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re: What states did Trump win that may flip?
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:41 pm to bhtigerfan
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:41 pm to bhtigerfan
I would add New Hampshire as a Trump win.
0
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:42 pm to LSUGrrrl
If the GOP loses Florida in 2020 they are done as a party
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:43 pm to bhtigerfan
It's all the DC govt. worker spillover from the time of the Obama administration. The number of govt. employees plus non-govt. parasites (read Democrat) exploded and corrupted a couple of highly populated counties in northern Virginia.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:45 pm to LSUSkip
quote:
isn't CA placing all of their electoral votes with the winner of the popular vote?
They're only doing that if enough states join them to give them a majority of electoral votes. So far, not enough have. They're all blue states so I was interested to see how quickly they did an about face when a Republican won
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:48 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
NM is gone.
I don't really know much about New Mexico's politics (I guess really New Mexico in general). What makes it so far gone blue? Demographics?
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:49 pm to jchamil
quote:
I don't really know much about New Mexico's politics (I guess really New Mexico in general). What makes it so far gone blue? Demographics?
Whites are a minority in NM and there is a lot of poor people there.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:52 pm to jchamil
quote:Yes. Lots of poor Hispanics on the Democratic dole.
I don't really know much about New Mexico's politics (I guess really New Mexico in general). What makes it so far gone blue? Demographics?
Posted on 9/11/20 at 2:58 pm to bhtigerfan
May lose Michigan adds NH
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:06 pm to MurraytheDivot
quote:
If the GOP loses Florida in 2020 they are done as a party
Trump isn’t losing Florida.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:12 pm to LSUGrrrl
The rust belt as a whole is shifting more red.
North Carolina worries me, I live not too far from the state line and as you drive into the state you see a ton of Biden yard signs.
States I think could possibly flip for trump are: Minnesota and possibly Nevada.
Biden flips I think might be Michigan and Arizona.
North Carolina worries me, I live not too far from the state line and as you drive into the state you see a ton of Biden yard signs.
States I think could possibly flip for trump are: Minnesota and possibly Nevada.
Biden flips I think might be Michigan and Arizona.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:16 pm to bhtigerfan
Trafalgar hasn’t shown me one State he won that he is losing in so I don’t think that’s happening. They were the only ones to get the electoral map ring in 2016.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:17 pm to FlexDawg
quote:This is encouraging.
Trafalgar hasn’t shown me one State he won that he is losing in so I don’t think that’s happening. They were the only ones to get the electoral map ring in 2016.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:50 pm to jchamil
quote:
don't really know much about New Mexico's politics (I guess really New Mexico in general). What makes it so far gone blue? Demographics?
There are some key differences between NM Hispanic voting and TX Hispanic voting trends.
For example, “the share of the electorate with a Spanish surname [in Texas] increased from 17.2 percent in 2012 to 19.4 percent in 2016. Latinos make up 38 percent of the Texas population, but historically vote at lower rates than Latinos in other states and other groups in Texas.“
This is the reason people saying that Texas will turn blue are wrong. Latinos make up 38% of Texas population but, in their highest turnout year (2016), only 19.4% of the Latino population actually voted. LINK
“ Some 28% of Texas eligible voters are Hispanic, the second largest Hispanic statewide eligible voter share nationally. New Mexico ranks first with 40%.”
“Some 46% of Hispanics in Texas are eligible to vote, ranking Texas 23rd nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. By contrast, 79% of the state’s white population is eligible to vote.“
So, while the number of Hispanics in TX continue to rise, less than 1/2 of them are eligible to vote. Also, Hispanics who are eligible to vote in Texas have a larger % who own their homes than the rest of the eligible Hispanic voters nationwide combined.
Pew Research
“Among Hispanics, Biden has a 47.4% to 37.9% advantage, but 13.2% remain undecided.“
“ Naturalized and first-generation Hispanics favored Biden by wider marks, but those whose families had been in the country two or more generations favored the Democrat by a narrow margin of 45% to 44.6%.”
Dallas Morning News
This is likely largely influenced by the success and high home ownership of 2nd+ generation Hispanics in Texas.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:55 pm to LSUGrrrl
Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan WILL flip to Biden.
Pennsylvania, Florida, and NCarolina are 50-50 or better to flip to Biden.
Pennsylvania, Florida, and NCarolina are 50-50 or better to flip to Biden.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 3:58 pm to LSUGrrrl
It's really just the northern half of the state. Santa Fe would be a big spot. Hillary was +65000 votes in 2016. That's why I put it as a possibility, I think it can be done, but for 5 EVs it would have to turn on it's own. Time better spent elsewhere.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:13 pm to bhtigerfan
AZ is not flipping. Put the crack pipes down.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:21 pm to jatilen
quote:
AZ is not flipping. Put the crack pipes down.
I don't understand the logic regarding AZ flipping either. Obama never won the state, and neither did Hillary. I don't see it going blue for Sleepy Joe.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:24 pm to jrodLSUke
quote:
I don't understand the logic regarding AZ flipping either. Obama never won the state, and neither did Hillary. I don't see it going blue for Sleepy Joe.
California transplants + high hispanic population. More and more Californians moving to AZ taking their politics with them
Also the Republicans in Arizona, many of them are of the John McCain/Jeff Flake mold and are Never Trumpers.
Lots of affluent white suburbanites who buy into all the virtue signalling and social justice BS.
Posted on 9/11/20 at 4:37 pm to bhtigerfan
It depends on the margin on election night before mail ins are counted. If he wins by less than 1%, that state will flip because the Dems can manufacture or “find” votes. He needs to be up by a large enough margin that the Dems can’t make up the difference. I hope the Trump campaign is prepared to fight this to the Supreme Court.
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