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TSLA Earnings today
Posted on 7/19/23 at 2:00 pm
Posted on 7/19/23 at 2:00 pm
Anyone playing options on this today?
If so, what is your prediction after the bell?
If so, what is your prediction after the bell?
3
Posted on 7/19/23 at 2:31 pm to jsquardjj
No significant swings. Will continue to moderately appreciate in line with the broader market.
Posted on 7/19/23 at 4:08 pm to jsquardjj
Surprised there wasn’t a bigger sell off, since they had some pretty big misses, especially free cash flow that was $1 billion lower than expected, 50% of the expected $2 billion. And I assume the price cuts were already built into the expectations. I guess it’s just another reason I stay away from Tesla, because while I’m bullish on the company itself, the valuations never make sense to me. Of course, that’s been the case for so long that maybe it’s just always going to be the case. It’s just hard to justify buying something that I don’t understand its price.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 8:07 am to buckeye_vol
I messed up and didn't move some TSLA yesterday 
Posted on 7/20/23 at 9:30 am to buckeye_vol
With Tesla, you buy the vision not the fundamentals of a quarter or even a year. If you believe that Musk can execute the autonomous vehicle vision + licensing of the technology across the industry then that’s the decision. He wants the company to become a razor blade model where he breaks even on the cars and the software becomes the future.
At the core, his vision is a completely different world for how we interact with automobiles. He wants a fleet of robo cars that are revenue generating for those that own it. No longer would 95% of time having the asset sit and do nothing. Instead, it becomes a robo Uber that generates revenue for the owner of the car. It would also mean that majority of people would no longer need to own cars and would access the robo fleet. His biggest selling point on autonomy is going to be safety…and once it is executed proficiently, it will become illegal to drive your own car because autonomous driving will be so much safer than individuals behind the wheel. I expect that’s a difficult vision for most folks that are any older than Gen Z to even really imagine.
Again…that’s my interpretation of his vision for a very different world. The question would be timing…is this 5 years out or 20 years.
At the core, his vision is a completely different world for how we interact with automobiles. He wants a fleet of robo cars that are revenue generating for those that own it. No longer would 95% of time having the asset sit and do nothing. Instead, it becomes a robo Uber that generates revenue for the owner of the car. It would also mean that majority of people would no longer need to own cars and would access the robo fleet. His biggest selling point on autonomy is going to be safety…and once it is executed proficiently, it will become illegal to drive your own car because autonomous driving will be so much safer than individuals behind the wheel. I expect that’s a difficult vision for most folks that are any older than Gen Z to even really imagine.
Again…that’s my interpretation of his vision for a very different world. The question would be timing…is this 5 years out or 20 years.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 11:27 am to lynxcat
quote:
His biggest selling point on autonomy is going to be safety…and once it is executed proficiently, it will become illegal to drive your own car because autonomous driving will be so much safer than individuals behind the wheel. I expect that’s a difficult vision for most folks that are any older than Gen Z to even really imagine.
This version of the future has been highlighted in Sci-fi books and movies going back to the 50’s. It’s not just the Gen Z folks can imagine it, it’s not even their vision. Your example is straight out of the plot line from the movie iRobot from about 20 years ago. Gen Z might be the first generation open to this type of control over their autonomy.
You are right to view Tesla as a tech firm that sells cars rather than the inverse. EV’s even though they are being pushed had by governments, are still a big money loser. Teslas way forward is tech licensing and infrastructure licensing with their Supercharger network.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 3:59 pm to RolltidePA
quote:
This version of the future has been highlighted in Sci-fi books and movies going back to the 50’s. It’s not just the Gen Z folks can imagine it, it’s not even their vision. Your example is straight out of the plot line from the movie iRobot from about 20 years ago. Gen Z might be the first generation open to this type of control over their autonomy.
Call it a “vision” from the 50s but it was never even remotely possible to pursue execution. Technology is now on the cusp of it being feasible and scalable.
Speed of adoption will be interesting. Either slower adoption as younger generations are first movers and older generations die or a legal movement that forces autonomous driving only (as the the faster option but won’t get support from older generations).
Posted on 7/20/23 at 4:17 pm to jsquardjj
Ouch. It's always hindsight is 20/20 but man some puts would have been great on this. Those margins took a hit with the slashed prices. I was thinking the uptick in deliveries would have balanced everything out
Posted on 7/20/23 at 5:04 pm to Sterling Archer
quote:LINK
Demand is really a concern for EV companies today. As the largest manufacturer in the industry, Tesla is the bellwether, and yesterday's results didn't look good. Revenue per vehicle (excluding credits) has dropped 20.4% in the past year to $45,626, and margin per vehicle has dropped 44.3% in the same time frame.
Something to understand about auto plants; They are a HUGE expense and generally are only profitable if running at a fairly high percentage of capacity. I was once told by a GM engineer that if demand warranted a third shift those vehicles were like printing money as the overhead expense was essentially nil.
Tesla has created a lot of capacity that is currently being underutilized. Prices were slashed because they understand they need to utilize that capacity. However, the market for EVs is not growing as fast as capacity has increased which is killing margins.
Tesla is kind of a weird almagation of automaker and tech company. Investors like to act like it's a tech company and then get smacked in the face when the fundamentals of the company are very much like an old school automaker.
This post was edited on 7/20/23 at 5:07 pm
Posted on 7/20/23 at 5:06 pm to Sterling Archer
quote:
Ouch. It's always hindsight is 20/20 but man some puts would have been great on this. Those margins took a hit with the slashed prices. I was thinking the uptick in deliveries would have balanced everything out
I avoided it because the market doesn't treat Tesla like a normal company.
Was positive their numbers wouldn't look great due to the price cuts but had no idea if investors would react accordingly.
Posted on 7/20/23 at 6:15 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
Tesla is kind of a weird almagation of automaker and tech company. Investors like to act like it's a tech company and then get smacked in the face when the fundamentals of the company are very much like an old school automaker.
Frocking thank you! Felt like I was taking crazy pills during the pandemic when Tesla and Rivian were everyone’s favorite stock. There was money to be made but the prices were insane relative to the fact that they are still a car company with a lot of fixed costs and margins that won’t scale
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