ifs.
The middle east and free world is better off with the Iranian islamists gone.
This is an opportunity to make a decapitation strike. It will only be air and naval strikes though. No boots are going into Iran.
Biggest threat IMO is ballistic missiles hitting civilians and our troops. That's about it though. They are finished.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 6:20 pm to Bronco11
quote:Thanks for responding as well as the others who have.
Their economy is gone. One way or another, it's over for the regime
In my opinion the outset of this situation seems less than organic but it can’t be put back in the bottle. The phrase ‘no boots on the ground’ seems like the new justification for military actions abroad, minus the word ‘war’, as the general public has no stomach for it considering the last 20 years.
Precise strikes and decapitation sound like hubris considering the volatility of what follows. Anecdotal stories of the populace waiting for freedom from the Western deliverers don’t take into account that all 90M people may not feel this way.
Their economic ruin and lives of poverty are in no small part due to Western imposed sanctions. Sanctions destroy the lives of the citizens, not the rulers. There is a MUCH greater chance of prolonged civil war than there is an actual functioning government united under the banner of a benevolent leader.
Our military might is unmatched but all the bombs in the world can’t impose our values and ideas on a country whose citizens only have a vague memory of such. Collateral damage will likely just refocus their hatred.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 6:39 pm to hawgfaninc
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If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
This is real escalation.
The US is deliberately walking Iran into a narrowing corridor where every move degrades them and every pause weakens them. The warning during naval exercises is about locking in a narrative of inevitability and control before anything irreversible happens.
What you are watching is coercive sequencing in its late phase.
First came economic suffocation. The rial collapse is not incidental. It is the pressure point. When a currency breaks this hard, regimes stop thinking strategically and start thinking about survival.
Then came political isolation. EU moving on IRGC designation matters less for legal effect and more for moral permission. It tells the system that Iran is now categorized as an outlaw structure, not a negotiating partner.
Then came military positioning. Carrier groups. Surveillance assets. Public leaks about strike options and commando raids. These are not leaks by accident. They are signals injected into Iran’s decision loop to create internal fear and disagreement.
Now comes formal warning language. Once you issue a notice like this, you are no longer managing risk. You are shaping blame. You are deciding in advance who owns the next escalation.
The US assessment is that Iran is already strategically broken but still tactically dangerous. The regime cannot reform. It cannot stabilize the economy. It cannot de escalate without looking weak. It cannot escalate without risking destruction.
That is a trap.
The US does not need Iran to fire first. It needs Iran to miscalculate once. One drone too close. One flyover. One naval harassment incident.
That becomes the switch that justifies kinetic action already planned and already sold internally.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 6:50 pm to hawgfaninc
In other words, if Iran doesn’t cease FA they will FO.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 6:55 pm to Pragmatist2025
It isn't Libya. Yes, there will be fighting for a time after it gets going on the ground.
Those wanting the regime gone out number the regime supporters 100-1. The propaganda pumped out of tehran for the "counter protest" are the islamists and those that stand to lose a lot if the regime falls.
Defections have already occured. Once the bombs start hitting targets, you'll see a lot of abandonment from troops. Only the hardcore believers will be left.
The big question, how and who do you arm among the citizenry.
Nobody can possibly predict what happens once the rules are gone. Doubt the prince steps foot in the country before the big clashes are over. That may cause some resentment and there are multiple organizations within the country that want control. Will Mossad and CIA have a big part to say in that? Likely
Those wanting the regime gone out number the regime supporters 100-1. The propaganda pumped out of tehran for the "counter protest" are the islamists and those that stand to lose a lot if the regime falls.
Defections have already occured. Once the bombs start hitting targets, you'll see a lot of abandonment from troops. Only the hardcore believers will be left.
The big question, how and who do you arm among the citizenry.
Nobody can possibly predict what happens once the rules are gone. Doubt the prince steps foot in the country before the big clashes are over. That may cause some resentment and there are multiple organizations within the country that want control. Will Mossad and CIA have a big part to say in that? Likely
Posted on 1/30/26 at 7:01 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 1/30/26 at 7:19 pm to hawgfaninc
Nuking may be a bit extreme if we can accomplish the same with air strikes. Don’t want nuclear fallout killing innocent civilians and keeping us from getting the oil.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 7:29 pm to hawgfaninc
quote:
Fwiw
Israel won't nuke first for that guys reason. It would needlessly open the door to some crazies to nuke Israel.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 7:41 pm to Smoky Mountain Reign
quote:
Skin that smoke wagon and see what happens…..
I'm gettin' awful tired of your gas. Now jerk that pistol and go to work.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 7:45 pm to WeeWee
That guy is what all democrats hope to be one day.
Posted on 1/30/26 at 7:56 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 1/30/26 at 8:00 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 1/30/26 at 8:01 pm to hawgfaninc
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/30/26 at 11:04 pm
Posted on 1/30/26 at 8:15 pm to hawgfaninc
I'm sure it may have already been explained somewhere, but what made Iran's economy go in the trash these last few months to incite all the initial protests?
Posted on 1/30/26 at 8:19 pm to hawgfaninc
Saudis won’t say it publicly but they would love for the U.S. to end the mullahs.
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