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Nate Bronze: The polls were pretty good
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:44 pm
Talk about the biggest Fraud in History. I bet you he WFH 
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Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:45 pm to John Barron
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:45 pm to John Barron
Let's stop giving this grifter the attention
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:47 pm to Midget Death Squad
Nah, I am going to bash his fraud arse just like his sidekick Ann Selzer
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:48 pm to Midget Death Squad
quote:and any others as well like Bill Kristol, Anna Navarro, Bill Maher, Lincoln Project, etc.
Let's stop giving this grifter the attention
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:48 pm to John Barron
“They got it right about how the electorate was changing”
By that I guess what he means is the shift in polling right compared to 2020?
So when they were D+10 in 2020 and ended up D+2, vs 2024 they were D+5 and ended up R+3, that means the polls were right! As long as you assume they are 8 points wrong!
By that I guess what he means is the shift in polling right compared to 2020?
So when they were D+10 in 2020 and ended up D+2, vs 2024 they were D+5 and ended up R+3, that means the polls were right! As long as you assume they are 8 points wrong!
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:49 pm to John Barron
His polls had Kamala as a huge favorite to win the popular vote.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:49 pm to John Barron
But they were pretty good. A lot of national polls had Trump winning.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:50 pm to John Barron
A lot of them were pretty good. They definitely signaled that Trump had closed the gap relative to ‘16 and ‘20. He lost the popular vote in both those elections and narrowly won it this year.
Of course there were some outliers, some out right terds, and some polling companies that weren’t even trying, but all in all they told a story and that story was pretty close to the truth.
Of course there were some outliers, some out right terds, and some polling companies that weren’t even trying, but all in all they told a story and that story was pretty close to the truth.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:51 pm to John Barron
quote:
Nah, I am going to bash his fraud arse just like his sidekick Ann Selzer
This should be his greatest sin
Even his bullshite model had Trump+5-10 or so on probability the week before the election, but he took the Selzer poll so seriously that it made his model shift to Kamala 50.1 to Trump 49.9
Also also, he wrote a whole article about how analyzing early voting patterns is dumb as a response to all the data nerds on Twitter making bold predictions
The guy is colossally wrong and deserves to be ridiculed until he quits
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:52 pm to NawlinsTiger9
I will get you a care package and commissary for the camps.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:52 pm to lsuguy84
Thank you
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:52 pm to John Barron
Negative Ghost-Ridder, that dog don't hunt.
I wrote it about Journalist's last ... but Pollsters also need to be licensed through an organization. Pull their credentials if they are constantly shilling for one side. Most would have had their licenses revoked by now.
I always wonder when I was young how the race could get tighter at the end.
It definitely didn't this last election cycle. Most every polling outfit moved from the left to the right, to say they were accurate.
The recent headlines within 48 hours of the election had Kamala with a 3 point lead.
Then reality hit. That is all.
I wrote it about Journalist's last ... but Pollsters also need to be licensed through an organization. Pull their credentials if they are constantly shilling for one side. Most would have had their licenses revoked by now.
I always wonder when I was young how the race could get tighter at the end.
It definitely didn't this last election cycle. Most every polling outfit moved from the left to the right, to say they were accurate.
The recent headlines within 48 hours of the election had Kamala with a 3 point lead.
Then reality hit. That is all.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:54 pm to John Barron
Nate said it would be a tie, and he said it on election afternoon.
It. Wasn't. A. Tie.
It. Wasn't. A. Tie.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:55 pm to OccamsStubble
He put Trump’s odds at winning the popular vote at 20% or less
Posted on 11/19/24 at 12:58 pm to OBReb6
quote:
Even his bullshite model had Trump+5-10 or so on probability the week before the election, but he took the Selzer poll so seriously that it made his model shift to Kamala 50.1 to Trump 49.9
He was flipping Kamabla and MAGA back and forth so much that his chart looked like a DNA chain. He does this intentionally in order to grift both the left and the right into his camp, because he's trying to build his new brand after 538 fired his stupid arse. He only pretended to care about the Setzer poll so that he gave his, yet again crossing of the streams, some validity.
He's a fricking griter that needs to be ignored.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 1:02 pm to Midget Death Squad
Not sure why we single him out so much
He's probably more fair than 95% of the prognosticators out there. I think he/his system was wrong in the sense that RCP managed to get it right simply by aggregating, and Nate had very similar results but nonetheless managed to have Kamala scraping by.
I don't really fault anyone for missing the PV.
He's probably more fair than 95% of the prognosticators out there. I think he/his system was wrong in the sense that RCP managed to get it right simply by aggregating, and Nate had very similar results but nonetheless managed to have Kamala scraping by.
I don't really fault anyone for missing the PV.
Posted on 11/19/24 at 1:05 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
He's probably more fair than 95% of the prognosticators out there
stop with this bullshite
Posted on 11/19/24 at 1:06 pm to Pettifogger
He presents himself as THE data nerd
But he wrote a bunch of words and made a bunch of charts all year to end up saying “lol who knows coin flip”
Meanwhile actual nerds analyzing actual data, made specific predictions 1-2 weeks before the election, and were right. Making predictions specific enough like “PA +2.3”, or calling Nevada for Trump 2 weeks in advance when no one thought anything other than it being Trump’s weakest state. And also predicting the popular vote.
There were people out there who made real predictions with real data and showed their work, and none of them got paid for it. So yeah maybe Nate isn’t so bad, until you see that people actually have ways to do this stuff and he just writes fan fiction for subscribers
But he wrote a bunch of words and made a bunch of charts all year to end up saying “lol who knows coin flip”
Meanwhile actual nerds analyzing actual data, made specific predictions 1-2 weeks before the election, and were right. Making predictions specific enough like “PA +2.3”, or calling Nevada for Trump 2 weeks in advance when no one thought anything other than it being Trump’s weakest state. And also predicting the popular vote.
There were people out there who made real predictions with real data and showed their work, and none of them got paid for it. So yeah maybe Nate isn’t so bad, until you see that people actually have ways to do this stuff and he just writes fan fiction for subscribers
This post was edited on 11/19/24 at 1:08 pm
Posted on 11/19/24 at 1:08 pm to NawlinsTiger9
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