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re: Update: Situation in Iran thread
Posted on 1/15/26 at 5:18 pm to uziyourillusion
Posted on 1/15/26 at 5:18 pm to uziyourillusion
quote:
Nothing but verbal slop from grok.
So don’t read it and move on.
I’m sure your assumption is right
This post was edited on 1/15/26 at 5:19 pm
1
Posted on 1/15/26 at 5:27 pm to uziyourillusion
quote:
Trump drew a red line at a point Iran had already crossed and he chickened out on his threats to do anything about it.
‘Daddy Trump doesn’t have as much intel as I do & he didn’t act exactly when I wanted him to so now he’s a chicken!’
Posted on 1/15/26 at 5:34 pm to Slippy
One carrier strike groups moved. The other is still moving from South China Sea
Posted on 1/15/26 at 5:41 pm to uziyourillusion
quote:
After they already massacred thousands.
Did you give a shite any of the other thousands of times Iran executed its citizens?
Posted on 1/15/26 at 5:41 pm to hawgfaninc
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. uziyourillusion is smarter than Bill Ackman?? Who knew
Posted on 1/15/26 at 5:53 pm to uziyourillusion
You are playing checkers while Trump plays chess. They are not the same fame.
My guess is you're very young and imagine war as a video game where you can hit reset button if it doesn’t go your way.
I haven’t seen anyone mention US lives. Only Iranian lives. Trump has to make the right decisions because American servicemen are risking their lives to carry out any orders he issues. He is not going to do anything until he knows its the best option and right time to do so.
Trump sure as hell won’t cater to temper tantrums from random posters.
My guess is you're very young and imagine war as a video game where you can hit reset button if it doesn’t go your way.
I haven’t seen anyone mention US lives. Only Iranian lives. Trump has to make the right decisions because American servicemen are risking their lives to carry out any orders he issues. He is not going to do anything until he knows its the best option and right time to do so.
Trump sure as hell won’t cater to temper tantrums from random posters.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 5:54 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 1/15/26 at 6:13 pm to hawgfaninc
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If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
IRAN.
Thousands of Tehran residents flee the capital through the mountains to save their lives.
The Iranians are fighting for their freedom and for the return of Persia's 'Shah' Reza Pahlavi.
Long live free Iran
Without fear and without anger, there will be freedom
Posted on 1/15/26 at 6:21 pm to hawgfaninc
One carrier strike group in position, another arrives in 5 days. So factually incorrect.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 7:13 pm to OU Guy
quote:
I haven’t seen anyone mention US lives. Only Iranian lives. Trump has to make the right decisions because American servicemen are risking their lives to carry out any orders he issues.
Solid point and post. I was thinking about something similar last night but forgot to mention in all my blabbering.
Can you imagine the anguish and torment the President, military, and family if an American is taken prisoner by the IRGC? I'm hoping if a airman had to bail he might be helped or hidden by sympathetic Iranians. Not counting on it however.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 7:27 pm to Victor R Franko
If the Mullahs remain at the time of the US fleet's arrival, they will be forcibly ousted. I would venture to guess US and Israeli personnel are already inside the borders of Iran - pre-staging strikes...that probe last night was quite revealing
Posted on 1/15/26 at 7:34 pm to CitizenK
quote:
One carrier strike group in position
Which one?
The USS Roosevelt, Mitscher, and Mcfaul are destroyers.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 7:41 pm to wfallstiger
quote:
If the Mullahs remain at the time of the US fleet's arrival, they will be forcibly ousted
That would be my timeline. You have until the arrival of the US fleet to relinquish power and leave the country. Beyond that your safety will not be guaranteed
Posted on 1/15/26 at 7:45 pm to beerJeep
quote:
The USS Roosevelt, Mitscher, and Mcfaul are destroyers.
My error, I was thinking that the Roosevelt was a carrier
Posted on 1/15/26 at 7:46 pm to beerJeep
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There are not enough assets in the Middle East to execute a sustained campaign that will accomplish anything of huge consequence in Iran. This was never a question.
Yes, the limited U.S. tactical airpower in the region can do some damage, but you need a complete, fully packaged force in order to really get in there and make a big dent. This requires a huge array of capabilities (see what one major night over Venezuela took) to cover contingencies etc. Even TLAMs are limited in the region, with just three destroyers there and possibly a submarine. Yes, bombers flying global airpower missions could play a significant role, B-52s and B-1s with JASSMs and B-2s could potentially go after hardened regime targets, possibly to decapitate the regime, but those sorties would be very low in number. And if a decapitation strike wasn't successful then what? Huge contingencies need to be in place for what could come after.
Above all that, there is not enough capability to robustly deal with the aftermath of U.S. strikes, which could include massive barrages of short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones. These systems were left far more intact after the war with Israel as they did not threaten Israel. This continues to be a reality many do not realize. Additional ground based air defenses and fighters would be needed to deal with a major response, as well as naval assets.
Bottom line here is all this takes time to move and get into place in preparation for something like this. Just in order to mount a major defense, not an offensive operation, it requires a lot of movements. We saw absolutely no movements that indicated such a force was being deployed. We still don't see those indications. So if an attack was slated to occur, it would have been very limited in nature and would have likely left Iran in a place to respond massively, which we are not ideally prepared for.
quote:
Is there room for a very surgical operation likely focused on the regime's upper echelons, yes, but even then, you need contingencies and capabilities in place if things don't go right. Very much balancing the risk vs reward.
quote:
Taking out some targets using cruise missiles/standoff weapons etc. is certainly doable, but what do you achieve and at what potential cost from a retaliation? What does it actually achieve in real terms on the ground?
Posted on 1/15/26 at 7:48 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 1/15/26 at 7:55 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Above all that, there is not enough capability to robustly deal with the aftermath of U.S. strikes, which could include massive barrages of short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones. These systems were left far more intact after the war with Israel as they did not threaten Israel. This continues to be a reality many do not realize. Additional ground based air defenses and fighters would be needed to deal with a major response, as well as naval assets.
Remember the airbase we had in Afghanistan that the previous admin abandoned with billions of dollars of tech? Sure would come in handy right about now wouldn’t it?
Posted on 1/15/26 at 8:00 pm to Blizzard of Chizz
The Democratic Party has a plethora of misfires in that region....have grown up watching them, starting with Mr Peanut Head
Posted on 1/15/26 at 8:24 pm to wfallstiger
quote:
The Democratic Party has a plethora of misfires in that region....have grown up watching them, starting with Mr Peanut Head
My mother who still had the post Civil War mentality to only vote Dem, whispered to me in her kitchen that she had voted for Reagan because Carter was SOOOOOOOO dumb.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 8:26 pm to Blizzard of Chizz
The airbase was lost before Biden came into office. 3,000 troops left in Kabul isn’t enough to secure Bagram airbase from the Taliban. Trump already signed surrender terms with them which required a full US withdrawal.
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